Let's Take a Test Drive by Pay$ense

weeklyanalysis11072009

Monday:
Following last week's slide, upbeat economic data helped stocks finish higher in a seesaw session Monday.
Trading volume fell, however.

Tuesday:
Most major indexes closed higher Tuesday after a late rally erased some losses.
Volume fell across the board.

Wednesday:
Stocks closed mixed Wednesday following a headline-filled session.
NYSE volume edged lower, while Nasdaq trade rose.

Thursday:
Stocks opened strong and finished strong Thursday, boosted by better-than-forecast economic data and optimistic comments from Cisco Systems Chief Executive John Chambers.
Nasdaq, S&P and NYSE indexes regained their 50-day moving averages. The Dow regained 10,000.
Volume receded indicating institutional investors did not back the move.

Friday:
Stocks brushed off worse-than-expected jobs data and scored small gains in a dull session Friday.
Volume finished vastly lower, despite a big economic report.
The IBD 100 added 0.4%. For the week, it rose 5.5% — well above the 3%-plus gains in the major indexes.


Example:
-
Monday
-
KC Hedge STOPS at 1725, 1730.

NQ a 1662.5

50 points is 3%/4.7% or 1.57X (need STOP at 1700)

Is 1X OK - for now yes, since may bounce - *still use STOP.

- may bounce...may not.

1660 to 1666 to 1662 to 1676.
-
Tuesday
-
Investors may now be getting caught up in the *reality* of the Stock Market. STILL watch 1660.

Volume AND indexes UP.
38 points swing.

Stocks reverse from being up in higher volume to DOWN.

36.7k

Still watching 1660.
KCPCCF can make up for lost ground with vault *after* "correction".

Turnover fell on both exchanges, according to preliminary data, indicating that institutional investors remain reluctant to buy stocks.
-
Wednesday
-
Another "mixed"/*inside* day - in lower volume.

1660
1,211.65
UP 37% YTD

Strong overseas action.
Watch resistance at 1690.
*Look to FED and selling into rally.*

STILL tons down in volume - yet we fly!
Nasdaq volume up.

*1686*
Market/volume mixed.
All closed near session lows.
With the market in correction, all buys remain risky.

=Calculate exposure in KC QLD/QID and can ADD some w/STOP.
-
Thursday
-
*1696* So far a 20 point overnight swing.

Wait for the "head"? Just be thankful am not losing money (over) "trading".

36264
1X (about right).

Watch volume.

61346
1700 50 points is 2.94%/4.89%
1.66X

IF the trend won't generate - profits won't materialize.

Volume hasn't jumped markedly with early advance.

Even though market - again - rallied without truly "correcting", my entry was good and new highs are not likely.

- thus far NYSE volume +1%.

1720 - it is a good thing I went tentative - SHORT.

35.4k (from 36.8k)

Am much lightened up - can "wait-and-see".

Can leaders surge from their decimated position(s)?
The IBD 100 leapt 2.6%.
Volume being moderately lower took the confirmed follow-through of the table. Note: CSCO added much volume to the Nasdaq.

Retail numbers came in weak. Tomorrow's unemployment report will be looked at to gauge future consumer spending.

*1719*

Can ADD w/STOP.

=Did bounce off 1660 and *will* form the right shoulder?=

Vix: 25
-
Friday
-
32 point move in a matter of minutes.
85 point *bounce* within a correction.
Use 22.25 for 100 and 22.00 for 150.
60k

Will be about 1X in KC Hedge and .7X in KC QLD/QID.

I lost a bit more and couldn't gain entry.

The pre-market action was "deadly killer". DO NOT BE CONCERNED. Gains will be more than made up - still with "mechanical" system.

Well, with things still elevated - I can still "enter well".

[When it all comes crashing down with head-and-shoulders pattern (ADD at key points along the way).]

35.2k

STILL have froth to work out.
Things are *really* setting up - well.

Sooooo, volume continued to sink to anemic lows on Friday.

1NQ (1730) in KC Hedge w/STOP: 1760
KC QLD/QID: 100 shares (22.30) w/STOP: 22.00. Reduce other to 21.75.

See you there :) http://twitter.com/HedgeFund_Guru.
 
Well I got a lot of followers on Twitter - but won't be incorporating this into business practices, just yet.

I do post random IBD tips and re-Tweet, but sharing with a "following" what I do - right now - is a far cry from where I need to be.

Perhaps in the future I can have a "locked" account to share some of my trading insights - to managed clients.

For now, I'll keep posting here the select weekly IBD criteria I deem useful for my trading strategy.

weeklyanalysis11142009

Monday:
Stocks surged Monday as the G-20 nations pledged to keep stimulus efforts in place. The dollar sold off, while gold and energy issues rallied.
All the major indexes notched a follow-through day, a technical confirmation of a rally that began last week.

Tuesday:
Stocks vacillated to a narrowly mixed finish Tuesday.
Despite the lack on action in the major indexes, some leaders staged nice moves.

Wednesday:
Strong overseas economic data and the Fed's view for continued low interest rates pushed stocks higher Wednesday.
Volume is still anemic.

Thursday:
Stocks turned early gains into big losses Thursday. A rebound in the dollar offset deal news and a bigger-than-expected drop in jobless claims.

