You're taking on so much risk anyway, you might as well just write naked puts.
I mean, if you're going to pay $2 for a 5 strike put, then try to pick up the crumbs with covered calls every month, you're in for a rude awakening.
BAC is buying CFC in the next few months. If it falls through, CFC's going to zero, if it completes, it's going to turn into BAC stock (with the appropriate adjustments to options contracts). Either way you will lose money on your trade. If it goes to zero, there's not going to be any more covered calls you can write at any premium worthwhile. You will exercise your put to close out the position at a loss. If it spikes to the M&A value, your shares get called away, and you are left with a put worth very little.
If you really want to play CFC, you can try doing a merger & options volatility arbitrage.
My recommendation for that play would be:
- Short CFC Jan10 5 puts
- Long BAC Jan10 27.5 puts
Ratio of 11 CFC contracts <-> 2 BAC contracts
Net credit per 11 CFC/2 BAC contracts = $1510
I would add the following hedge to this trade:
SHORT 11 CFC Jan09 5 call. Net credit = $1408
LONG 2 BAC Jan09 37.5 call. Net debit = $540
Notional value of the trade:
$5500 Countrywide stock
Possible outcomes:
- BAC acquires CFC later this year, as anticipated, for $6.59 (current value) of BAC stock.
Your result: the 11 contracts of CFC Jan10 5 puts gets adjusted so it'll be approximately equal to the 2 BAC contracts you're short. (Profit: $1510) The ACTUAL adjustment will turn the deliverable of each CFC contract into 18 BAC shares and cash in lieu of .22 BAC shares
The Jan09 5/7.5 call spread gets adjusted to be approximately equivalent to a 27.44 / 37.5 BAC call spread. (Max loss: $1150 if BAC closes above 37.5 on expiration day. Assuming current prices, you'll probably lose $570 if you close it out right away)
Net profit: $940
- Deal falls through, CFC goes to zero
You're on the hook for the CFC 5 puts (Loss: $3990 - residual value of BAC 27.5 puts)
Your short 5 calls are worthless (Profit: $1408)
+ residual value of BAC 37.5 calls
Assuming residual values of the long options are half of what you paid for em, Net loss if CFC hits zero is $2022.
CFC has to be worth over $1.84 for you to not lose if the deal falls through.
- BAC revises so they pay $5 (.1388 BAC per CFC) per share
You'll be left with a net credit of $2378 from the trades, and the following positions after adjustments:
Long 36/37.5 Jan09 call spread (Max profit $300)
Short 27.5/36 Jan10 put spread (Max loss $2600)
If you close out all positions right away you'll probably walk away w/ $1000 profit in this scenario.
the CFC 5 vs BAC 27.5 spread is a basic options merger arbitrage trade.
the extra hedge offers some protection if the price for the deal is lowered (which may happen) or if the deal falls through.