Let's Take a Test Drive by Pay$ense

paysense · Apr 2, 2009

Yesterday's gains were nice with volume increasing on the Nasdaq. The late-session pullback didn't have as much "bite" as the previous day.

Asian markets rocked overnight with the Hang Seng up 7.41%!

Meanwhile, overnight futures brought the Dow close to 8000. Today will be interesting. Oddly, leading stocks and industry groups have yet to pick up (mostly bottom feeding).

This can take another month or two to emerge. We shall see.

pay$ense

paysense · Apr 2, 2009

Well there you have it (granted it is still early in the trading session).

A HUGE amount of leading stocks (top fundamentals & technicals) up in volume.

The market must have been waiting and liking the new FASB rules now implemented.

paysense · Apr 16, 2009

Well a week went by plus most of this week and so I am going to give an update of some keys points in my notes that bear mentioning. . .

Pre-week:

Things have changed to some degree. Not only are IBD growth screens starting to yield more stocks with top fundamentals and sound charts, but professional selling has also been kept on a tight leash.
Also helping financials were reports and sources saying that all 19 big U.S. banks will pass the Treasury's "stress tests."
All the major indexes are enjoying a five-week winning streak.
The Nasdaq has surged 31% from its March 9 low. The NYSE composite added 29% from its March 6 worst. The S&P 500 gained 28% and the Dow rose 25%.
The Nasdaq, for instance, has risen 13% since the March 12 follow-through day. Distribution days have been scarce.
Another sign of new hopes for the economy: Retail stocks are coming back.
"Oddly, few top-rated stocks logged big gains in heavy volume."

Monday:

Down day (in lighter trade), still some leaders up in volume.

Keep your eyes peeled â industry group rankings are changing fast, as new leaders start to appear in a young bull.
Breakouts among highly rated stocks are working.

Tuesday:

Where is leadership?
Still a volatile market.
This is stacking up to be distribution day.

Interesting recent quote from IBD founder O'Neil: "It's impossible for a stock that's going to be a leader to not start showing signs that it's under accumulation as big investors and fund managers start to buy the stock."

Wednesday:

Vix is tanking.
Today was a decent comeback after yesterday's distribution day.

Thursday:

Some more accumulation by leadership.

Pay$

paysense · Apr 26, 2009

This budding new rally has logged some more time, since my last post. I am happy to say my investment systems continue to progress like clockwork.

Although I did not begin trading LONG at the exact bottom, since the 12-Mar-2009 signal. . .the market gains have grown not only in price, but in health.

The Vix is now below previous support indicating a less volatile market scenario, however I am still a bit cautious - not yet at my full margin allocation.

I need to see further conviction amongst institutional investors in the form of leading stocks - those with superior technicals and fundamentals - being bought is heavy volume. We will only then see this market move to the next level.

In the meantime, my covered call plays went ITM and were all called away for the first time in a very long while. Even if the market retests the prior low. . .I can allow for this approach to bank gains.

As far as LONG futures investments, my accounts have reached new highs capitalizing on not only the sharp recent drop, but the resumption of a rallying market.

Here are some key notes that have been guiding me this past week or so:

Friday:

The small-cap S&P 600 added 3%, indicating investors taking on more risk.
Feels like my covered call account may invest using additional margin this time.
Thus far, we have not experienced much of a pullback.
Also, there is not much in the way of market leadership, however professional selling has also been kept on a tight leash.
We will need to see if the indexes can break out above resistance.

Investors await a busy week of earnings reports. About 140 companies, or 28% of the S&P 500, are slated to report this week.
With about 10% of S&P 500 firms reporting results so far, profits are on track to have fallen 37.4% compared to the same period a year ago, according to Thomson Reuters.

Monday:

WOW - a 4% move down.
Vix jumps, temporarily?
Nasdaq still outperforming.

Nasdaq trade was down sharply vs. Friday's pace.
The IBD 100 carved off 3.1%, as there was little action amongst leading stocks.

Despite the big losses in the major indexes, only a handful of leaders fell in heavy volume. Sixteen IBD 100 stocks dropped in above-average trade.

When and if there will be any serious buying - other than beaten-down financials. . .I will believe it when I see it: continue to be patient when adding new positions.

Tuesday:

The IBD 100 tacked on 1.4%.
Despite the gains in the main indexes, leaders up in volume were few.
The market is going to need to prove itself more.
We shall see if the market can break down further.

Wednesday:

Guess what? We are seeing some leading stocks up in volume.
The IBD 100, a proxy for leading stocks, led with a 0.3% gain.
As indicated by the IBD 100's leadership, Wednesday's action wasn't entirely negative.
There were more leaders up than down in big trade, and leadership among the industry groups showed improvement.

Although more leaders jumped, there is still very little in the way of leading stock accumulation.

Interpretation: Market is still sketchy (healthier, but not entirely healthy).

Thursday:

Leading stocks took some heat, an occurrence that had been largely lacking recently. The IBD 100 index slipped 0.7%, lagging the broad market.

Friday:

Stocks have been in the money since the open, fueled by a wave of earnings reports.

The Nasdaq rose 1.3%, its seventh straight weekly gain.
The Nasdaq popped 2.5% to a new five-month high.
Small-cap stocks led the way again, with the S&P 600 surging 3.2%.

But some red flags are popping up. First, the IBD 100 continues to lag the major indexes. It rose 0.8% Friday and was down 1.4% for the week. The market's best stocks should be leading the market.

