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Yes I did edit that
, was hoping to hear from you sooner. Problem is, you can't argue winners posted minutes in advance. We all want to make money right? Lets have some fun.
Let's Trade III, by Sicktrader
- Thread starter sicktraderII
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Yes I did edit that
, was hoping to hear from you sooner. Problem is, you can't argue winners posted minutes in advance. We all want to make money right? Lets have some fun.
Look aside from everything else, I drink waaaay too much. Any post after about 5:30 should be taken with a grain of salt. I am here for kicks, and to help the few people who haven't been brainwashed yet.
By the way, what the fuck is "blowing up my account". I don't speak "trader talk", so I am not used to the term. Whatever that may be, it probably hasn't happened to me. Have I had big strings of losers, sure, we all have. If I lose many in a row, and my account goes to 1/2 my starting balance, which happens about twice a year, I pony up more cash to get it back to where it started with. Wouldn't call that "blowing up", just part of the ride. If I am cashing out between once and twice a month, it is all cool in my mind. Looking at my stats for just the past two weeks, I am +36 points per contract, and have cashed out twice in that period. That is how everyone needs to do it, most here have read to much and are brainwashed.
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Quote from MandelbrotSet:
2 or 3 pts on the ES add up pretty quickly, especially when using his, (albeit insane) money management formula.
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NoDoji is correct.
I'm really trying not to post on Sick's journal anymore to help with the inane back'n'forth, so sorry for the long post, but you have to understand that his money management strategy is COMPLETELY sound. If you donât think so, then you arenât keeping an open mind to analysis. You are taking conventional truths and not playing out the scenarios. Or you are "brainwashed" like he says.
1) Like NoD said, it has to have a win rate something above 42 to 45.5% to be effective. It does in theory.
2) Itâs NOT over-leveraged since he has already indicated he will add to the account to keep it up . . . and before you blow a gasket . . . Iâve calculated all the possible additional contributions that would need to be made to the account with statistical strings of losers at a 50% win rate and a R:R of 1.5 . . . and itâs not very significant. It never gets over $2,000. So you may have to add $2k to make $10-20k, so what? Thatâs not being overleveraged. And no, it's not "blowing up your account".
Sicktrader said something most of you did not catch on to . . . he said something like âIf I have to add $40k to make $300k, whatâs wrong with that.â Hard to really understand if you donât have the math model to study.
3) Assuming that your capital contribution is actually greater than a measly $700, you are still starting with a small number, so it doesnât affect your psychology much . . . so the notion of scaling up with number of contracts is very easy to deal with . . . and Iâve run the numbers, one doesnât have to scale up a crazy amount.
A $20k result is by no means a given, but with certain win/loss distributions with a system that truly has a run rate of 50% over the long term, it's 110% possible under many, many scenarios.
I built a risk model that generates random trade outcomes and you would be shocked how sound this money management approach is. Sure, it can actually lose money in theory. . . but the win rate has to fall below 45% and experience certain distributions of win/loss sequences .
Iâm not defending Sicktrader . . . I canât vouch for anyone after meeting them on the internet a few days ago. But Iâm defending basic math and psychology.
Donât tell me Iâm an idiot and full of crap . . . I wonât share my risk model â itâs too damn good â but PM me if you have doubts and I will shed some light.
Keep trading.
JScott
Quote from MandelbrotSet:
2 or 3 pts on the ES add up pretty quickly, especially when using his, (albeit insane) money management formula.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NoDoji is correct.
I'm really trying not to post on Sick's journal anymore to help with the inane back'n'forth, so sorry for the long post, but you have to understand that his money management strategy is COMPLETELY sound. If you donât think so, then you arenât keeping an open mind to analysis. You are taking conventional truths and not playing out the scenarios. Or you are "brainwashed" like he says.
1) Like NoD said, it has to have a win rate something above 42 to 45.5% to be effective. It does in theory.
2) Itâs NOT over-leveraged since he has already indicated he will add to the account to keep it up . . . and before you blow a gasket . . . Iâve calculated all the possible additional contributions that would need to be made to the account with statistical strings of losers at a 50% win rate and a R:R of 1.5 . . . and itâs not very significant. It never gets over $2,000. So you may have to add $2k to make $10-20k, so what? Thatâs not being overleveraged. And no, it's not "blowing up your account".
Sicktrader said something most of you did not catch on to . . . he said something like âIf I have to add $40k to make $300k, whatâs wrong with that.â Hard to really understand if you donât have the math model to study.
3) Assuming that your capital contribution is actually greater than a measly $700, you are still starting with a small number, so it doesnât affect your psychology much . . . so the notion of scaling up with number of contracts is very easy to deal with . . . and Iâve run the numbers, one doesnât have to scale up a crazy amount.
A $20k result is by no means a given, but with certain win/loss distributions with a system that truly has a run rate of 50% over the long term, it's 110% possible under many, many scenarios.
I built a risk model that generates random trade outcomes and you would be shocked how sound this money management approach is. Sure, it can actually lose money in theory. . . but the win rate has to fall below 45% and experience certain distributions of win/loss sequences .
Iâm not defending Sicktrader . . . I canât vouch for anyone after meeting them on the internet a few days ago. But Iâm defending basic math and psychology.
Donât tell me Iâm an idiot and full of crap . . . I wonât share my risk model â itâs too damn good â but PM me if you have doubts and I will shed some light.
Keep trading.
JScott
Ahh, perhaps my work here is done. Just want to enlighten a few.
Bravo
Bravo
If anybody puts as much thought in this as JScott, you should get to the same conclusion. You don't have to have the 3-2 strategy that I have, that is not the point, but you need to keep your percentages in line. If your strategy is a 10 pt win, then that should be about 15%-20% of your bankroll, so for that strategy you would probably need about 2.5K to start. Keep your losses around 10%. So fucking simple.
No, I add a contract about every $715, and I cash out when I double. BUT, with my trading system a $150 win averages out to the 15%-20% where I want my win to be. Perhaps YOU have a sytem with a diferent point spread, maybe the 10 point winner. Just keep your percentages the same, no different.
I may go back to my gambling forums now. Wait, I can't, banned from all three of those too. 
I have met some real wackjobs in forumville, and this place certainly has the most. I think my gambling buds can make much more coin than you guys here. Would take that bet any day.
I have met some real wackjobs in forumville, and this place certainly has the most. I think my gambling buds can make much more coin than you guys here. Would take that bet any day.
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