Leuthold´s Grizzly Short Fund : don´t buy fund anymore

[ASusilovic]

March 4 (Bloomberg) -- Steve Leuthold, whose Grizzly Short Fund returned 74 percent last year betting against U.S. stocks, said now is the time to purchase equities because the economy isn’t headed for a major contraction.

“These comparisons people make with the Great Depression are totally out of touch with reality, and pretty stupid,” Leuthold told Bloomberg Television in an interview today. “We’ve been in much worse, much more panicked and more scary situations in the U.S.”

The economy isn’t as bad as it was in 1974, when stocks began rebounding, he added. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index will surge to at least 1,000 in 2009, Leuthold said. That would represent a gain of 44 percent from yesterday’s 12-year low of 696.33.

Because a rally is likely, investors shouldn’t buy his Grizzly Short Fund, Leuthold said. It has returned 26 percent in 2009.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a4OJUF46wZ6c&refer=home

 

[makloda]

This guy ought to be commended. Honesty is a rare feat on Wall St.

 

[Wayne Gibbous]

Stunned when I saw this.

Seems like very few short guys ever say that...

 

[Pekelo]

The better question is:

Is he closing the fund or switching to long or at least staying in cash? After all he already made the return for the year...

 

[Cutten]

One characteristic of secular bear markets is that they sucker even former bears into getting bullish too soon.

Livermore made a fortune on the short side early in the 1929+ bear market. By the end of the Depression he was broke from bottom fishing. ALL investors get long too early in the really big bear markets like 1929-32, Asia 1998, Japan 1990-2009 etc.

 

[S2007S]

Glad he is extremely positive about equities but wouldnt anyone else be if they had a double digit return for 2008 and 2009, I disagree with his prediction of s&p @ 1000, there is just no way possible that feat can be achieved in 2009.

 

[TGregg]

Quote from Steve Leuthold:
“We’ve been in much worse, much more panicked and more scary situations in the U.S.”

When would that have been?

 

[makloda]

Quote from S2007S:I disagree with his prediction of s&p @ 1000, there is just no way possible that feat can be achieved in 2009.

Markets had a 50% bear market rally within the 90% decline 1929-1933. A rally to 1000 would be a 44% rally. "No way possible" is a little far fetched. It has happened before.

 

[ASusilovic]

Quote from makloda:

Markets had a 50% bear market rally within the 90% decline 1929-1933. A rally to 1000 would be a 44% rally. "No way possible" is a little far fetched. It has happened before.

From time to time there are bear market mega rallies...

 

[S2007S]

Quote from makloda:

Markets had a 50% bear market rally within the 90% decline 1929-1933. A rally to 1000 would be a 44% rally. "No way possible" is a little far fetched. It has happened before.

agree with huge bear market rallies however s&p 500 to 1000 in 2009 is NOT happening.