Less than 20% fall in home prices will destroy the banking system?

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Quote from spike500:

Completely wrong.

Your money on the bank stays what it is, all you get is intrest; houses have doubled (or even more) in the recent years. So the total profit for the "fool" is probably much higher than the return on the bank.

total return is: yearly income plus increased (or minus decreased) value of the investment.



If real estate is going to fall 20% like the gloom and doomers say then he is fixing to be down 120k of that 600k. If he bought this house for 200k 30 years ago or put 200k in a cd and let it compound 30 years ago, today he would have roughly 800 k in the account versus a 600k house that can lose 120k value during a downturn. If you throw in maintenance costs, new water heater, ac unit, heater, paint, etc and vacancy, advertisment, paying a leasing agent, then he is probably not even makng $200 a month.
 
Quote from ByLoSellHi:

In the March edition of The Economist, they talk of a correction already beginning in Ireland, Spain and Australia, and claim their projections show the U.K. correction will be soon underway.

It's their call, but I respect their hard data. You should read that article.
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Can't speak for Ireland or Australia...but the South of Spain is littered with British people and the amount of new building there when I was there a few years ago made it look like Southern California...I'd guess that was due to the expectation that millions of British would be retiring down there.

Perhaps that's where that correction is coming from. Billboards are often in English and they advertise the Golf Course lifestyle, that smacks of British or Americans.
 
Quote from blast19:

Bob, do you know what the mortgage brokers did with those loans? Bingo, they sold them to banks and funds....look at any lender...look at Countrywide, they did 1.2 trillion dollars in loans last year and they retain only about $145B in then...where do you think they went?





To your buddies at merril, goldman and morgan




:)
 
Quote from blast19:

Uh...there's a lot more long-time value in owning an asset like a house that can be rented than planting money in the bank...were you joking? :confused:



Only if you live in bubble land out west and east. Here in Texas appreciation stays slow and steady. Plus we don't have a state income tax. Cali is nice but the pay is not that great for the cost of living.
 
Quote from volente_00:

If real estate is going to fall 20% like the gloom and doomers say then he is fixing to be down 120k of that 600k. If he bought this house for 200k 30 years ago or put 200k in a cd and let it compound 30 years ago, today he would have roughly 800 k in the account versus a 600k house that can lose 120k value during a downturn. If you throw in maintenance costs, new water heater, ac unit, heater, paint, etc and vacancy, advertisment, paying a leasing agent, then he is probably not even makng $200 a month.


Are you bending reality on purpose or are you really that dense?

A guy buys a house 20 years ago...it's paid off. Now all he does is rent it out because he owns it clear and just likes to make money...half of the home rentals in Southern California are probably owned by people who have a basket of real estate and someone else managing it.
 
Quote from blast19:

Are you bending reality on purpose or are you really that dense?

A guy buys a house 20 years ago...it's paid off. Now all he does is rent it out because he owns it clear and just likes to make money...half of the home rentals in Southern California are probably owned by people who have a basket of real estate and someone else managing it.




Yes it is paid off, but tell me what taxes and insurance run on a 600k house out in SD ? They run about 3 % for both in TX and I know that is lower than SD. So he is renting it for 1700 a month and his cost NOT including vacancy, paying a leasing agent and paying for repairs are costing him at LEAST 1500 a month. Apreciation is one arguement, but his money is locked up in that house and he could be down 20% at any given time when the bubble pops out there ?
 
Quote from dhpar:

I would never put such an inspiration as you <b>zdreg</b> on my ignore list...:D

This thread grabs my vote for the worst thread on ET.

lol....i see you havn't been here very long....this is a pretty mild, well mannered thread.
 
Quote from volente_00:

Yes it is paid off, but tell me what taxes and insurance run on a 600k house out in SD ? They run about 3 % for both in TX and I know that is lower than SD. So he is renting it for 1700 a month and his cost NOT including vacancy, paying a leasing agent and paying for repairs are costing him at LEAST 1500 a month. Apreciation is one arguement, but his money is locked up in that house and he could be down 20% at any given time when the bubble pops out there ?

http://www.assessor.saccounty.net/general-information/real-property.html

There are perks to renting like being able to depreciate the property and expense fixups. Taxes might not be a huge issue.

Most property managers take 10%(for a really good one).
 
Quote from volente_00:

Only if you live in bubble land out west and east. Here in Texas appreciation stays slow and steady. Plus we don't have a state income tax. Cali is nice but the pay is not that great for the cost of living.


Then why are they assessing values annually if the appreciation is slow and steady ?
 
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