Less than 20% fall in home prices will destroy the banking system?

[dividend]

1 in 3 don't know what kind of mortgage they have.


http://biz.yahoo.com/brn/070326/21330.html?.v=1&.pf=loans

In the survey conducted by Gfk Roper, homeowners with mortgages were asked what type of mortgage they had. A stunning 34 percent of the homeowners had no idea.

 

[bsparkyman]

This is Saving and Loan 2.0. Happened before. By the end of May there will be bailout bills floating around, passed by the end of the year. It is early in the primary season. Big bargains to be had in real estate coming up, again. Still not as bad as Japan in the 80's from which they have never recovered.

 

[thriftybob]

People don't walk away from homes because it becomes worth 20% less. They are there because they live there, so if they can wait it out, they will.

Those who have adj rate mortgages, that's a different question. Many won't have a choice as rates reset higher on them. Long rates are now rising, and values declining, so "The way is shut", and those people are toast.

Reminds me of the stories of 1929 and people with 5 yr balloon loans where they had to refinance every 5 yrs and couldn't. People ended up living on the Chicago river in boats and in shanty towns, and Hoovervilles during the depression.

I wonder if we will have Bushvilles?

 

[RoughTrader]

Quote from thriftybob:

People don't walk away from homes because it becomes worth 20% less. They are there because they live there, so if they can wait it out, they will.

And how are they supposed to "wait it out" and keep paying the mortgage when the recession has already taken their jobs?

It's pretty clear that unemployment on a national scale is going to be a big problem over the next few years. My only hope is that a recession or depression does not kill volatility in the markets. I remember Larry Livermore in "Reminiscences of a Stock Operator" complaining that the Great Depression completely killed stock market volatility for a number of years, leaving absolutely nothing to trade.

RoughTrader

 

[shelupinin]

Quote from RoughTrader:

And how are they supposed to "wait it out" and keep paying the mortgage when the recession has already taken their jobs?

It's pretty clear that unemployment on a national scale is going to be a big problem over the next few years. My only hope is that a recession or depression does not kill volatility in the markets. I remember Larry Livermore in "Reminiscences of a Stock Operator" complaining that the Great Depression completely killed stock market volatility for a number of years, leaving absolutely nothing to trade.

RoughTrader

I don't think that it is a problem those days cos you can trade foreign markets same electronic way as you trade US market...

 

[zdreg]

Quote from RoughTrader:

And how are they supposed to "wait it out" and keep paying the mortgage when the recession has already taken their jobs?

It's pretty clear that unemployment on a national scale is going to be a big problem over the next few years. My only hope is that a recession or depression does not kill volatility in the markets. I remember Larry Livermore in "Reminiscences of a Stock Operator" complaining that the Great Depression completely killed stock market volatility for a number of years, leaving absolutely nothing to trade.

RoughTrader

it is a law of a nature that whatever you trade will give you as much volatility as you can handle or perhaps a little bit more.

 

[dhpar]

is there a way that you can put all people in a specific thread to ignore list in one go?

 

[zdreg]

our posts crossed. however if necessary i would feel honored to be on your ignore list.

 

[dhpar]

I would never put such an inspiration as you <b>zdreg</b> on my ignore list...

This thread grabs my vote for the worst thread on ET.

 

[murray t turtle]

Quote from thriftybob:

People don't walk away from homes because it becomes worth 20% less. They are there because they live there, so if they can wait it out, they will.

Those who have adj rate mortgages, that's a different question. Many won't have a choice as rates reset higher on them. Long rates are now rising, and values declining, so "The way is shut", and those people are toast.

Reminds me of the stories of 1929 and people with 5 yr balloon loans where they had to refinance every 5 yrs and couldn't. [/QUOTE
=================

Also quite a difference between a 20 or 22% drop in stock prices or home prices;
and quote''.......destroy the banking system'' unquote.

Some good things came out of 1929/30s also ;
they started selling oil by the quart.