Learning About Intervention

Quote from gmst:

Two ways:
1. either know from experience when a CB is most likely to act and in what direction
2. trade very less size
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in what direction? I've only seen two interventions and both were to the downside and quite violent. What happens in an intevention when I guess they are trying to prop it up? Is it the same? or is it more of a slow steady thing?
 
Quote from oldtime:

I haven't been trading forex that long, but last night was the first time I saw someting move 4% in less than an hour. Fortunately I was short, but it could have gone the other way.

I took a majority of my profits. And then sure as shit it pulled back. So I guess if it moves against you during an intervention, the best idea is not to panic, because like I said it pulls back.
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Hi dear newtime,

the best way to trade interventions and interest changing, or anything else important stuff made by the central banks...
is to.....STAY OUT of the Market......

in that situations, the majors pairs can easily spike over 100pips in a few seconds...........easily..........
you cant protect your self against that, if you stay in the trade....

OK, if you have a long term trade, you can stay in......

But for short term trading, it would kill you one day, with staying in.........

regards:)
 
Quote from oldtime:

how many times should I see something happen before I start trying to figure it out?
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at least 100 times.

better for 1.000 times, then you can call it a trend and bet on the 1.001 time to be right.
 
Quote from gmst:

To be honest, this is a bit tricky. General guidelines I can give is - read news, look for cues from the chattery that comes from finance ministry/CBank officials. They initially try to do verbal intervention and when it fails, they resort to real intervention. These are all the cues I look for.
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yeah, as far as I know SNB never did actually intervene, they just announced they were going to peg to to EUR and all hell broke loose.
 
Quote from oldtime:
yeah, as far as I know SNB never did actually intervene, they just announced they were going to peg to to EUR and all hell broke loose.
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Of course they intervened...
 
Quote from HATEtheRisk:

Hi dear newtime,

the best way to trade interventions and interest changing, or anything else important stuff made by the central banks...
is to.....STAY OUT of the Market......

in that situations, the majors pairs can easily spike over 100pips in a few seconds...........easily..........
you cant protect your self against that, if you stay in the trade....

OK, if you have a long term trade, you can stay in......

But for short term trading, it would kill you one day, with staying in.........

regards:)
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now hate, it was so slow last night, nothing was happening, I was just arguing on ET about China and taxes, and then all of a sudden out of nowhere JPY has moved 4%, no way to get in or out until after it happened.

I'm still a short term trader, it's just it takes me so long to do anything anymore that I end up with long term positions.

Slow down a little and you may live long enough to inherit them from me when I die. I won't need them anymore, I'll just give them to you.

But I did still know enough to get the hell out with a nice quick profit, so I can keep up with you young whippersnappers if I am violently shocked into action.

P.S. Check your Oxford and see if whippersnapper is in there yet.
 
Quote from oldtime:

did they intervene and then announce? I remember, it was 4 am est.
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how do you know they intervened? Are there public records that people use to track what CB's are doing?
 
Quote from oldtime:

did they intervene and then announce? I remember, it was 4 am est.
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must be a heck of a way to make a living, you sell all your currency, and then announce that you are going to sell it all.
 
otherwise, ever since thay announced they would peg to EUR, EUR/CHF has been a lot of fun. You make a few bucks and feel like you are getting away with something.
 
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