Friday:
Stocks fell Friday, but again finished off the worst levels of the session.

weeklyanalysis11212009

Monday:
Stocks jumped into the holiday week on a positive note, but volume was light.
Small caps led the market, with the S&P 600 up 1.9%.

Tuesday:
Conflicting economic signals and uneven trading in commodities left stock indexes slightly lower Tuesday.

Wednesday:
Stocks bounced back Wednesday after slipping in the prior session.

Thursday:
Closed for Thanksgiving.

Friday:
Despite options expiration, volume ended mixed. It rose on the NYSE and fell on the Nasdaq.

weeklyanalysis11282009

Monday:
Stocks jumped into the holiday week on a positive note, but volume was light.
Small caps led the market, with the S&P 600 up 1.9%.

Tuesday:
A downward revision to third-quarter GDP and still-sluggish consumer confidence heading into the holiday shopping season left the major indexes mired in modest losses Tuesday.
Small caps once again fell faster, sending the S&P 600 to a 0.4% decline.
Data showed a late surge in trading volume on the Nasdaq. That handed the tech-heavy index its fourth distribution day in recent weeks.

Wednesday:
A lower dollar and some better-than-expected economic reports bolstered stocks Wednesday.
Volume fell sharply ahead of Thursday's Thanksgiving holiday.

Thursday:
Thanksgiving holiday

Friday:
Dubai debt woes rocked stocks Friday, but the major indexes closed off the worst levels of the short session.
The NYSE composite tumbled 2.2%. It was down as much as 3.1%, but pared losses after finding support at its 50-day moving average.
The Nasdaq also lost 1.7%. It breached its 50-day moving average intraday, but closed above the line.
Due to the half session, volume dropped sharply.

weeklyanalysis12052009

Monday:
Stocks wobbled, but closed at session highs Monday, thanks to a late rally. Worries about holiday spending and fallout from the Dubai crisis pressured equities from the opening bell.
All closed near session highs.
Trading on the NYSE was above average for the first time in nearly a month and the heaviest since Nov. 4.
The IBD 100 rose 0.5% Monday, outperforming the broad market.

Tuesday:
The major indexes welcomed December with determined gains Tuesday.
The Dow made a new closing high for 2009.
The Philadelphia semiconductor index surged 3.2%, closing back above its 50-day moving average.
The major indexes are meeting some resistance around their November peaks.
Leadership has been narrow, with more-volatile Chinese stocks generally making the best gains.
Chinese stocks helped the IBD 100 surge 1.8%.
Meanwhile, fears over debt woes in Dubai continued to fade.

Wednesday:
The Nasdaq outperformed in a wish-washy session Wednesday. A more upbeat assessment of the economy did little for stocks.
Volume fell on both exchanges.
Chinese stocks were again among the biggest winners.
Small caps did some more catching up today.
Meanwhile, the Nasdaq once again tested and then retreated from the 2200 level. That level is providing resistance.
The indexes didn't offer much of a reaction to the beige book news.

Thursday:
Stocks started off well, but finished on a sour note Thursday.
Volume rose on the NYSE, giving the Dow, the NYSE composite and the S&P 500 a distribution day.

Friday:
Stocks rallied Friday after the jobs report came in much stronger than expected, but a surge in the dollar kept gains in check.
Volume spiked across the board.
For the week, the Nasdaq climbed 2.6%, the NYSE composite 1.6%, the S&P 500 1.3% and the Dow 0.8%.

weeklyanalysis12122009

Monday:
Stocks vacillated to a mostly lower finish Monday.
Turnover dropped sharply on both major exchanges.

Tuesday:
The market took on more water Tuesday, with all the major indexes incurring distribution days, according to preliminary data.

Wednesday:
Stocks again wrestled with the dollar Wednesday. Only this time, equities came out on top after the greenback sold off late in the session.
Turnover fell on both exchanges.

Thursday:
Stocks finished moderately higher, as the dollar softened against some major currencies.
NYSE volume fell, while Nasdaq trade rose.

Friday:
Better-than-expected retail sales and sentiment data lifted most indexes Friday.
Volume fell on both exchanges.
For the week, the Dow rose 0.8% and the S&P 500 finished flat. The NYSE composite and Nasdaq gave up 0.8% and 0.2%, respectively.
The IBD 100 fell 0.3%. For the week, it slid 0.7%.

weeklyanalysis12192009

Monday:
Dubai bailout news and Exxon Mobil 's (XOM) buyout of XTO Energy (XTO) boosted stocks Monday.
The Nasdaq rallied 1% to close above the 2200 level for the first time since Nov. 17. That's also a new closing high for the year.
Volume climbed across the board.

Tuesday:
The indexes appeared to suffer a distribution day as stocks slumped lower in modestly higher trade Tuesday.
Volume climbed on both major exchanges. That added a distribution day to all main indexes.

Wednesday:
Major indexes closed mixed after the Fed left interest rates unchanged. The central bank raised their view on the job market, but gave a timeline to end some liquidity programs.

Thursday:
Stocks suffered their biggest hit this month, as the dollar surged. An unexpected jump in jobless claims and weak forecast from FedEx (FDX) also hurt equities Thursday.

