Don't worry man, I don't understand most of it. But I keep going back and re-reading, and each time it becomes a bit more clearer every iteration.
Lets talk variance
- Thread starter .sigma
- Start date
Don't worry man, I don't understand most of it. But I keep going back and re-reading, and each time it becomes a bit more clearer every iteration.
I was 95% verticals for 5-7 years, and only dabbled in calendars -- more for education than income. But this was at VIXs of <10-15
, not the 2020 environment. So my variance radar is set to • whether
• how much/which side
• where, specifically
Being able to target like that helped immensely.
And there's DouchBaggio The Gutless Poop-stick, shining in like shit in sunlight, to contribute 
another great bit of his/her "thoughts." So, sign in under your own name yet, Gutless? Out any transvestites recently? You are a piece of work, dude. What's your latest fling-o-shit? "Why don't you just die and save a respirator for the rest of us?" How do you hit <send> without realizing what a piece-of-garbage image you present to the world?
another great bit of his/her "thoughts." So, sign in under your own name yet, Gutless? Out any transvestites recently? You are a piece of work, dude. What's your latest fling-o-shit? "Why don't you just die and save a respirator for the rest of us?" How do you hit <send> without realizing what a piece-of-garbage image you present to the world?
Last edited:
lol but it isn't.
And there's DouchBaggio The Gutless Poop-stick, shining in like shit in sunlight, to contribute
I am a a lot more fit than your BF:
https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/hit-my-pr.340285/
Last edited:
You are a lot smarter.
Tom whats this about?
Gosh, what was that all about? At least have the courtesy of posting porn instead of this - BDSM/spanking images are especially suitable for the options forum, fixed income is more about painful anal sex etc.
Let's bring it back to the original topic. Here is a quick overview how positioning in variance swaps effects the cash close in SPX.
At least have the courtesy of posting porn instead of this - BDSM/spanking images are especially suitable for the options forum, fixed income is more about painful anal sex etc.Let's bring it back to the original topic. Here is a quick overview how positioning in variance swaps effects the cash close in SPX.
- Variance swap can be replicated as a strip of options that require delta hedging. In general, hedge funds are short variance swaps to the dealers so the dealers will be short these option strips against the market.
- Most variance swaps are on SPX and have daily observations of the cash close to calculate the realized variance. That means that the dealer who is long a variance swap will have a little straddle starting at cash close yesterday and "expiring" at the cash close today.
- Assuming that the dealer is hedging, she has an outstanding short position in a vanilla option and a daily long position in a "straddle" resulting from the variance swap. As the market moves, the variance "straddle" accumulates delta from long gamma (same direction as the market, e.g. if market is selling off, it's getting shorter delta) while the outstanding options position is going to be accumulating delta in an opposite direction.
- At cash close, the variance straddle "expires" and its delta will be gone. At the same time, the vanilla option position will still have its delta. That means that the dealer has to trade the delta of the vanilla option at the cash close so he's flat for the next daily cycle. E.g. if the market went down, Var swap got short while option hedge got long - so dealer needs to sell when var swap delta disappears at the close.
- As you can see, if the market is down, dealers have to sell. If the market is up dealers have to buy. Since delta change is based on the square of the move times gamma, the bigger the day the more the dealers have to trade. These hedging flows create momentum into the close.
- Now, imagine a situation (very realistic) where var swap gamma is a meaningful portion of the ADV in SPX futures. This creates a situation where the dealers are extending the move into the cash close and there is usually a rebound from cash close to futures close.
- Could you exploit this? You can calculate the expected impact and trade momentum into the close and trade reversion from the close. The trick is figuring out what the expected flows are going to be, of course.