Legendary Julian Robertson Says U.S. To Suffer Poor Economy for 10 to 15 Years

These times have brought out a lot of prognosticators, and it's not hard to find people prognosticating in either direction. I'ts no coincidence that after a big down day, you hear a lot of very pessimistic predictions, and after a big up day you hear more of the other side. I suspect that people's "predictions" are colored by their current positions. For amateurs especially, but I'm sure even pros do this - if they've held a position too long, they'll continue to be negative after the market has turned around, etc.

Or possibly their fears drive them to think the other way: I personally find that things look more bullish to me when I'm long, and more bearish when I'm short.

This just says what most people already know - "expert" opinions have value hidden in them, but not if you take them at face value. Maybe a few individuals have really trustworthy opinions (George Soros possibly?) but even then, not all the time.

I'm sure this is 100% obvious to most people here, but seeing recent events just demonstrates it really well.
 
The problem with the next technolocial breakthrough is that

a) it's going to be a massive breakthrough, but
b) it's got the potential to destroy the world (well half of it anyway) without a single bullet, rocket, bomb etc going off.

Want to know what it is?

Not telling, but if you THINK hard (not even that actually) you'll get it. Trouble is that it's looks and sounds so exciting but the consequences will be dire..........

And one country, one stockmarket is probably going to LOVE it. And it ain't the US or China or even India for that matter.

You all got it yet?
 
Quote from ByLoSellHi:

I have no idea if Robertson is remotely sane in making that call.

I just wanted to pass it along because I thought it was pretty interesting that he's so gloomy on the macro situation in the U.S.

It also got me thinking as to whether equity markets can do well if the economy does go into a protracted downturn.

Anyone care to share their thoughts on this question?
More...

Robertson has some great macro views at times . . . no doubt about it.
And I genuinely don't believe that he is merely trying to "talk his position".

I think that what he is eluding to is the FACT that we have never seen a CONSUMER lead recession in our lifetimes, and perhaps our parents lifetimes, for that matter. Just think, 73/74 (oil), 80/81 (Volker), 90/91 (S&L crisis), 1998 (Asian currency crisis), (2001 Dot-Com collapse and 9/11), were all exogenous shocks to the economy that resulted in a contraction in business, but were not CONSUMER lead.

This time, Robertson feels that the economic contraction will be CONSUMER lead and this will result in a Japan style deflation, or disinflation that lasts for years - - - this is even more daunting when one considers the fact that the Japanese had a much higher savings rate than us during their economic contraction and malaise.

Now, one must be careful to make an important DISTINCTION between the economy and the stock market. It is very possible that the stock market is WAY AHEAD of the Economy . . . and is about "halfway" through "winter" whereas the consumer is just starting "winter".
 
Commodity cycle is in upswing till 2018 so 10 year from now. Higher prices will see slower economic growth as investment in other sectors will decline. Jullian is a macro guy and might be right on this one.
 
Quote from Landis82:

Robertson has some great macro views at times . . . no doubt about it.
And I genuinely don't believe that he is merely trying to "talk his position".

I think that what he is eluding to is the FACT that we have never seen a CONSUMER lead recession in our lifetimes, and perhaps our parents lifetimes, for that matter. Just think, 73/74 (oil), 80/81 (Volker), 90/91 (S&L crisis), 1998 (Asian currency crisis), (2001 Dot-Com collapse and 9/11), were all exogenous shocks to the economy that resulted in a contraction in business, but were not CONSUMER lead.

This time, Robertson feels that the economic contraction will be CONSUMER lead and this will result in a Japan style deflation, or disinflation that lasts for years - - - this is even more daunting when one considers the fact that the Japanese had a much higher savings rate than us during their economic contraction and malaise.

Now, one must be careful to make an important DISTINCTION between the economy and the stock market. It is very possible that the stock market is WAY AHEAD of the Economy . . . and is about "halfway" through "winter" whereas the consumer is just starting "winter".
More...

That's a brilliant thought process Landi. Thanks
 
Quote from AK100:

The problem with the next technolocial breakthrough is that

a) it's going to be a massive breakthrough, but
b) it's got the potential to destroy the world (well half of it anyway) without a single bullet, rocket, bomb etc going off.

Want to know what it is?

Not telling, but if you THINK hard (not even that actually) you'll get it. Trouble is that it's looks and sounds so exciting but the consequences will be dire..........

And one country, one stockmarket is probably going to LOVE it. And it ain't the US or China or even India for that matter.

You all got it yet?
More...


AI
 
Not exactly AI but getting very close.

OK, I'll tell you all. It's going to be Robots and by 2030 - 2040 some are3 suggesting that they'll dump up to 50% of the world's population out of work.

For example, why couldn't an entire Mcdonalds be run and operated by them?

The robots of the future, the ones that some people are so scared of are NOT the ones that like Hollywood promotes, going to take over the world and kill us all etc.

They're going to have -

1 - The object recognition capabilities of a 2 year-old child

2 - The language understanding of a 4 year-old, and

3 - The manual dexterity of a 6 year-old

Once that goal is achieved (possibly by 2012 - 2015) and they can be produced cheaply and efficiently then the potential social-economic problems they might cause are horrendous.

Don't laugh, the Robots are coming and it ain't good news for the majority although there will be NO excuse for having a dirty house :)
 
Quote from AK100:

Not exactly AI but getting very close.

OK, I'll tell you all. It's going to be Robots and by 2030 - 2040 some are3 suggesting that they'll dump up to 50% of the world's population out of work.

For example, why couldn't an entire Mcdonalds be run and operated by them?

The robots of the future, the ones that some people are so scared of are NOT the ones that like Hollywood promotes, going to take over the world and kill us all etc.

They're going to have -

1 - The object recognition capabilities of a 2 year-old child

2 - The language understanding of a 4 year-old, and

3 - The manual dexterity of a 6 year-old

Once that goal is achieved (possibly by 2012 - 2015) and they can be produced cheaply and efficiently then the potential social-economic problems they might cause are horrendous.

Don't laugh, the Robots are coming and it ain't good news for the majority although there will be NO excuse for having a dirty house :)
More...


It's kind of the same thing (as AI). We have robots now, but they're not such a huge threat to employment because they're not intelligent enough. Couple them with better AI, and then things are as you just said. Robots are just AI, given a mechanical body. It's not the body of the robot that's important, so much as the brain that controls the body.

AI is already advancing at a scary rate; I wouldn't be surprised if we see it before 2030. Who knows what the military has in their labs? They're definitely years ahead of the civilian world.

Once we have intelligent robots, all these extra people on the planet are no longer needed; they can be killed off by massive religious wars, disease, or both.
 
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