Friday:
Techs excelled Friday thanks to upbeat earnings from Research In Motion (RIMM) and Oracle (ORCL). The broader market bounced around but also finished higher.
Volume surged across the board on quadruple witching, the quarterly expiration of stock index futures, stock index options, stock options and single stock futures. Quarterly rebalancing of S&P indexes also boosted turnover.
 
weeklyanalysis12262009

Monday:
Major stock indexes rallied on merger news Monday.
Volume fell sharply on both exchanges. Quadruple witching and S&P rebalancing lifted Friday's turnover.
But the breakout put the markets uptrend back in confirmed mode.

Tuesday:
Stocks rallied on mixed economic data Tuesday, extending their win streak to three sessions.
Volume dropped on both exchanges. Trade is expected to remain light as we get closer to Christmas.

Wednesday:
Stocks brushed off worse-than-expected housing and sentiment data to finish higher for the fourth straight session Wednesday.

Thursday:
Stocks rallied in a short session Thursday, extending the recent win streak to five sessions.
The Nasdaq again led the pack. It tacked on 0.7% to a fresh 15-month high.
For the week, the Nasdaq climbed 3.3%, NYSE composite 2.4%, S&P 2.2% and Dow 1.9%.

Friday:
Xmas Day

weeklyanalysis01022010

Monday:
Major stock indexes extended their winning ways to six straight sessions Monday after a choppy trading day.
Volume surged on both exchanges as traders returned from Christmas.
Volume rose on the Nasdaq and NYSE from Thursday's short session. But tallies for Monday still came in well shy of the average pace, typical end-of-year behavior.

Tuesday:
Stocks dipped after a lackluster, narrow range trading Tuesday. All of the major indexes fell for the first time in seven sessions.

Wednesday:
Major stock indexes closed narrowly mixed in choppy trading Wednesday. A stronger dollar pressured equities.
Nasdaq volume rose, but was still below average. NYSE trade was barely higher.

Thursday:
Stocks fell sharply in the final minutes of trading of 2009, leaving the major indexes lower for the week but with rousing gains for the year.

Friday:
New Year's Day

weeklyanalysis01092010

Monday:
Stocks kicked off 2010 with a bang, with most major indexes hitting 15-month highs.
The NYSE composite jumped 2%, boosted by energy and steel stocks. Chip issues helped lift the Nasdaq 1.7% to a 16-month closing high.

Tuesday:
Stocks closed mixed following a choppy session Tuesday. Most indexes hit new multimonth highs, but the Dow lagged.
Volume surged across the board.

Wednesday:
Stocks drifted to another split close Wednesday after a round of mixed economic data.
Volume fell across the board.

Thursday:
Stocks wavered to their third straight mixed finish Thursday. Lower-than-expected weekly jobless claims boosted sentiment, but equities also battled a higher dollar.
Chips and a few Nasdaq heavyweights fell. The Philadelphia semiconductor index dropped 1.1%.
Volume was mixed, with Nasdaq volume lower and NYSE higher.

Friday:
Stocks shrugged off a worst-than-expected jobs report Friday to close near the best levels of the session.
The Nasdaq climbed 0.7% to a 16-month closing high.
Turnover fell across the board.
For the week, the NYSE composite climbed 3.3%, the S&P 500 2.7%, the Nasdaq 2.1% and the Dow 1.8%.
Chinese issues were again among the session's best performers.

weeklyanalysis01162010

Monday:
Stocks drifted to a mildly mixed finish Monday, with tech stocks lagging. Amazon.com, Research In Motion and Microsoft helped hold the Nasdaq to a 0.2% loss.
Volume dipped on both exchanges.

Tuesday:
Alcoa's earnings miss, Chevron's profit warning and bank worries all hit stocks Tuesday. Some late-session buying shaved losses.
The Philadelphia semiconductor index careened 3.6% lower.
Volume climbed on both major exchanges, giving all the major indexes a distribution day.
The IBD 100 fell 1.9%.

Wednesday:
Stocks snapped back Wednesday, making up nearly all of Tuesday's losses.
The Nasdaq climbed 1.1% while the NYSE composite and S&P 500 rose 0.8% each. And the Dow rallied 0.5%. The blue chip index hit a fresh 15-month high during the session.
But volume fell across the board.

Thursday:
Stocks brushed off an unexpected drop in retail sales and a rise in jobless claims to score modest gains Thursday.
Volume, however, fell on both exchanges for the second straight session.
Some Chinese stocks again lost ground.

Friday:
JPMorgan Chase's rising loan losses and an unexpected drop in consumer sentiment hurt stocks Friday. But a late-session rally eased some of the pain.
The Nasdaq dropped 1.2%, dragged lower by chip stocks. The Philadelphia semiconductor index lost 3.4%.
Options expiration boosted volume on both exchanges.
For the week, the Nasdaq dropped 1.3%, NYSE composite 0.9%, S&P 500 0.8% and Dow 0.1%.

weeklyanalysis01232010

Monday:
MLK Day.

Tuesday:
Stocks bolted higher Tuesday, erasing last week's losses.
Volume dropped sharply on both exchanges.

Wednesday:
China's credit policy concerns, a stronger dollar and mixed bag of earnings and economic reports pressured stocks Wednesday. But the major indexes trimmed a good chunk of losses by the close.
The NYSE composite cut a 2.3% shortfall to 1.5%. But that was still its biggest drop in a month. The Nasdaq trimmed a 2.2% deficit to 1.3%. The Dow and S&P 500 fell 1.1% each.
Volume climbed on both exchanges.
The IBD 100 fell 1.2%.
All the major indexes picked up a distribution day.
Wednesday's action was enough to flip our Market Direction call back to "Caution".

