Wow, so now oil has peaked, I guess all that talk about Peak oil has been totally forgotten....
Lehman says oil prices have peaked
Fri Aug 8, 2008 4:33pm EDT
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Oil prices have peaked for the next few years amid signs tight supply and demand fundamentals are loosening, Lehman Brothers said on Friday.
"Barring a physical disruption that may temporarily spike prices, we judge that oil prices have peaked for the next few years," Lehman said in a research note.
"In our view, the recent correction in oil prices was overdue and softness awaits in the next 12 months."
Oil prices hit a record over $147 on July 11 after surging demand from emerging markets like China ignited a six year rally that sent prices up sevenfold at their peak.
Demand in the United States and other consumer nations has faltered under record fuel prices, helping to push oil down more than 20 percent from the all-time high.
In addition, the end of precautionary inventory building ahead of the Olympics by China and rising exports by OPEC kingpin Saudi Arabia are also weighing on prices, Lehman said.
"We judge that fundamental looseness is already emerging," the investment bank said. "Saudi Arabia again appears to be playing the role of swing supplier, pumping 500,000 barrels per day more than three months ago."
"Furthermore, a tipping point appears to have been reached in demand in numerous Asian markets."
Lehman said speculator interest, which added to crude's bullish run this year as investors bought commodities to hedge against rising inflation and the week dollar, was shifting as well.
"From a high near 130,000 contracts (on the New York Mercantile Exchange) long last year, net length has declined and even gone into net short territory in recent weeks," the bank said.
"Whether due to the attention of regulators or because of a different read on fundamentals, speculators have certainly changed their sentiment."
In a bid to ease high fuel prices, the U.S. Congress is considering legislation to limit speculative positions that can be held.
Lehman says oil prices have peaked
Fri Aug 8, 2008 4:33pm EDT
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Oil prices have peaked for the next few years amid signs tight supply and demand fundamentals are loosening, Lehman Brothers said on Friday.
"Barring a physical disruption that may temporarily spike prices, we judge that oil prices have peaked for the next few years," Lehman said in a research note.
"In our view, the recent correction in oil prices was overdue and softness awaits in the next 12 months."
Oil prices hit a record over $147 on July 11 after surging demand from emerging markets like China ignited a six year rally that sent prices up sevenfold at their peak.
Demand in the United States and other consumer nations has faltered under record fuel prices, helping to push oil down more than 20 percent from the all-time high.
In addition, the end of precautionary inventory building ahead of the Olympics by China and rising exports by OPEC kingpin Saudi Arabia are also weighing on prices, Lehman said.
"We judge that fundamental looseness is already emerging," the investment bank said. "Saudi Arabia again appears to be playing the role of swing supplier, pumping 500,000 barrels per day more than three months ago."
"Furthermore, a tipping point appears to have been reached in demand in numerous Asian markets."
Lehman said speculator interest, which added to crude's bullish run this year as investors bought commodities to hedge against rising inflation and the week dollar, was shifting as well.
"From a high near 130,000 contracts (on the New York Mercantile Exchange) long last year, net length has declined and even gone into net short territory in recent weeks," the bank said.
"Whether due to the attention of regulators or because of a different read on fundamentals, speculators have certainly changed their sentiment."
In a bid to ease high fuel prices, the U.S. Congress is considering legislation to limit speculative positions that can be held.