"The Jury is Still Out" on whether or not this is simply a tradable rally or a bear market rally that may soon correct.

What I will be watching in the coming week. . .

I will be closing out ITM covered call plays to "lock in the gains" - versus holding until expiration, as I can always jump into new plays.
I will try and get fully vested according to my "swing" futures position margin allocation schedule, but will go light overnight as needed.

WATCH for a support level break.
Also watch to see if the Nasdaq and Small-cap 600 start to lag in performance.

Pay$ense

paysense · Apr 26, 2009

Now documenting (not spamming) with updated performance snapshots:

The strict use of covered calls from training website,

Strictly trading futures at C2,

Pure covered call fund at C2 (same as website),

p$

paysense · May 10, 2009

Well it has been 2 weeks since my last update - pretty much everything including our new rally remains intact. . .however caveats STILL apply that could point that we may now be at a crossroads.

That's 9 straight up weeks for the Nasdaq. To make it even more impressive, weekly volume was the heaviest of the winning streak so far. A look at its daily chart, though, shows the day with most volume was Thursday's 2.4% tumble. That day saw the highest daily volume since the uptrend began March 12.
On top of that, some leaders are showing cracks, and the IBD 100 underperformed again.

Are these reasons to flee the market? Certainly not. Following sound buy rules will get you in on the way up. And sell rules will push you to either take profits or avoid big losses.

We've had scant signs of distribution or selling by institutions, however last Thursday waved a red flag, with the second higher-volume decline this week in the Nasdaq, and its third in recent weeks. We shall see how things react from here.

Vix dropped to 35, now 31.5 - keep watching.
We are going to keep our eyes peeled for more signs weakness.

Here are a selection of notes in my daily journals that may help to review:

Monday:

Hmmm, covered call portfolio staying strong.
Still too much premium in CC's.
Still no real volume.
Still no leadership.
Still waiting on further conviction.

Tuesday:

Unlike prior rally failures, we still are seeing action (breakouts) amongst leading stocks .

Wrt Monday's losses: volume fell on both exchanges, a sign that the biggest investors were not unloading and very few leaders lost ground in heavy trade.

Market uncertainty: The government's banking sector stress tests results are due out next week.
Volatility as measured by the Vix is still high - continue to watch for support to break.

I need to wait for vix to come down/see high volume gains. . .before committing more exposure.

Do NOT let it escaped your notice that the small- and mid-cap indexes have markedly risen to the occasion.

Wednesday:

Be patient and wait to see what happens and THEN adjust exposure.
We are now at or above overhead support (turned resistance).

Soon we will be expecting a pullback. Then the question will be - do we ADD on pullback with our margin? Will phase in.

With Vix coming down with the uptrend, things have sloowwed considerably.

we closed with decent gains in higher volume, but indexes closed off highs - yet again above support.
The IBD 100, a proxy for leading stocks, again trailed with a 1.7% gain.
The market's best stocks should be leading the market.
According to preliminary data, volume climbed sharply on both exchanges.
Vix still 35.

Thursday

Stacking up to be a distribution day for the Dow.

Friday

Leading stocks posted some noteworthy gains for the session, and few ended the day with any high-volume declines.
Where we go from here will be critical.
The bear-bull struggle is now even.
Institutions have still not significantly shown their hand.
If the Nasdaq closes higher Friday, it would grab its eighth straight weekly gain â its longest winning streak since early 1999.
Recent break out can break down as recent gains can quickly evaporate.
"Wait-and-see" for institution pulling market leaders ahead.

The IBD 100, a proxy for the market's leading stocks, rose 2.8% for the week. That's a pleasant change from its recent lagging behavior.

Normally, the best stocks outperform in a new uptrend.
Still, even abnormal times have precedents. Research into the post-calamity uptrends that began in 1932, 1938, 1975 and 2002 shows that solid, resolute leaders took longer than usual to emerge.

Nasdaq touches 200-day and has had eight weeks of gains.
It has had only 1 distribution day in recent weeks.
See if resistance turned support holds.

Each day that goes by, my CC strategy banks.

Monday:

Today is stacking up to be an accumulation day.
Man! Another 4% day - with many stocks that FLEW!!!

Interesting, I now have a reasonably traded futures system at Collective2.com that is over a year old and is in the top 10.
It will soon move up, too, as the best is yet to unfold. That will make it one of the most popular systems and generate some decent income that I, myself, can trade;

Still need to be cautious. IBD 100 still underperforms and Vix still at 35.

Tuesday:

Market is down in higher volume after rebound attempt failed.
Is going to be a distribution day - yet is mild.
Nasdaq chalks up distribution day on volume that barely increased.
IBD 100 again outperforms (fell less).
Vix plummeted into close at 33.5.

Wednesday:

We had high Vix, failed breakouts and underperforming IBD 100.
We're now seeing an improved Vix, breakouts working and IBD 100 racking gains.
We shall continue to phase in, using STOPS.

Stocks ramped up in late trade, after showing mid-session weakness, Wednesday. Even the Nasdaq turned positive.
Stocks finished higher Wednesday as reports found that the pace of job losses slowed. Easing worries over banks also helped.
Despite positive action in the market, not many leaders climbed in heavy volume.
Volume climbed sharply on both exchanges.

Thursday:

Stocks quickly hit some bullish target in the pre-open and early trade, yet a quick and sharp retreat left indexes hitting bearish targets.
Turned out to be the busiest session since the Nov. 21st low.
IBD 100 severely lagged again losing 1.1%.
Shipping stocks continue to take it on the chin.