Thursday:
President Obama's call for tighter restrictions on banks sent the market reeling Thursday.
All but the S&P 500 are now down for the year.
Turnover surged on both exchanges, giving all the major indexes another distribution day.

Friday:
U.S. stocks fell hard Friday as bank worries persisted.
The Nasdaq dived 2.7%.
The Philadelphia semiconductor index swooned 5.3% and sliced its 50-day moving average.
Volume fell across the board. But trade was above average on both exchanges. Friday's sell-off changed the outlook to market in correction.
For the week, the NYSE composite dumped 4.4%, Dow 4.1%, S&P 500 3.9% and the Nasdaq shed 3.6%.

p$
 
Some snippets in reverse chronology (notes to myself intraday - less trades, days separated by ",")

Overseas markets hugely tank.

I got STOPPED (1NQ), but I can enter (short) higher.
-
Apple's earnings surge 50%.

Indexes closed well off highs, but still up. Volume pulled back much.
"Old" leaders tank.

Indexes up on volume even lower than Friday.
No real leaders up either.
Can ADD at tomorrow's open.

Indexes gain with volume down.
Thus far a poor response to (3) straight heavy declines.
-
Finally indexes tank into the close. Nasdaq more than catches up with a 2.7% freefall, closing at lows. Volume somehow not higher on a Friday. Some leaders up in accumulation. Nasdaq 100 falls 3% and breaks 50-day M.A. - off 5.5%+. DJIA vulnerable to fall further.

Volume significantly up w/ more distribution.
Now volume has pulled back, but still down.
Still high.

AAPL slices 50-day M.A.
Soxx swooned 5.3%.

OUCH! off again in the early going.

Watch indexes and learn. Nasdaq above support, S&P 500 at support, Dow below support.

Asia tanks.
-
Off 3%.

Plenty of top-rated stocks, however, were getting a thrashing. The IBD 100 carved off 2.2% as several leaders slid below their 50-day moving averages in active trading.

Could this be the first time - in a long while - that market drops steadily throughout the day?

Support breaks! Volume surges.

Now mixed - Nasdaq outperforms again.

Stocks open higher - look to see if can sustain price increase.
Some overseas markets tanked.
-
On Thursday, China will report GDP for the fourth quarter. That could test the market again.

STOPPED (again) out of CC positions. Long-awaited correction pending?

Large volume - WATCH to see if buyers pick up stocks.
Thus far, poor response - yet, holding at support.

Now we gap and move down to yesterday's open?!!

Leaders down MUCH stronger than UP.
-
Sign of an unhealthy market: Severely lower volume with steep gains following higher volume distribution days.

UP significantly (again), but in much lower trade - again limited leader accumulation.

*STILL* have to wait for "correction". Leaders?
- will be interesting going further.

Computer hardware and software behemoth IBM (IBM) is slated to report quarterly results after today's close.

Market opens "mixed".
-
NQ jumps 15 points on MLK day, ES 4 points.

Watch SPX 1130 level - may need to ADD (too late).

p$
 
weeklyanalysis01302010

Monday:
Indexes settled for modest gains after weak December home sales whittled away the market's early gains.
Turnover was sharply lower across the board.

Tuesday:
Stocks bounced around but ended lower after a late-session sell-off Tuesday.
The Nasdaq fell 0.3%. The tech-heavy index came within less than a point of retaking its 50-day moving average, but then faltered. All major indexes hit new lows for the month.
Volume climbed on both exchanges.
Chinese stocks were among the hardest hit.

Wednesday:
Stocks reversed higher Wednesday after the Fed stood pat on interest rates and slightly upgraded its view of the economy.
Stocks reversed higher Wednesday after the Fed stood pat on interest rates and slightly upgraded its view of the economy.
Meanwhile, the S&P 500 gained 0.5%. It nearly touched resistance at the 1100-level.
Volume climbed on both exchanges.

Thursday:
Worries over Greece's financial crisis, worse-than-expected jobless claims and headline durable orders along with a weak outlook from Qualcomm (QCOM) sent stocks reeling Thursday. The major indexes ended off session lows, but still closed at new lows for the year.
Apple (AAPL) soured 4% and sliced its 50-day moving average. Chip issues also crumbled. The Philadelphia semiconductor index dropped 3%.
Meanwhile, the S&P 500 dropped 1.2%. It traded a hair above the 1100 level, but then reversed lower.
Volume ended mixed with Nasdaq sharply higher and NYSE lower.

Friday:
Stocks had a big change of heart Friday, turning lower despite a round of upbeat economic data. Major indexes finished down for the week and month.
Techs led the sell-off, with the Nasdaq shedding 1.5%. The Philadelphia semiconductor index dived 3.4%.
Volume jumped on both exchanges.
For the week, the Nasdaq dropped 2.6%, NYSE composite 2.1%, S&P 500 1.7% and Dow 1%. For the month, the NYSE composite lost 4.2%, S&P 500 3.7% and Dow 3.5%. The Nasdaq crumbled 5.4%, its worst monthly loss since February 2009.

p$
 
weeklyobservations01202010
(reverse chrono)

Can adjust NQ STOP & QID STOPS
-
Indexes tumble (again) in higher trade.
Indexes now all in the red in higher trade.

WATCH NDX at this level.
Market split right now.

