It is frequently said that 90% of traders are consistent losers. That number apparently was derived from the records of one daytrading firm, but I would not be surprised if it was accurate. Despite the fact that many ET members are relatively new traders, it is common to see surprisingly large numbers thrown around as the bare minimum they will accept. I'm not singling anyone out, so please no angry responses that I have insulted your intelligence or ability. But let's get real.
A 12% annual return would be better than virtually 99% of mutual funds over the past three years. A return of 24% over a period of years will put you in the same league as such neophytes as Warren Buffett, Bill Miller and Peter Lynch. Bump that up to 50% a year and they will reserve a spot for you in the Hedge Fund Hall of Fame, right between Julian Robertson and George Soros. What does that take anyway?
One percent a week with no compounding is 52% a year. On a $100,000 account, that is a measly $1,000 a week, or about what many newbie ES traders expect to make per day trading five lots. That is only $200 per day, a crummy $.20 move on a 1000 shares of stock. How easy is that? If you traded 5 lots in the ES, that is less than a point a day. Who trades 5 lots with a $100k account, not me for sure. More likely 10 lots, so you only need TWO TICKS per day. Two lousy ticks per day and the world will literally beat a path to your door, the rich and famous will toast you, beautiful women will throw themselves at you like you were an NBA star and you will have to have a secret address to prevent people from sending you money to manage. Two ticks per day.
If I started a chatroom and said my goal was two ticks per day, not only would I have no members, I doubt I could pay people enough to join. I certainly wouldn't join. We know it is possible to make much better returns. Honestly, it is not unreasonable to triple a futures account in a year. The trick is to do it year after year, and almost no one has ever been able to do that. Why not? Who knows, I guess because it is possible to get lucky for a few months and shoot the lights out. Markets change, but few will abandon a winning method.
I think the real lesson of this exercise is that there is a very fine line for daytraders between being a star and being part of the 90% crowd.
A 12% annual return would be better than virtually 99% of mutual funds over the past three years. A return of 24% over a period of years will put you in the same league as such neophytes as Warren Buffett, Bill Miller and Peter Lynch. Bump that up to 50% a year and they will reserve a spot for you in the Hedge Fund Hall of Fame, right between Julian Robertson and George Soros. What does that take anyway?
One percent a week with no compounding is 52% a year. On a $100,000 account, that is a measly $1,000 a week, or about what many newbie ES traders expect to make per day trading five lots. That is only $200 per day, a crummy $.20 move on a 1000 shares of stock. How easy is that? If you traded 5 lots in the ES, that is less than a point a day. Who trades 5 lots with a $100k account, not me for sure. More likely 10 lots, so you only need TWO TICKS per day. Two lousy ticks per day and the world will literally beat a path to your door, the rich and famous will toast you, beautiful women will throw themselves at you like you were an NBA star and you will have to have a secret address to prevent people from sending you money to manage. Two ticks per day.
If I started a chatroom and said my goal was two ticks per day, not only would I have no members, I doubt I could pay people enough to join. I certainly wouldn't join. We know it is possible to make much better returns. Honestly, it is not unreasonable to triple a futures account in a year. The trick is to do it year after year, and almost no one has ever been able to do that. Why not? Who knows, I guess because it is possible to get lucky for a few months and shoot the lights out. Markets change, but few will abandon a winning method.
I think the real lesson of this exercise is that there is a very fine line for daytraders between being a star and being part of the 90% crowd.