Friday:

Stocks pushed ahead in late trade Friday, with most indexes scoring new session highs. Equities were also on pace to cap another week of gains.
Major stock indexes bounced back strongly Friday. With the exception of the Nasdaq, they recouped all of Thursday's losses and then some.
Financials and energy issues were the day's biggest winners, but they haven't been market leaders recently.
A barrage of retail stocks sold off. And chip issues struggled for a second session.
Volume fell on both exchanges.
For the week, the NYSE composite, S&P 500 and Dow gained 7.8%, 5.9% and 4.4%, respectively. They all closed higher for the second straight week. The Nasdaq stretched is weekly win streak to nine, rising 1.2%.
Leaders delivered mixed results.
Volume faded compared to Thursday's pace. Meanwhile, the session's leadership was suspect.

Stocks may or may not have more room to run. Price and volume in the major stock indexes will ultimately answer that question. If distribution days start to increase in frequency and leading stocks start to break down, falling in heavy volume, that wouldn't bode well for the rally. But if leaders continue to perform well and major stock indexes rise in heavy volume and fall in lower volume that would be a sign of a healthy market.

paysense · May 27, 2009

Monday:

Down as volume slid across the board. Distribution days have recently been quickly stacking up. Can institutions pick up the ball (thus far they aren't selling)?!?
The small-cap S&P 600 shed 2.7%.
WAIT for the upturn (confirm) to shift gears - or to double up CC's.
Am in "wait-and-see" mode.
Things are still well with my CC Fund.
Half my CC's may be called away this week.

The Nasdaq is clinging to just under its 200-day moving average, a level that it has been trying to take and keep for the past six sessions.
That battle has yet to be decided.

Tuesday:

The session's loss in higher volume added another distribution day to the Nasdaq's ledger.
It's never an encouraging sign when you see multiple losses in higher volume occur in a short period of time.
Also troubling is the Nasdaq's recent inability to overcome its 200-day moving average. The index closed just below its 200-day line May 1. It has since touched the line or climbed above it multiple times. But it has yet to make any significant headway.
The NYSE composite didn't quite make it up to its 200-day, but it did flirt with the line before pulling back late last week.
Meanwhile, leading stocks, which yielded a healthy number of breakouts in recent weeks, have cooled off somewhat. The IBD 100 sank 1.3% Tuesday.

Here is a recent quote I found interesting as key:

"We're at a cross-roads," says Jack Ablin, chief investment officer at Harris Private Bank.
"The market needs to decide whether the rally in the first quarter was just a positive correction after the big sell-off, or if we have something more sustainable. We're getting close to making that decision," he said.

"A good percentage of this move [since March] was short covering," he said. "But now, what replaces short covering as the motivator to continue this rally?"
According to Ablin of Harris Trust, there remains about $5 trillion of cash on the sidelines from investors who have remained unconvinced that the market's rally was sustainable. For this money to convincingly move in the market, investors will demand more and more real improvement in the economy, he said.

Wednesday:

Sharp losses in higher volume marked a new distribution day for the Dow, the S&P 500 and the NYSE composite.
The small cap S&P 600 and midcap S&P 400 plunged 4.7% and 4.4%.
The broad losses raised a caution flag, shifting the current outlook to uptrend under pressure.

Leading stocks didn't escape Wednesday's pain. With the market under pressure, an investor can't be criticized for locking in some profits. Be sure to sell any stock that falls to your "stop-loss" target. If the market continues to weaken, losses could add up quickly.

Thursday:

The market delivered nice gains Thursday, but trade was slower.
Still no volume. Be patient.

Volume fell on the Nasdaq and on the NYSE, suggesting that institutional investors were sitting this one out. Yet the lack of follow-up selling was a relief, considering that the market slapped the Nasdaq with a distribution day Tuesday and hit the NYSE indexes with one on Wednesday.

Friday:

The market ended a tepid week with moderate losses Friday.
For the week, the NYSE composite fell 5.6%, the S&P 500 5% and the Dow 3.6%. The Nasdaq snapped its nine-week win streak, falling 3.4%.
The Nasdaq and NYSE composite have met resistance at their 200-day moving averages. Also, all indexes closed near the low of the week's range.
Still, volume was lower than in the previous week, suggesting that the market is making a normal pullback.

In past major market bottoms, indexes have rebounded strongly, then paused before mounting a new charge. At that point, many leading stocks emerged.
Continue to watch the Vix (Cboe Volatility Index).

Will we continue to run? Am going to have to stay somewhat vested in the event we do. Watch institutions, watch volume. Institutions will need to stage a follow-through.

Economic data will be sparse this week. But some investors still see chance to stretch 2-1/2-month upward run.
Economy: some segments are contracting much less, while job losses and consumers continue to look bleak. Global economies are still in contraction and the impact of the consolidated auto-makers will prove even more dire for the manufacturing industry.

Monday:

The major indexes closed at session highs to cap a day of sharp gains.
At the close, the NYSE composite had jumped 3.6%, the Nasdaq and S&P 500 3.1%, the Dow 2.9%.
Volume fell, however, dulling the day's gains.
High-rated stocks were mostly quiet, despite the broad advance. Financials led.

Although volume disappointed, the market did set itself up for a test. The Nasdaq retook its 200-day moving average, an area that has acted as resistance on several occasions in the past year. Springing off that line would be bullish.

Will market continue to consolidate?
Rally remains under pressure.

Tuesday:

Vix now under 30 (28.8).
Solar issues on fire.
With the Memorial Day Weekend coming up, this is a week of light trade.