Watch NYSE, DJIA & SPX.
UP in lower volume.

Asia slips again.
-
Evaluate holdings in the morning.

Support broken...fade the rallies.
Nasdaq volume UP.
Major Nasdaq distribution (most of the jump in Nasdaq volume was due to huge trade in Qualcomm).

Top-rated stocks struggled Thursday. The IBD 100 fell 1.5%.

Still hitting upper resistance; 1820, 1100
support has become resistance.
-
Market opens mixed. Still mixed.
Whatever happened today was in light trade.
Late-day surge from financials?
NDX now testing 50-day M.A.
Had pulled back from highs.

10 point (overnight) NQ swing.

At next (lower) support.

FOMC rate decision today.
ASIA sinks again.
-
Try and get in at the open: (3x) testing support.

What happened? Market (again) dumped into the close.
Volume increased as indexes tanked into a lower close.

*STILL* muted gains (correction).

No real leaders being accumulated.
I will watch and see where the market goes by the close.

Rallying now in lower volume.
Gains still muted.
-
p$
 
weeklyanalysis02062010

Monday:
The major indexes all closed high in their trading ranges as strong manufacturing data and a soft dollar boosted energy and commodities to lead the market.
Volume remained soft throughout the session, providing little fodder for the bulls.

Tuesday:
Stocks' gains in higher volume Tuesday were an encouraging sign after Monday's low-volume advance.
Indexes were up on strong housing data. The market's two-day streak was the best in nearly three months. On Tuesday, the Dow gained 1.1%, the Nasdaq 0.9%, the S&P 500 and the NYSE composite 1.3%. Volume rose across the board.
Action among leaders was also generally positive Tuesday. The IBD 100 rose 1%.

Wednesday:
Stocks closed mixed Wednesday amid split economic data and a rebound in the dollar.
Volume fell on both major exchange.

Thursday:
Global debt worries and an unexpected rise in jobless claims hammered stocks Thursday.
The NYSE composite shed 3.6%, the S&P 500 3.1% and the Nasdaq 3%. The Dow lost 2.6%. It managed to close above the 10,000 mark after breaching that level intraday.
Volume jumped across the board.
Nine-six stocks in the IBD 100 fell, with many in heavy trade.

Friday:
Stocks staged a huge comeback to close mostly on the plus-side Friday.
Volume climbed on both exchanges.
The Nasdaq climbed 0.7% after falling as much as 1.2%. It found support at the 2100 level.

weeklyanalysis02132010

Monday:
U.S. Markets were closed in observance of the President's Day holiday.

Tuesday:
U.S. stocks started the week strong, with the major indexes logging gains of more than 1%. But volume lagged, showing a lack of conviction.

Wednesday:
Stocks added to Tuesday's big gains with a moderate uptick. This time, however, they did so with volume rising across the board.

Thursday:
Stocks advanced Thursday, but volume once again dropped off.

Friday:
Stocks settled slightly higher Friday in the first session following the Federal Reserve's surprise discount-rate hike.
Volume rose partly due to options expiration.
The IBD 100 rose 0.2% and 3.6% for the week. The S&P 500 gained 3.1% for the week; the Dow and NYSE composite 3% each; and the Nasdaq 2.8%. It was one of the market's best weeks of the year.

weeklyanalysis02202010

Monday:
U.S. Markets were closed in observance of the President's Day holiday.

Tuesday:
U.S. stocks started the week strong, with the major indexes logging gains of more than 1%. But volume lagged, showing a lack of conviction.
The Dow gained 1.7%, the S&P 500 1.8%, the NYSE composite 2% and the Nasdaq 1.4%. Preliminary figures showed volume lower across the board.

Wednesday:
Stocks added to Tuesday's big gains with a moderate uptick. This time, however, they did so with volume rising across the board.

Thursday:
Stocks logged their third straight day of gains despite mixed economic data.
Preliminary volume indicated trading was lighter, denting the day's gains.
The Fed increased its discount rate, the rate banks pay the Fed for short-term loans, after the close Thursday. The Nasdaq 100- and S&P 500-tracking ETFs were about 0.8% lower in after-hours trading.

Friday:
Stocks closed modestly higher Friday after bouncing from an afternoon slide
Volume rose, according to preliminary readings.
After-hours action was calm Friday with no notable economic news or companies reporting.

weeklyanalysis02272010

Monday:
Some high-rated stocks made sharp moves in after-hours trading following earnings reports late Monday.

Tuesday:
A big drop in consumer confidence handed stocks their biggest losses in more than two weeks Tuesday.
The Nasdaq shed 1.3% and sliced its 50-day moving average.
The IBD 100 slipped in line with the general market, down 1.1%. More than 80% of its components fell.

Wednesday:
Stocks rose for the first time in three sessions Wednesday, as Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke pledged to keep interest rates low for an "extended period" of time.
The Nasdaq climbed 1%, closing back above its 50-day moving average by a narrow margin.
Volume fell on both exchanges, mitigating the comeback.

Thursday:
Greek debt woes and some worse-than-expected economic data slammed stocks Thursday, but equities finished well off their worst levels of the session.
Volume climbed across the board.

