let's assume Germans won't bail out

Quote from Martinghoul:

I am long CHF, but, according to some data, Swiss banking system is quite exposed to the Eurozone peripherals. The Eurozone is also their main trading partner, still. I think it's still hard for Switzerland to not catch a cold when the Eurozone sneezes.
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While I agree with this premise in general, I think you underestimate the Swiss Banking System a bit. There is a reason why they chose to forgo the the Euro and maintain the franc.
 
Quote from 4EXJOE:

While I agree with this premise in general, I think you underestimate the Swiss Banking System a bit. There is a reason why they chose to forgo the the Euro and maintain the franc.
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I hope you're right, for both our sakes...

BTW, I am told the SNB were parked on the bid in EURCHF this morning and apparently got filled in yards.
 
Quote from Martinghoul:

I hope you're right, for both our sakes...

BTW, I am told the SNB were parked on the bid in EURCHF this morning and apparently got filled in yards.
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Yep I saw the same. they are known to intervene and maintain. not even the skechiest bucket shops could penetrate that...
 
Quote from 4EXJOE:

Yep I saw the same. they are known to intervene and maintain. not even the skechiest bucket shops could penetrate that...
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It's nice to have infinitely deep pockets, is all I can say...
 
As a european citizen (from one of the paying countries) i'm currently thinking about how to hedge against this clusterfk too. Obviously long the more stable ccys, but how/where? We won't be able to pay the italian and spanish bills too on top of Greece, so when the big european domino-day comes, the question is, which institutions have the least exposure to that shitstorm? Probably not the domestic banks.
 
Gold looks like ready for the next leg up, buy GC might be not too bad.


Quote from Pippi436:

As a european citizen (from one of the paying countries) i'm currently thinking about how to hedge against this clusterfk too. Obviously long the more stable ccys, but how/where? We won't be able to pay the italian and spanish bills too on top of Greece, so when the big european domino-day comes, the question is, which institutions have the least exposure to that shitstorm? Probably not the domestic banks.
More...
 
Quote from Pippi436:
As a european citizen (from one of the paying countries) i'm currently thinking about how to hedge against this clusterfk too. Obviously long the more stable ccys, but how/where? We won't be able to pay the italian and spanish bills too on top of Greece, so when the big european domino-day comes, the question is, which institutions have the least exposure to that shitstorm? Probably not the domestic banks.
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Italy is the no. 2 sovereign issuer in the world, after the US, in terms of the amount of debt outstandind (arnd $1.4trn). If Italy goes, I'd suggest the choice of which bank to entrust your money to would be the least of your worries.
 
Quote from Pippi436:

As a european citizen (from one of the paying countries) i'm currently thinking about how to hedge against this clusterfk too. Obviously long the more stable ccys, but how/where? We won't be able to pay the italian and spanish bills too on top of Greece, so when the big european domino-day comes, the question is, which institutions have the least exposure to that shitstorm? Probably not the domestic banks.
More...

Dollar, US Treasuries, gold, Singapore Dollar look like decent bets IMO.

I would avoid commodity currencies as they are correlated with commodity prices and thus basically equivalent to being long risk. You don't want to be long risk when you've had a 13 month record rally in risky assets and a sovereign debt crisis & contagion is about to blow up in the EU and potentially beyond. Safe havens are the best play, not risky or high yield havens.
 
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