Major indexes closed in split fashion after a zigzag session Tuesday. Stocks were up most of the day, defying worse-than-expected housing data. But sellers struck in the closing minutes of trade.
Volume fell on the NYSE and climbed on the Nasdaq.
Despite mixed results, a few leaders scored good gains.

Tuesday:

Stocks chalked up an indefinite outcome Tuesday in mixed trade.
Leading stocks fared surprisingly well on Tuesday. The IBD 100 rose 0.6%, outpacing the general market.

Coming up Wednesday will be the minutes from the Fed's April 29 meeting.

Wednesday:

Chip issues were chipper again, but closed well of the session peak. The Philadelphia semiconductor index rose 0.3% after being up over 4%.

A sell-off in the final hour pushed stocks lower Wednesday. Stocks opened higher, but started fading about an hour into the session. The Fed's projection for slower growth and higher unemployment didn't help. Meanwhile, the NYSE composite dipped a fraction. Intraday, the index poked above its 200-day line for the first time in about a year.
Volume ended vastly higher, according to preliminary figures. If confirmed, that would give the Dow, Nasdaq and S&P 500 another distribution day.

Thursday:

Continue to watch price and volume action.
Market will likely need to consolidate.

Shipping stocks looking good.
Vix back up above 31.

Stocks closed off session lows, but still with sharp losses.
Due to slower trade, the indexes ducked a distribution day.
A distribution day is defined as a significant loss in heavier volume than the previous session. It points to institutional selling.
Despite a broad decline, relative few leading stocks fell in strong volume.

Friday:

Stocks were stuck in range-bound fashion as trading slowed to a crawl late Friday. On the bright side, equities were poised to close the week with gains.
Major indexes closed in split fashion Friday. Stocks opened higher, hit their highs late morning, then traded sideways for most of the session. But a round of late selling pushed most indexes lower.

For the week, the major averages managed gains but closed near the low of their respective ranges.
The Nasdaq composite, for instance, ended the week with a 0.7% gain, after rising as much as 5.2%. The S&P 500 turned a 4.7% gain into just 0.5%.
The IBD 100 rose 0.7% for the week, also closing near lows.

All in all, the market seems to be just consolidating from its spring advance. The broad indexes reached their best post-crash levels two weeks ago. The ensuing two weeks saw successively lower volume, just as you'd expect from a normal cooling. A few leaders have come under pressure, but there is no epidemic of failed breakouts. Indeed, many leading stocks are correcting normally. Still other top-rated stocks are trading tightly, giving cause to pay close attention. Daily volume on the Nasdaq was the lowest since Jan. 2, according to preliminary calculations.

My website Covered Call Fund (now at C2) seems poised to capitalize more with each signal that points to evidence that we indeed are in the beginning stages of a new bull market. Meanwhile, my C2 futures system is getting more LONG exposure as volatility drops, leadership strengthens and institutional support (volume) shores up.

paysense · Jun 14, 2009

It has been three weeks since I last posted. I've now put the final wraps on my Collective2.com futures system. It is now 1.25 years old and my track record shows an ~100% CAGR (compound annual growth rate).

That coupled with my other Collective2.com PRO covered call system 2009 is unfolding to be a good year...

Monday:

holiday

Tuesday:

positive consumer confidence report: On the economic front, the Conference Board is slated to release its May consumer confidence report at 10 a.m. EDT. Economists project the index to climb to 42, up from a 39.2 reading in April.

Market up again, see IF gains hold.
Despite gains Vix still above 30.
Volume up heavy.
SPX 25 point swing.
NDX 50 point swing.
As the market bases, this is healthy.
Leaders. . .where are you?
Volume moved sig. higher at EOD.
Brushing off negative news is a sign of a resilient market.

Leaders showed mostly positive action, as the IBD 100, a proxy for leading stocks, sprinted 3.7%. That was another encouraging sign for growth investors.
About 50% vested in covered call system.

Wednesday:

The major indexes gained ground early Wednesday, adding to Tuesday's hefty post-Memorial Day gains.
The April existing home sales report yielded better than expected results.

I knew it. Today's decline in large part a reaction to GM. The higher-volume decline gave the Nasdaq a fifth distribution day in recent weeks. That's getting to a level that historically marks market tops.
Still, the Nasdaq remained above its 200-day moving average, and leading stocks generally avoided serious damage. The IBD 100 lopped off 1.4%.

It's official: The market is attempting to rebound after posting broad losses Wednesday, triggered by the threat of General Motors (GM) declaring bankruptcy.

Thursday:

BULLETIN >> DOW INDUSTRIALS FINISH WITH TRIPLE-DIGIT GAIN; 27 OF 30 MEMBERS RISE, LED BY FINANCIALS

Friday:

In economic news, the Commerce Department revised its first-quarter gross domestic product to a 5.7% decline. That was not as harsh as the initial minus-6.1% GDP reading put forth last month. Still, the 5.7% adjustment was a slightly bigger drop than economists expected.

Elsewhere, solar stocks continued to advance.

Vix jumps a couple of points.

Stocks capped a short trading week with gains.
The NYSE composite rallied 1.5%, climbing further north of its 200-day moving average.
The S&P 500 gained 1.4%, closing in on its own 200-day line. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq rose 1.3% and the Dow 1.2%.
Volume climbed on both exchanges.

Major indexes capped another week of gains. The Nasdaq climbed 4.9%, the NYSE composite 3.7%, the S&P 500 3.6% and the Dow 2.7%.