Friday:
Stocks finished with small gains Friday after a slew of mixed economic data.
Volume fell on the Nasdaq and rose on the NYSE.
Stocks dipped on the week, but finished the month on the plus side. The Nasdaq jumped 4.2%, S&P 500 2.8%, Dow 2.6% and NYSE composite 2.2%.

p$
 
weeklyobservations01272010
(reverse chrono)

Asia slightly higher.
GDP weak on sales.
Market opens mixed.
Market up, but volume way down.
Unremarkable end to an unremarkable week.
Running up against overhead resistance.
No leadership.
-
Asia drops.
Market opens starkly lower.
Trade extremely heavy (+39% & 65%).
Nasdaq at 2200 level.
Volume *only* modestly higher, now. It rose 4% on the NYSE and 9% on the Nasdaq compared to the same period Wednesday.
No stocks accumulation by institutions today.
Market picks itself up off the canvas...apparently linked to the dollar.
Market ends with distribution, settling up under resistance.
Volume accelerated with the rebound.
The mixed signals continue.
-
Asia flat.
Volume down w/early gains.
Volume way down - esp Nasdaq, indexes sharply up.
Minor leader accumulation.
What took a lot of distribution to drag indexes lower - came back almost instantly today in no volume.
Looks like a surge of volume with jump, yet still lower with indexes up about 1%.
No follow-through, but closed near highs in lighter trade.
The Nasdaq fell back below its 50-day moving average.
-
Market declines sharply as institutions tip their hand after consumer confidence plunges. Volume jumps - market confirms to the downside, now below recent support.
Soxx drops 3.1%.
More selling of leaders.
Many tech bellwethers trading lower.
SPX loses 1103, nasdaq nearing 2200.
Market closes near lows.
Oil rally fizzles.
-
Asia up strong.
Minor, if any, gains today.
Volume light again - pulls way back.
NO leaders in volume.
Stocks still basing, but stocks that correct 40%+ usually fail plus volume at right side is best when strong. Sales growth has slowed, too.
Market ends down in lower volume.

weeklyobservations01202010
(reverse chrono)

Opened down on surprise discount rate cut.
Closed with modest gains.
Did not close at highs.
Volume increased - especially NYSE.
Despite higher volume in the major indexes, top-rated stocks were mostly quiet Friday.
Many leaders down Friday.
Despite expiration, volume only slightly rose.
-
Watch to see if we can burst (again) through the 50-day MA.
Indexes open mixed in lighter trade.
At resistance for SPX, Nasdaq and DJIA.
No leadership (except PCLN) again today.
Thus far minor gains in lower volume.
Leadership waned.
Break out. Institutions still have not stepped in.
Third straight day of gains.
Trading was lighter.
The Nasdaq edged over its 50-day moving average for the first time since Jan. 21.
Has traded below average for (3) days.
Among top-rated stocks, action was light to nonexistent. But the IBD 100 rose 1.4% (mainly due to PCLN).
-
At resistance (2226, 10300)
Halfway thru the session and stocks still hanging in there.
Rangebound.
Small gains - still at resistance. . .in lighter NYSE trade (slight Nasdaq volume gain).
No leadership (still).
Still, the market closed (again) at the highs.
Many leaders down in volume, too.
Small-cap S&P 600 Index re-took its 50-day MA
-
Thus far, not going much of anywhere (resistance).
Indexes (again) ramp up in light trade.
Look to see if they break through resistance in higher trade.
Watch to see if reverses from here.
NYSE jumps in (thus far) lighter trade.
Interestingly Nasdaq with less gains has higher volume.
UP/DOWN stocks in volume about the same.
Volume has tailed off from even Friday's levels - showing a lack of conviction.
Volume ended *way* less (NYSE -14%, Nasdaq -9%) with very strong gains.
SPX +1.8%, NYSE +2%, NDX +1.3%, IBD 100 +1.5%.
Commodity and banking stocks led the market.
Commodities continue to soar on a weakened dollar.
No leadership, still.
Indexes closed at or near session highs for a third straight session.
NY Mfg. survey's steep gain due to inventory not new orders (declined sharply).

weeklyobservations01132010
(reverse chrono)

