Liffey8 TopstepTrader Combine Journal

Quote from satchel:

Good Luck Liffy. Looks like you wait it out for your best setup per day. One shot and done.

Your avg loss #, while still lower than avg win, reads somewhat high.

If you are going to be shooting at 50%, which is fine, then the payoff ratio should not be close to "1".

to date your w/l size ratio is 835/727=1.148. Get that ratio higher if possible while not changing your strat mid-combine.[\b] That number is showing the relationship of your reward to the level of risk you are taking. And trading is about keeping that risk low, and even more so with these combine rules.

Improving average loss #, only for certain strats I use average bars per trade, i.e. if the average bars of losing trades is 9 bars or 21 bars or whatever, this is good info to access if a trade is going nowhere. An n-bar exit can lead to curve-fitting.


Keep rolling.
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Interesting concept, I think a lot of the problems I have here derive from trading on too long a time frame and from trading overly big size. My time in a winner is much much longer than my time in a loser (88 mins avg versus 32 mins avg as of yesterday) so I don't think running winners is the issue, I need to tighten my downside. My risk that I take on my trades is too much given the relative daily moves (ie the potential upside isn't enough to justify my risk level)
 
Quote from Liffey8:

Day 2 (9 August)

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This is a hateful trade because I was right about the overall trend, but it just stopped me out before staging a massive rally.

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like garachen said to me once, if you think you are right you will loose... trading has little to do with being right or wrong... and he was quite correct on that assessment..
 
Quote from nazzdack:

4) You appear to be able to trade profitably. The combine rules make the task tougher. If you can tighten down the protective stops, all the better. :cool:
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Might I suggest manually trailing your stops to reduce risks? i.e. if the trade moves your way move the stop to the most recent swing. Maybe you're already doing this...
 
Quote from julycotton:

Might I suggest manually trailing your stops to reduce risks? i.e. if the trade moves your way move the stop to the most recent swing. Maybe you're already doing this...
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Hi I am already doing this
 
ok so here it is after day 8. Sorry I haven't been putting up screenshots the last 3 days, I have been working from a different PC.

I've made a little profit this week, but nothing remarkable.

My stats have improved because I got short the crude on Monday and held it nearly 4 hours, which boost the average win/loss time.

I did no trades yesterday (20th), but am optimistic for today because 106.60 held (support turned resistance).

Overall plan for today would be to sell a bounce.
 

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One trade yesterday, saw a bearish triangle and went with the break, it turned and stopped me out for $920. It then sold off.

Beginning to conclude that on future Combines I should trade the mini contract and run less risk. $20 a tick is to heavy given my longer term trading style.
 

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2 trades today.

Trade 1 (see attached chart). I bought very low, aiming for a pop at the 104.50 level. Market rallied then came back down. I had trailed my stop to entry and got out at scratch.

Trade 2, when it broke 104.50 (eventually), I worked an order to buy the dip (resistance-turned-support) and did so. I exited at the end of the day at 105.07 (20.58 London time) for 1160 profit.

Combine balance is now 52,070. Target is 53,500.
 

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