Stocks also ended higher for the third straight month. The NYSE composite was up 8.9%, the S&P 500 5%, the Dow 4.1% and the Nasdaq 3.3%.

Our 12-Mar-2009 "Green Light" call has proved profitable. After all... the major indexes have notched a third straight month of wins.

Despite the market's sharp advance, leading stocks for the most part have been relatively subdued. Few made gains in higher volume. In many cases, they just continued forming bases.
The market faces several hurdles, including relentless government-debt supply, rising oil prices and fears that inflation may rise down the road.

Monday:

Encouraging was the new orders gauge of the ISM mfg. report - turned positive for the month.

Stocks continued to push higher on a bullish session Monday.
The small-cap S&P 600 led the advance. It surged 4.4% and regained its 200-day moving average. Likewise, the S&P 500 also regained its 200-day line as it rose 2.8%.
Advancers trounced decliners 6-to-1 on the NYSE and over 3-to-1 on the Nasdaq.
Stocks shot up Monday, closing near the best levels of the session.
Like the major averages, the IBD 100 also had a nice day. About 88 components closed higher. The median price change in the index of leading stocks was 3.9%.
Volume dropped off sharpy on the NYSE, but rose a bit on the Nasdaq.

Tuesday:

After Mondays vehement gains, Tuesday's action was subdued = healthy action.

Distribution day count is back really low.
None for Nasdaq.
Leaders have still not jumped out there, yet.
At the same time down issues are getting lots of volume: IBD 100 is getting a big makeover.

There's a growing sense that the U.S. recession will end soon but that the recovery will be tepid.

Wednesday:

Major indexes sold off Wednesday following a round of worse-than-forecast economic data, but a late-session rebound recouped some losses. Still, stocks ended a four-session win streak.
Volume fell across the board.
Despite the down session, few leaders dropped in heavy volume.

Volume dried up, in an indication that institutional investors weren't selling much (positive action).

Thursday:

Meanwhile, Apple (AAPL) advanced 2% in above-average volume. The iPod and iPhone maker is following a path similar to Google's, rebounding sharply after a big sell-off in late 2008. Like Google, Apple's stock is now 24% off its 52-week high.

The Financial Select Sector SPDR (XLF) climbed nearly 4% to just shy of its 200-day moving average. The ETF has doubled since its March 6 low.

Stocks erased early losses and put in a strong rally Thursday, closing at session highs.

Volume rose on both exchanges. Again - very healthy action.

The Dow gained 0.9% to post its first close above its 200-day moving average since May 19, 2008. It was the last of the major indexes to clear that long-term trend indicator in the current uptrend.
So far this week, the IBD 100 is up 4.9%, about doubling the S&P 500's performance. It's also outpacing all major indexes

Friday:

Stocks closed mixed after the Labor Department reported a much-smaller-than-forecast drop in May payrolls. But the unemployment rate ticked up higher than expected. Trading action was wild in the morning, but tapered off as the session wore on.
Volume fell on both exchanges.

Covered Call continues to bode well - steadily gaining along with the S&P 500. Futures account is tracking a 100% 52-week gain - - interestingly leading stocks are severely lagging, have yet to make their move.

Let price and volume continue to direct your trading. This may just be a tradable rally. I can only take what the market gives me. Still no leadership, still high volatility (yet has come down considerably).

Monday:

Several regions said the outlook for future business activity had improved, but that a substantial improvement was unlikely in 2009.

Major indexes closed mostly lower Monday. A late-session rally briefly pushed stocks into positive territory, but the market erased gains in the closing minutes.
Volume fell sharply from Friday's levels.

We have now entered into another trading range.

Tuesday:

The major indexes traded in a narrow range in late-morning action Tuesday.
The Nasdaq continued to outshine while other indexes remained little changed midday Tuesday.
Volume was mixed.
The Nasdaq continued to outshine while other indexes remained little changed midday Tuesday.
Stocks perked up in early afternoon trading Tuesday, with most of the major indexes now in positive territory.
Volume was tracking higher on the Nasdaq and a bit lower on the NYSE.
With a couple of hours left in Tuesday's session, the Nasdaq held near new session highs, while other indexes chopped around.
The Nasdaq climbed 0.9%, thanks partly to chip stocks. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index extended its gain to 4.3%.
Major stock indexes livened in late trading Tuesday, hitting new session highs.
Turnover was tracking higher across the board, especially the Nasdaq.
The major indexes closed mixed following a choppy session Tuesday.
Texas Instruments' (TXN) bright Q2 outlook, delivered late Monday, boosted the tech sector. The Nasdaq rallied 1%. The Philadelphia semiconductor index leapt 4.4%.
Volume ended higher on the Nasdaq and lower on the NYSE. Overall turnover was below average.
Leaders were mostly quiet on the session.
Semiconductor, dairy and steel stocks were the session's leaders. Medical and aerospace industry groups fell.

Wednesday:

Stocks started Wednesday's session with mixed results, as investors eyed higher commodities prices.
The major indexes mostly turned lower Wednesday.
Indexes rose off their lows as an optimistic beige book inspired some investors.
The Fed's survey of economic conditions matched what Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke and other central bank officials have said: the "downward trend is showing signs of moderating."
Volume was higher, giving all of the indexes but the NYSE a new distribution day.

