Lessons from a failed trader

[padutrader]

Wow. How does this work? Sign me up.

that was bought in 1994 by my father..not me

 

[padutrader]

I thought you said you made 1000000000% on some Indian bank. Why do you need lunch money? Unless of course, you didn't make 100000000%.

may be i did maybe i didn't i give a fuck

 

[sef88]

that is re invested

Hmmm...do you even know what's 1000000000%? 1 dollar invested becomes 10 million.

 

[taowave]

Of course the past is no indication of the future,but several of my buddies who were engineers/accountants are worth well over 4 big ones,and they never made over 200 k per year.

And you are spot on,they were in index funds/EFT,domestic and international...I believe they only averaged down in the US..

Towards the end of my career,I worked at one of the largest hedge funds in the world,and there was not one single "technician"...By technician,I am referring to the type that post on this board..

Im not talking mean reversion,stat arb..I don't recall if there were any pure trend followers

The assumption of 8-12% lends well more to index funds. Implementing a discretionary value strategy probably will vary widely across value investors. Not everyone is a Warren buffet. Even so he has underperformed in recent years.

8-12% assumption on a single ctry index could also be a hit and miss. Lost decades are widely prevalent . Case in point, Japan in 1990s, US in 2000s. Even from where I come from - Singapore, our broad mkt index has never recovered since 2008.

Even if you manage to fulfill the 8-12% returns in indexes, the path to the end in 20 years could be zigging and zagging. Not anyone could stomach 30-50% drawdowns along the way. And you can avoid it with slightly more active systematic strategies.

Just don't place too much faith in a single asset class, geography or strategy. Always diversify.

 

[padutrader]

Hmmm...do you even know what's 1000000000%? 1 dollar invested becomes 10 million.

i did not say that that fellow did

i made 100 000 times the original invested amount in 1994 which was sold last year.

but someone questioned it ....and I give you know what

 

[sef88]

Of course the past is no indication of the future,but several of my buddies who were engineers/accountants are worth well over 4 big ones,and they never made over 200 k per year.

And you are spot on,they were in index funds/EFT,domestic and international...I believe they only averaged down in the US..

Towards the end of my career,I worked at one of the largest hedge funds in the world,and there was not one single "technician"...By technician,I am referring to the type that post on this board..

Im not talking mean reversion,stat arb..I don't recall if there were any pure trend followers

There are systematic trend following funds like Man AHL, Winton, Dunn Capital, AQR. Just that they don't do it in a simplistic way. They use different systems to measure trend strengths - scaling in and out of markets.

And yes - simple buy and hold may not work. Sideway mkts happen more often than trending markets.

Note: Some screenshot that I took from Sven Carlin's youtube video.

 

[taowave]

Hmmm..Lets go out on a limb and assume you got crazy and invested over 100 dollars.You made over 100,000 x your investment,so bare minimum you cashed out for 10 mil plus..Yet,you are slugging it out day trading based off squiggly lines

 

[d08]

why would some squiggly lines on a chart tell me if the business would be more valuable in the future. If you were to buy a local coffee shop, would you somehow try to use TA to buy it? Heck no, you would research competition, talk to customers, talk to the employees, etc..

You never understood what the squiggly lines meant. They're just graphing supply and demand, psychology. They were all never just random lines. Some of it is noise and it seems you were focused on noise.

Evaluation of trends (squiggly lines) is very useful on deciding which coffee shop to buy.

 

[Laissez Faire]

Well, they do say the failure rate of traders are around 90 % and I believe that to be true. Yet everyone entering this business think they will be the expectation.

As a successful day trader your one-week returns can match the yearly returns of a value investor. Of course, most don't achieve that, just like most people are fairly average in most other areas.

So in the end it's probably a wise choice for most people to pursue a long-term strategy, i.e., investment. Lower risk, lower margin of error and lower returns, but at least you don't waste your time and lose your money.

 

[tsznecki]

that was bought in 1994 by my father..not me

i did not say that that fellow did

i made 100 000 times the original invested amount in 1994 which was sold last year.

but someone questioned it ....and I give you know what

Hold on @padutrader either your father bought it or you did. Both cannot be true.

#BullshitDetected