Adjust/STOPS.
Resistance? About a 50% retracement of yesterday's action.
Still hasn't lost support. Dow now loses 10,000.
Indexes open down 1%+ in much higher trade.
Nasdaq outperforming.
Erratic (again) trade after early drop...still hanging around.
WATCH Nasdaq overhead resistance.
Indexes move (again) strongly off lows.
Volume tails off.
Still no real leadership.
Market turns mixed: distribution with NYSE, accumulation with Nasdaq. With volume waning, watch movement into the close.
Back above support.
Watch what happens at new overhead resistance.
First attempt at holding highs, rejected.
It ran (again) back up toward highs.
NYSE indexes underperform.
Volume has slowed with intraday gains.
Indexes again reacting to dollar moves (unhealthy).
NYSE indexes show distribution. Higher volume gains for Nasdaq.
Select accumulation of stocks/rotation out of others.
The small-cap S&P 600 and the midcap S&P 400 rose 0.8% each.
-
1063
1743
9987
After early tentativeness, the market spurts ahead: working on a follow-through.
SPX underperforms, Nasdaq outperforms.
Nasdaq 100 REALLY outperfoms, Vxn falls.
Volatility still high.
Watch volume.
Big swing in the dollar.
Could be short-covering, Nasdaq volume less than even yesterday's weather-dampened trade. NYSE now flat to slightly up.
Again leadership suspect.
*watch* each tick into the close.
Stocks soar on word of Greek bailout.
I do not get it - midday gains in miniscule trade!
Still no conviction, but hanging around.
NDX follow-through.
4 & 5% increase in volume (stayed low).
Volume higher than Day 4, but less than Day 3 on NYSE.
Still no "real" leadership.
Closed at session highs.
-
Market opens mixed.
NDX's recent rise "looks" more erratic than the previous one.
Thus far directionless.
Significant plunge - losing support - and bounce off lows.
Nasdaq volume up, NYSE down.
After early session drop - indexes have recovered most losses...
Volume now significantly down across the board.
Indecisive market closes modestly lower.
A heavy snow storm back East dampened trading volume on both exchanges.
-
Indexes up (again) in meager trade.
Day 3 of a rally attempt.
Institutions may come in and move this market forward.
Loses 10,000 - again.
NDX drops 20 points from high.
Does it *usually* take this long to drop to the next level?
1063, 1067, 1064
1747, 1753, 1750
It happens often - to ignore Day 3.
Basically gone nowhere after bounce Friday.
Indexes "finding" (found) support at Dow 10,040, SPX 1071. Nasdaq reclaims 2140 and perhaps 2152.
Again, no real surge in leadership.
Talk of Greek rescue unleashes bulls.
Closed off highs at support.
Dow out-performs.
Still more stocks SOLD than BOUGHT by institutional investors.
-
We have been successful in pulling off system lows.
DJIA is underperforming in the early going in erratic trade.
Rally off lows, thus far fairly muted.
Gains continue, but NDX not (yet) moving ahead of Nasdaq.
Will the rally run into resistance?
[Fortunately, I got into the downtrend early - perhaps gains will not turn into losses.]
Market "mixed" but still rallying (fade?).
Volume WAY down with gains.
Still no real leadership - but UP vs DOWN are now about equal.
Volume still sharply lower.
Market pretty much unchanged. Rally attempt failed (did not run up).
Rather auspicious start to the new week with the Dow tumbling into the close ending sub-10,000.
The major indexes closed at session lows.
Can't read much into today's action as volume was scant.
Technically the market is still working on an attempted rally.
Now NYSE volume is sharply UP (still muted) as indexes suddenly forge new highs from lows.

weeklyobservations01062010
(reverse chrono)

Asia tumbles again.
Indexes trying to rally off lows.
Watch trend line.
NDX well off highs.
Nasdaq volume interesting down.
Today's "rebound" still muted - fade.
Volume today give some cause for concern: NYSE totals did increase with 33 point (NQ) bounce...on a Friday.
Looks like Nasdaq tried to hold at support with program buying coming in. Watch for wash-out.
-
Indexes open substantially lower.
Watch to see if weakness persists into close.
Volume up w/ decline.
Precipitous fall in heavy trade - not the kind of action that enlivens bulls.
Closed at the lows.
-
Nasdaq holding on to losses.
ES lost 1100: how many "tests" will we have?
There is resistance here, thus far not a *huge* move.
No leaders moving to the fore today.
Volume down w/ minor losses.
Again watch into the close.
NDX now leading to the upside.
No "real" leadership or volume, yet.
Market *still* mixed, yet NQ has now "bounced" 50 points off lows.
Yet, not a whole lot of leverage into this move up.
Basically Nasdaq played catch-up with yesterday's S&P gain.
Session was volatile and closed off highs.
Ended mixed, volume closed down again.
-
Market opens up, now mixed. Trade thus far sketchy - again.
Watch 1100 and market into close.
Indexes jump - but volume not *that* strong.
Gains not *that* strong, but rallying (again).
Did see this coming (add later? no. Just into gains.)
But can ADD if 75 QID get STOPPED.
YM trade gain moves to a loss. Am thankful for NQ gain(s) - (diversification helps).
Thank God for entries and exits.
Rules are in place!!!
Watch Nasdaq 100 STOPS.
More gains, Nasdaq muted.
AMZN takes a big hit.
Did 1100 now become support?
Vix: 21
Volume did come in.
Still no leadership (AMSC sank despite solid earnings).
SO FAR...price losses are not bad (gap up will hurt).
-
Watch for possible bearish close - No.
The IBD 100 climbed 1.5%, staying abreast of the market.
Most leaders that broke out of bases the past couple of weeks have stalled or come under strong selling.
Can ADD to shorts at open.
Market up but in sketchy trade.
Volume way down again with gains.
Leaders up are not strong.
 
weeklyanalysis03202010

Monday:
Stocks avoided a distribution day Monday as volume remained too low on the Nasdaq and NYSE.

Tuesday:
Stocks were calm in after-hours trade Tuesday, following a solid finish in improved volume.

Wednesday:
Benign inflation data and a lower dollar helped push stocks higher Wednesday, though some late-session selling trimmed gains.
Volume rose on both major exchanges.

Thursday:
Stocks backed off from session highs and found themselves mostly lower in late trading.
Few leading stocks were active in evening trading Thursday as the market looked to a quadruple witching session Friday.

Friday:
Stocks were quiet after the market closed. The major indexes closed higher for the week despite Friday's sell-off.
The IBD 100 was down 1.3% as most components came under selling.
For the week, the Dow climbed 1.1%, the S&P 500 0.9%, the NYSE composite and Nasdaq 0.3% each.

weeklyanalysis03132010

Monday:
Techs extended gains Monday, while the other indexes took a breather after last week's big gains.
The Nasdaq notched an 18-month high.
Turnover fell across the board.