Thursday:

In commodities news, crude oil prices kept rising, tacking on 66 cents to $71.99 a barrel.
Showing that there's still demand of U.S. government debt, the Treasury sold $11 billion of 30-year bonds at a yield of 4.72%.
Stocks bounced back Thursday, thanks to better-than-forecast economic data and strong bond auction results. But a late-day retreat lopped the bulk of the day's gains.
Volume climbed on the Nasdaq and was about even on the Big Board.
Despite the up day, leaders up on heavy volume were few.

Friday:

Major indexes were off session lows in early afternoon trading, but recovery efforts seem to have stalled.
The Nasdaq shed 1.4%, dragged down by losses in chips and bellwether issues. The Philadelphia semiconductor index dropped 2.8%. Apple (AAPL) and Research In Motion (RIMM) fell 3% each, while Google (GOOG) slipped 2%.
A few leaders came under fire.
Stocks closed in split fashion following a choppy session.
Volume dropped sharply on both exchanges.

Price and volume action continues to bode healthy.

paysense · Jul 8, 2009

It has been 3 weeks since my last update. Here are the news snippets that I have been looking at to navigate my system management:

weeklyanalysis06202009

Monday:
Major stock indexes suffered their biggest hit thus far this month as economic fears weighed from the opening bell.
Stocks took heavy losses in brisk volume Monday, as the U.S. picked up on a sell-off that started overnight in foreign markets.
Leaders were hit.
Volume climbed across the board, especially on the NYSE.
The Philadelphia semiconductor index fell 2.9% to its lowest level in two weeks.

In late-session action, a number of top-rated stocks continued to pare recent gains.
Decliners swamped advancers by over 5-to-1 on the NYSE and more than 4-to-1 on the Nasdaq.
Losses were broad. Just about all 197 industry groups tracked by IBD lost ground. Steel and commodity-related groups were among the hardest hit.
By days end, A few leaders faltered.

Tuesday:
Stock futures signaled a higher open Tuesday, thanks to better-than-expected economic data.
In economic news, housings starts surged 17.2% to an annualized rate of 532,000 units. That was well above forecasts for 483,000 units. Activity was especially strong in the West and the South.
Building permits, a sign of future activity, rose 4% to a rate of 518,000, also above estimates.
Stocks tumbled following a mixed bag of economic data Tuesday, finishing at session lows.
Turnover rose slightly on both exchanges.
Several leaders again took hits.
The NYSE composite are both are nearing their respective 200-day moving averages. The Dow slipped further below its 200-day line.

Wednesday:
Stocks closed in split fashion after a choppy session Wednesday.
The Nasdaq was the lone winner.
Turnover was tracking much higher across the board.
Leaders continued to falter.

Thursday:
The weekly jobs report showed the number of Americans filing for unemployment falling for the first time since January.
A low-volume session ended with mixed results Thursday. Most averages gained, while the Nasdaq dipped.
Volume dropped sharply from Wednesday's levels.
Stocks were mostly up, but soft trade points to caution.

Friday:
The major indexes were poised for a higher open Friday, buoyed by higher commodities prices and a continuation of Thursday's uptick.
In company news, Research In Motion (RIMM) ticked down 1% in pre-market action. Late Thursday, the Blackberry maker reported gains in quarterly earnings and sales but offered a sluggish revenue forecast.
Elsewhere in the tech sector, Apple (AAPL) will begin selling the latest version of its iPhone on Friday. Apple's stock climbed 2% ahead of the market open.
Volume surged across the board on a day of quadruple-witching options expiration.
Energy issues stumbled as crude prices reversed after topping $72 a barrel earlier. July crude lost $1.07 to $70.30 a barrel.
Another Chinese firm, AsiaInfo Holdings (ASIA) rose 3% in active trading. The IT products provider pulled back to support at its 50-day moving average Thursday. That's the stock's first trip to the line since its May 19 breakout.
Comeback efforts were short-lived as sellers turned up the heat in late trading.
Major indexes closed mixed after a choppy session Friday.
The Nasdaq rallied 1.1%, still off the session high of 1.7%. Apple (AAPL), Baidu.com (BIDU) and Google (GOOG) scored nice gains. Software giant Microsoft (MSFT) rose more than 2% to an eight-month high after Goldman Sachs added the stock to its Conviction Buy List. Research In Motion (RIMM) dropped 5% and breached its 50-day moving average.

weeklyanalysis06272009

Monday:
Stock futures pointed to a vastly weaker open after the World Bank cuts its 2009 global growth forecast.
The World Bank said the global economy will contract by 2.9% this year. That's worse than a prior forecast, made in March, of a 1.7% decline.
July crude oil dropped $2.77 to $66.78 a barrel on economic worries. Oil has more than doubled since December.
Besides energy, materials stocks were taking it on the chin.
Stocks opened lower and quickly worsened with sellers turning up the heat in midday trading - sending most indexes below key moving averages.

The NYSE composite swooned 3.5%, sliced its 50-day moving average and nearly touched its 200-day line. The S&P 500 dumped 3.1%, breaching both its 200-day and 50-day lines.
Meanwhile, the Dow dropped 2.4% and undercut its 50-day moving average. And the Nasdaq, which held above its moving averages, shed 3.4%.
Volume dropped off sharply across the board from Friday's beefed-up levels â softening the hit.

Tuesday:
The Federal Open Market Committee kicks off its two-day policy meeting today.
Stocks turned in mixed results Tuesday. Trading was choppy for most of the session, ahead of Wednesday's culmination of a Fed meeting.
Volume fell on both major exchanges.

