Letter from Paul Tudor Jones

cutten's argument is compelling.
I favored it for years.

But, I have watched sector after sector of our economy targeted.
As each industry toppled I have noticed that wal mart costco,food, and oil are not so cheap anymore.

The great deal I was getting is not so good.
When China started making good tennis racquets out of carbon fiber their racquets were approx 140 dollars while the amerian made carbon fibers were 210 to 240.

Now almost all the racquets are made in china and they seem to be getting closer to the old prices every year.

They have systematically targeted our industries and then when we are no longer make products in that industry prices go up. do not blame them they just copied japan's and korea's mode growth through export model. But wal mar is not so cheap anymore.
 
Quote from Ghost of Cutten:

Yes, producers are not immune to the lures of the market. They were fully hedged at 250 and now want to dehedge at 1380. At the top, some of them will probably be buying GC futures to get extra exposure :D
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Well, I do think NEM's top mgmt is a bit smarter than that...but stranger things have happened.
 
Sometimes ago I posted an question about the US/RMB black market exchange rates from 1988-94 on an overseas Chinese website at a suggestion of a friend. So far I have four replies, three are in English and one in Chinese. The replies are here

"1:8.2? "

"as i recall, the black market rate reached as high as 1:11 in shanghai area back in 1988. in 1993 when i went back to visit, it fell to somewhere around 1:8.2."

The third one is in Chinese and I asked my friend to translate it into English, which he did.
"1:10.5-11. In 1993 the black market was 1:10. At that time the investor immigration to US required $1 million and so I spent more than
10 millions RMB. But foreign currency was restricted and I had to first go to Hong Kang and then New York.


"Not long ago I used the information from the following website to get a ballpark value of an M&A deal forged in 1992. I was able to get the exchange rate between U.S. dollars and the foreign currency of interest. I believe you can get RMB-to-USD exchange rates starting 1990. The website is pretty handy and helpful, and I have used it when making international travel arrangements too. However, I'm not sure to what extent you may rely on it. I certainly would not cite it as an authoritative source.
http://www.x-rates.com/cgi-bin/hlookup.cgi"
(the website is the official rate)


Obviously the exchange rate black market was not just for the small fishes, a big fish also used it to exchange 10 million RMB into US dollars for the purpose of immigration.

To summarize, three mentioned that the 1 US dollars were worth at least 8.2 RMB. In particular, one mentioned that $1 = 10 RMB in 1988. The other one pointed to a website in which the official rate is listed.

The website I used is here
http://www.mayacafe.com/forum/topic1sp.php3?tkey=1288656445
 
Quote from Ghost of Cutten:

Presumably PTJ was talking about the official FX rate - you know, the FX market traded internationally by banks and funds, rather than the black market operation run by some shady-looking dude, dealing in chump change with tourists in a back alley behind the local chicken market.
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Cutten: I believe Chinese RMB is still not traded outside of China.
 
Quote from jem:

cutten's argument is compelling.
I favored it for years.

But, I have watched sector after sector of our economy targeted.
As each industry toppled I have noticed that wal mart costco,food, and oil are not so cheap anymore.

The great deal I was getting is not so good.
When China started making good tennis racquets out of carbon fiber their racquets were approx 140 dollars while the amerian made carbon fibers were 210 to 240.

Now almost all the racquets are made in china and they seem to be getting closer to the old prices every year.

They have systematically targeted our industries and then when we are no longer make products in that industry prices go up. do not blame them they just copied japan's and korea's mode growth through export model. But wal mar is not so cheap anymore.
More...

Let's not forget the service sector was going to be the new economy which replaces all of those lost mfg. jobs. Now the service sector, thanks to technology and more outsourcing is moving to India. Tax and Legal work moving abroad. And as I questioned before, which no one can answer, what laws protect us from identity theft and intellectual property theft overseas. My guess is none.
 
Quote from jem:

cutten's argument is compelling.
I favored it for years.

But, I have watched sector after sector of our economy targeted.
As each industry toppled I have noticed that wal mart costco,food, and oil are not so cheap anymore.

The great deal I was getting is not so good.
When China started making good tennis racquets out of carbon fiber their racquets were approx 140 dollars while the amerian made carbon fibers were 210 to 240.

Now almost all the racquets are made in china and they seem to be getting closer to the old prices every year.

They have systematically targeted our industries and then when we are no longer make products in that industry prices go up. do not blame them they just copied japan's and korea's mode growth through export model. But wal mar is not so cheap anymore.
More...
Isn't it pointless to buy a carbon fiber racquet made in china?
It's like buying a mercedes made in china.
If you want something cheap buy chinese. If you want quality buy American or European.
If you want a carbon fiber one you are demanding quality.
 
Cervelo bicycles are made of carbon fiber and used in the Tour de France by the worlds best. They have all been made in China for years now. This is a high-end product costing $2-8k for the bicycle.

There is more foreign content in a GM car then a new Kia made in Georgia...
 
Quote from Pekelo:

Well, duh. Once you have a position, you need other people taking the same position for the price to move your way....

I bet he doesn't talk about what he WILL do next....
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tghter than a NY .... finding a dollar on the street in midtown during rush hour...

iow, not a chance....

but after the fact, sure!!!!!
 
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