Tuesday:
Stocks closed up on this anniversary of the March 2009 market bottom. But a round of late selling erased the bulk of the day's gains.

Wednesday:
The major stock indexes added to recent gains Wednesday.
NYSE volume rose, while Nasdaq trade slipped.
The Philadelphia semiconductor index gained 2.2% to a near-two-month high.

Thursday:
Stocks shrugged off Chinese inflation news and a smaller-than-expected drop in initial jobless claims Thursday. Indexes wavered for most of the session, but buying came in during the final hour of trading.
Volume dropped sharply across the board.

Friday:
Stocks took a breather Friday, finishing little changed after a dull session.
Mixed action in mixed volume.
Despite Friday's lack of action, stocks finished higher for the second straight week. The Nasdaq climbed 2% and Dow 0.6%. The NYSE composite and S&P 500 rose 1% each.

weeklyanalysis03062010

Monday:
Greek bailout hopes, M&A activity and a bigger-than-expected rise in consumer spending boosted stocks Monday.
Turnover jumped on the Nasdaq and fell on the NYSE.
The Philadelphia semiconductor index ran up 3.1% and regained its 50-day line.
The Nasdaq's "follow-through" confirmed the market's tenuous uptrend.

Tuesday:
Stocks pushed to new session highs and then pulled back after the dollar pared losses.
Turnover rose.

Wednesday:
Stocks squandered good gains to close mixed Wednesday. It was the second straight session that equities faded.
Volume fell across the board.
Despite the action in the major indexes, some leaders had a nice day.

Thursday:
Stocks swung back and forth, finishing higher ahead of Friday's key jobs report.
Volume ticked up on the NYSE and dropped sharply on the Nasdaq.

Friday:
Stocks chopped around for the past three sessions, but finished decisively high Friday, thanks to a jobs report that showed that the labor market is on the mend.
The NYSE composite climbed 1.6%, closing at its best level since Jan. 20. The Nasdaq passed its January peak, gaining 1.5% to touch its highest level since September 2008. The S&P 500 and Dow rose 1.4% and 1.2%, respectively.
Volume climbed on both exchanges.
The IBD 100 jumped 1.4%. For the week it was up 4.3%.
Before the open, the Labor Department said employers cut far fewer jobs in February than economists had expected. The unemployment rate held steady at 9.7%.
For the week, the Nasdaq and NYSE composite surged 3.9% and 3.6%, respectively. Both put in their best weekly performance of the year. The S&P 500 gained 3.1%, while the Dow added 2.3%.
 
weeklyobservations03202010
(reverse chrono)

Market showing distribution.
Ending losses in high trade were relatively modest.
-
Modest open.
Volume pulls back again.
Again leadership is absent.
Closed mixed.
-
Early & continued gains in higher trade.
Education and semi stocks doing well.
At 10730 resistance.
Some stock accumulation.
Chinese stocks take a hit.
-
Still no leadership.
Break out in higher trade, ahead of Fed.
Gains hold into the close as volume increased.
But while the indexes acted bullishly Tuesday, leading stocks were generally quiet.
Fed leaves interest rates unchanged at 0%.
-
Thus far minor losses.
Volume way down, initially.
Very erratic action.
ES gets rejected at 1150.
NQ comes down to support.
Stocks closed narrowly mixed.

weeklyobservations03132010
(reverse chrono)

More chop with no progress or digress.
Mixed trade in mixed volume.
No leadership.
KBW Bank Index drops (still above support).
Vix drops.
On Friday, breakouts were scarce.
IBD 100 underperforms Nasdaq on week.
-
No volume decline.
Closes up.
gains continue - albeit not huge.
Volume into banks lift Wall Street.
Still volatility.
-
More gains as NYSE volume jumps significantly.
Now mixed.
Another choppy session.
KBW Bank Index rises above resistance.
Much higher NYSE volume tails off to slightly higher.
Nasdaq puts n strong gains in lighter volume.
More good leading stock action.
-
Some gains in some increased volume.
Significant jump in volume as Nasdaq breaks above support.
Some leader participation.
Selling into the close was on a pick up in volume.
Results among leading stocks were mixed.
-
Despite coming out of a correction, market action still choppy.
Volume lightens.
Stocks close mixed. Nasdaq reaches 18-month high.

weeklyobservations03062010
(reverse chrono)

The Nasdaq did inch over its 50-day moving average, but the other major indexes remained below that key level.
Market up in volume.
HUGE volume jump and nice Nasdaq gains.
The Nasdaq climbed 1.4%, rising further north of its 50-day moving average.
Chips continued to boost the Nasdaq The Philadelphia semiconductor jumped 3.1%. It regained its 50-day line.
Nasdaq & NDX "follow-through": "confirmed, if cautious, uptrend."
S&P 500 & Dow regain 50-day M.A.
Market tanked into the close to end mixed.
Stock accumulation did not step up.
-
Continued gains in higher Nasdaq volume (NYSE is less).
STILL erratic index action.
-
Still no leadership or volume (mixed).
More lethargic action - reversal from highs in increased trade.
-
Again minor volume - Nasdaq (vol.) falling sharply.
*Still* scant leadership.
Wow! How volume tailed off today (jobs report Friday).
-
Market finishes week with strong gains in higher trade.

p$
 
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