Wednesday:
BULLETIN >> STOCK FUTURES RALLY (third time in 4 months) AS U.S. ORDERS FOR DURABLE GOODS RISE 1.8% IN MAY
Meanwhile, software company Oracle carried its pre-market gains into the regular session, vaulting 5% on a bullish quarterly report.
BULLETIN >> FED MAINTAINS ROCK-BOTTOM TARGET RATE; DEFLATION NO LONGER A CONCERN
Stocks finished mixed as the Federal Reserve stood pat on interest rates and sounded a tad more optimistic on the economy.
The S&P 500 rose 0.7%, regaining its 50-day and 200-day moving averages.
All in all, the Fed isn't going to take away the punch bowl anytime soon, but it's not planning to spike the drinks either.
Gains were broad: Nearly every one of IBD's 197 industry groups was up.

Thursday:
The major indexes have all found support at or near key moving averages in the past few days, after pulling back sharply earlier this month.
Despite mixed economic data, stocks powered higher Thursday, scoring their biggest gains since June 1.
The solid gains in higher trade, good action among leading stocks and the indexes' support at their 50-day moving averages made for a convergence of favorable factors.
Several leading stocks rallied from pullbacks to their 10-week or 50-day lines.
The IBD 100 leapt 2.5%, outperforming the major indexes for a second straight session.

Friday:
Update: Nasdaq Again Outshines As Indexes End Mixed On Huge Volume
The higher volume will add a distribution day for the Dow.
Leaders up in heavy volume were few, but included several Chinese issues.

weeklyanalysis07042009

Monday:
Stocks rallied Monday, starting a short trading week on a positive note. The major indexes erased early losses and closed near session highs.
Volume dropped off sharply from Friday. Turnover had spiked in the final minutes of Friday's session on rebalancing of the Russell indexes. Volume had been higher at comparisons earlier in the day.
The Dow finished at its session high and outshined with a 1.1% gain.
The market's stars were mixed. The IBD 100 rose just 0.2%, lagging the broad indexes.

Tuesday:
A surprising drop in consumer confidence hurt stocks on this last day of June.
The Dow lost 1% and closed under its 200-day moving average.
Volume climbed across the board, especially on the NYSE.
The major indexes put in a mixed performance for the month. The Nasdaq rose 3.4% â its fourth straight monthly gain. The S&P 500 ticked up a fraction. The NYSE composite fell 1.6% and the Dow lost 0.6%.
For the quarter, all of the averages scored solid gains. The Nasdaq surged 20%, the NYSE composite 19%, the S&P 500 15% and the Dow 11%.

Wednesday:
Major stock indexes climbed Wednesday, despite a round of mixed economic data. But the averages ended well off session highs ahead of Thursday morning's jobs report.
In commodities news, August crude climbed $1.23 to $71.12 a barrel.
But small caps outperformed, as the S&P 600 leapt 2.2%, closing near its high for the day.
Trade also dwindled during the retreat that started after a midmorning peak.
In economic news, the Institute for Supply Management's manufacturing index hit 44.8 in June, up from 42.8 in May and nipping estimates.
Among leading stocks, none fell in fast trading.

Thursday:
Stocks took a low-volume beating Thursday after the Labor Department reported a drop in June payrolls that was much bigger than expected, thus raising concerns about the economic recovery.
Employers cut 467,000 jobs in June â much more than the 363,000 job losses predicted by economists. Those cuts shoved the unemployment rate up to a 26-year high of 9.5%
The NYSE composite and S&P 500 tumbled 2.9%, while the Dow shed 2.6%. Each sliced its 50-day moving average.
Meanwhile, the Nasdaq gave up 2.7% while holding above its 50-day line.
For the week, the S&P 500 fell 2.4%, the Nasdaq 2.3%, the NYSE composite 2.2% and the Dow 1.9%.
Pre-holiday volume sank lessening the blow.
Losses amongst leading stocks remained muted.
In commodities news, August crude oil skidded $1.61 to $67.70 a barrel.

Friday:
holiday

We've stayed LONG for the majority of this bullish phase since 12-Mar-2009. Just to give an insight into the current week; we are under caution and have pared back exposure in the event a correction ensues.

p$

paysense · Aug 2, 2009

weeklyanalysis07112009

Monday:
Major stock indexes opened lower but battled to a mixed finish Monday.
The S&P 500 bounced off its 200-day moving average and rose 0.3%, finishing just below the 900 mark.
Volume climbed across the board vs. Thursday's holiday-dampened levels. The heavier trade added a distribution day for the Nasdaq.
Leaders mostly escaped heavy selling.
Some stocks that broke out of bases earlier in the market uptrend are showing signs of fatigue.
In economic news, the ISM nonmanufacturing index improved to 47 in June. That's one point better than expected. Still, readings below 50 indicate contraction.
Over the weekend, Vice President Joe Biden admitted that the Obama Administration underestimated the shape of the economy.
The broad indexes found support at or near key levels Monday. The Nasdaq bounced off its 50-day moving average, while the NYSE composite and S&P 500 held above their 200-day lines.
The market is looking ahead to third-quarter earnings season, set to start in earnest this week.

Tuesday:
The Nasdaq tumbled 2.3% and sliced its 50-day moving average. It had been above the line since March 23. Bellwethers Amazon.com, Baidu, Google, and Research In Motion fell 3% each.
Meanwhile the S&P 500 gave up 2% and sliced its 200-day line.
The NYSE composite and the S&P 500 each shed 2%, slipping further below their 50-day lines.
The major indexes continued to puncture key levels of support and act sluggish.
The Dow slipped 1.9%, making itself at home below both its 50- and 200-day lines.
While the market avoided another distribution day, it hasn't shown much ability to regain its footing.
But the failings in Tuesday's session, combined with a rising distribution-day count, point to a market uptrend now under pressure.

