Lets all be honest... the Bulls have never been away

[Fx-Game]

That is easy to say when many stocks are double and triple off their lows. That is very nice fat middle to trade as in paraphrasing Bernard Baruch I didn't make my money by buying the lows or selling the highs but trading in the fat middle.

I personally don't like ranges, but one must deal with what you get sometimes...

 

[wrbtrader]

So, did we really faced a bear market during that corona crisis?
Or isn't it much more of a big, very big, pullback?

A classical pullback does not break all kind of support levels, but an outrageous *spike* does.

This is how I see this crisis: Nothing but a negative 1,5-month spike for now.

We are facing a bull trend, ever since we reached the maximum drawdown.

No range at that time, nore L or U pattern.

Much more like a V pattern.

View attachment 226637

Why is this so, and why are so many traders and investors confident?

I think this is easy explained:
a) People were still bullish, as they are used it. Good stocks for low prices - that had its impact.
b) All realize that it is nothing but a flu, still a dangerous one, for which people have not been prepared. - But now they are!

During the peak of corona virus in asia, South-Korea and Taiwan neither shut down their economy nor had a huge lock down.
Why?
Because they were wearing masks by default, already used to it.
And obeying distance rules.

While in Europe and America, people were still celebrating and not taking it seriously.

Now that corona has hit that much, people are totally sensitive for it.
Most are holding distance and many wearing masks.

3 things must be true, so the Virus ends:
- enough masks and keeping distance
- enough test-kits for those, that get sick
- a tracking app, like it is common in Australia

So, this is something that is already on his way, and can be fulfilled.
It is just a matter of time (weeks).

Why, should Dow Jones or S&P 500 remain far down below all time highs, if this pandemic is already on its way to be solved?


However, debt, deficit, unemployment, will play out negatively on the economy...
We will most probably see some sort of W pattern, but no one can say when exactly.
[Maybe now? Take a close look at the DJ/ SP Chart ; ]

Edit: I am already short on both.

View attachment 226638

I think it is good for the economy, if we see now a W - a lower second pullback than the first - so that in a few weeks, when measures take place, we can go back to full bullish mode ;

I think it really doesn't matter if we have a bullish or bearish market just as long as there's not a ton of money being shoved into supporting either way...if the latter happens to fast...

Investors and traders become very nervous.

Yet, huge movements Up and Down create new profitable opportunities while killing off others.

That's capitalism.

wrbtrader

 

[Fx-Game]

So, just what I wanted to outline in the first post (unfortunately I cannot edit it anymore):
Something simple like just 'wearing a mask' already changes the whole story -
Probability to catch the flu goes down drastically...

This way everything looks different again.
While people have not been prepared, they are now.

Then the question is, how big a recession can get. It may won't get as big as projected...
And even it will: Recovery might occur a lot faster.

 

[Clubber Lang]

After the longest “bull” market in history (11 years), with PE’s at upper range, and the market leadership in only a handful of stocks, and now a worldwide shutdown for months and the historically slow 6 month period of May-Oct just beginning-
Who the F is rushing in to buy here?

Cash is a position people

 

[zdreg]

After the longest “bull” market in history (11 years), with PE’s at upper range, and the market leadership in only a handful of stocks, and now a worldwide shutdown for months and the historically slow 6 month period of May-Oct just beginning-
Who the F is rushing in to buy here?

Cash is a position people

Cash is wall paper. In Venezuela soccer balls are made from bank notes.

"Who the F is rushing in to buy here?"
Goldman is buying on secret/ not so secret orders from the Fed. It happened in 1987. It happened at recent lows with many stock rebounding now 2X and 3X their lows.
Look at the number of new account openings at Robin Hood.

 

[fidgetcube]

Cash is wall paper. In Venezuela soccer balls are made from bank notes.

"Who the F is rushing in to buy here?"
Goldman is buying on secret/ not so secret orders from the Fed. It happened in 1987. It happened at recent lows with many stock rebounding now 2X and 3X their lows.
Look at the number of new account openings at Robin Hood.

Citadel bought 7864059 shares of Tesla last week

 

[zdreg]

Citadel bought 7864059 shares of Tesla

Citadel's hedge fund owns 116,736 shares of Tesla (0.1%) while market-making business Citadel Securities owns 7,747,323 shares (4.2%).
Do these numbers make sense that the market making division owns the major portion??

 

[fidgetcube]

Citadel's hedge fund owns 116,736 shares of Tesla (0.1%) while market-making business Citadel Securities owns 7,747,323 shares (4.2%).
Do these numbers make sense that the market making division owns the major portion??

Maybe people bought so many calls from them that they had to hedge, so much that they even had to disclose the purchase.