Wednesday:
Aluminum producer Alcoa is slated to report Q2 results later today amid a still uncertain economy and shaky job market.
Oil recouped some losses after falling as low as $60.28 a barrel. The August contract lost $1.87 to $61.05.
Late-session buyers helped stocks to a mixed finish Wednesday.
Volume climbed sharply on the Nasdaq and NYSE. Decliners beat advancers by about 2-to-1 on both exchanges.
Despite the market's rebound, many leaders fell in heavy volume.
Many leaders tanked or broke down. The IBD 100 fell 1%, lagging the broad market.

Thursday:
Stocks finished higher, but off session highs in a choppy trading Thursday.
Volume fell sharply from Wednesday's levels.
Overall, leaders up or down in heavy trade were few.
Looks like Price & Volume Action will tell the tale from here.

Friday:
Stocks finished mixed in another quiet session Friday, despite more earnings and economic data. The Nasdaq held firm once again, rising 0.2%. Techs got a boost from Goldman Sachs' upgrade of the hardware sector.
Highly ranked stocks rising or falling in heavy volume were few.
The Reuters/Univ. of Michigan preliminary July reading of consumer sentiment fell to 64.6 from June's 70.8. That was much worse than expected.
The market still on the canvas. We'll see what happens from here.
The major indexes closed mixed. Volume was down from already sluggish levels on both exchanges. On the Nasdaq, trade was even slower than during the pre-holiday session of July 2.
The IBD 100 rose 0.4%. For the week it fell 2.4%, roughly in line with the indexes. All of the major indexes remained below their 50-day moving averages.
While the market was quiet last week, its uptrend remains under pressure. Investors are best off not guessing at the market's next move, and remain cautious for now. In due time, the uptrend will either resume or downshift into a correction.

weeklyanalysis07182009

Monday:
Stocks chalked up their biggest gains in a month Monday after analyst Meredith Whitney raised her short-term outlook on banks.
The Nasdaq climbed 2.1% and regained its 50-day line.
Volume rose sharply on both the NYSE and the Nasdaq.
Stocks hang hopes on tech and financials.

Tuesday:
A round of mixed economic and earnings data gave way to a choppy session Tuesday, but stocks again finished higher.
On the corporate earnings front, chipmaker Intel delivered an encouraging report after Tuesday's close. The company's revenue results pointed to better-than-expected computer sales â a good sign for the economy.

Wednesday:
Earnings, select economic data and Fed minutes sent stocks flying Wednesday. Major indexes charged out of the gate, strengthened throughout the session and never looked back.
The Nasdaq leapt 3.5%, its best gain in nearly two months.
Chip issues were big winners. The Philadelphia semiconductor index vaulted 4.4%.
Volume shot up on both exchanges.
According to the minutes of the Fed's June 24 meeting, the central bank now sees the economy contracting between 1% and 1.5% vs. an earlier forecast for contraction between 1.3% and 2%.
Big money came back into the market aggressively Wednesday, pushing the indexes up sharply.
Volume, which is the unavoidable footprint of institutional investors, grew roughly 40% from the previous day's level.
It was one of the best days of the year for the major indexes.
Capital One Financial and Discover Financial Services, reported lower-than-expected defaults and delinquencies in June. Some observers expect credit card defaults to be the next slam for the economy.
The two firms eased those fears, at least for the time being.
The IBD 100 rose 2.8% - again, annoyingly underperforming the major averages - as some stocks in the index cleared buy points Wednesday.
Still, stocks continue to breakout.

Thursday:
Stocks kept their winning ways going Thursday. Major indexes were flat for most of the session, but positive comments from economist Nouriel Roubini helped spark an afternoon rally.
Roubini told Reuters that the worst of the economic crisis is over and the economy will come out of a recession later his year.
Volume fell sharply from Wednesday's levels.
In economic news, weekly jobless claims fell to a six-month low of 522,000, down from the previous week's revised total of 569,000 and well below estimates of 553,000 claims.
In commodities news, crude oil sank 61 cents to $60.93 a barrel.
The IBD 100 rose 1.4%, outperforming the major indexes.

Friday:
The Nasdaq rose for the eighth straight session, adding 0.1%. Chip issues again showed strength. The Philadelphia semiconductor index climbed 1.2% to a nine-month high.
Most major indexes scored their biggest weekly gains since the week ended March 13. The Nasdaq and Dow each surged 7.4%. The NYSE composite and S&P 500 rose 7.3% and 7%, respectively.
Volume finished vastly higher on the NYSE, thanks to Big Blue, Citigroup and General Electric.
Still no major volume with today Stocks on the Move.
The IBD 100 slid 0.1% Friday, but jumped 7% for the week.

During the week, the market also found solace in the shift of two prominent market watchers: Meredith Whitney & Nouriel Roubini.
For those who heed follow-through days, the shift wasn't exactly breaking news. The indexes flashed a follow-through signal March 12. Although the market has occasionally come under pressure, no correction has intruded.
On Monday, big gains left little doubt the market uptrend had resumed. And on Wednesday, the Nasdaq marked its biggest percentage gain since April.
The market's price and volume action itself has once again proved to be the best forecaster. The Nasdaq is up 32% since the follow-through day. Even the laggard Dow is up 22%.
Vix: 24.5

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