leading Indicators, in before everyone else

Quote from spinn:

Ummmm didnt CL/Qm go up $2 yesterday as the market ran up as well?

By opposite....do you mean the opposite of what everyone thinks....sorta like George Costanza tried once?

Or is it the opposite of the opposite which means it would have the opposite result eevry other time?
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The thread starter stated the time frame he was interested in in the last sentence of his first post. thats the context i posted in.

In short timeframes Ym will sometimes react in the opposite direction to a quick move in CL/QM at least for a few ticks. But thats all to the good if one is looking to clip off some ticks and get out. It just gives you a heads up that a quick trade may be at hand depending on what else you are using for signals.

Here's a little paper on the relationship: oil(cl) vs Dow.
http://www.trade2win.com/knowledge/articles/general_articles/impact-of-crude-futures/. Note the timeframe.

And here is an interday chart...

http://www.freecharts.com/Commoditi...ize=B&ch1=011&evnt=ADV&page=chart&date=102606

... rj
 
Quote from panzerman:

There is one way and one way only, and that is to have opened your position yesterday. There exists nothing under the sun which will predicate the future for you with certainty and consistency.
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There are a few methods with 70+% accuracy which predict tradeable reversals which some might be daily high or low . Nothing can, so far, predict daily high and low, knowing it will be high and low.
 
THIS THREAD IS foolish

this can't be done, like that guy said taking tomorrows newspaper

the only thing is to learn analyzing support and resistance
 
Quote from FREElunch:

THIS THREAD IS foolish

this can't be done, like that guy said taking tomorrows newspaper

the only thing is to learn analyzing support and resistance
More...

You are foolish for thinking it cant' be done, maybe you don't work hard enough. Let my give you a clue. Floor traders, lets look back to the early 80s, when the s&p pit began. They used to look at other markets to give them clues to where the market might be headed. You be surprised how good a leading indictor the transports can be, in conjunction with the Dow, The strength or weakness in the transports often unmask an underlying trend that has not showed up in the Dow

Another good indicators are bonds. How does the Dow respond to a bond rally and what will be the reaction of the Dow? Does it break or show signs of support? Conversely how does the Dow behave in terms of a bond decline followed by a modest rally? does it stay weak or show strength. These are what I mean by leading indictors in how one market behaves in terms of another, whether it be Trans s&p bonds so on.

I bet 90% of you, don't know, what's been the market leader, in this broad rally. Answer on a post card.............
 
Quote from buzz:


I bet 90% of you, don't know, what's been the market leader, in this broad rally. Answer on a post card.............
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Do I have to spell it out? Does anyone know??? I thought we had some experience traders on ET, it's a simple question and the answer is simple.

buzz
 
I thought someone would know it, Do you want me to give you the answer?...I don't think you guys get this thread.
 
it's not quite a "leading indicator" but i have found that (generally speaking), the ES leads the YM.

often, it's only 1/5 of a second or so.

my point is that big moves usually start incrementally sooner in the ES than in the YM contract.

i watch the ES tape and I listen to the big s&p contract pit noise.

but i trade the YM

i also use NO lagging indicators for my futures trading. No MACD, no RSI, none of that stuff.

but that's me.

they are not really 'indicators' but imo if you know where the key reference areas are you can set a limit order there early, and catch a market turn. these are not indicators in the conventional sense.

and of course, support and resistance are key reference areas, as mentioned earlier
 
This makes sense to me. I have been trading on and off for over 20 years and have traded stocks, commodities over the phone and electronic futures in the e-mini ES. A lot of screen time all in all....:cool:

OK, back to what makes sense to me,,,,,,,,,,,,,,WATCH what you trade. Why as a ES trader would i give a look over to YM or ER2? Bonds are for traders that have been clinically diagnosed as being cronic incurable depressives. .... As a pure TA believer trading mostly support/resist, openings , etc, it is best to not stray.

With that in mind there is no reason at all to watch anything that indeed is not a trading instrument. Experience taught me a long time ago that the more one tries to correlate this with that it serves more as a confusing exercise in futility rather than being helpful.

Where is the value in even looking at other instruments? Believe me it is a waste of time and effort to stray from your bailiwick.

Do not over complicate this, it is quite simple once it gels and becomes more intuitive rather than trying to reinvent the wheel.

You are a trader not an inventor.:eek: :eek: :eek:
 
Quote from buzz:

I thought someone would know it, Do you want me to give you the answer?...I don't think you guys get this thread.
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Hmmm....based upon your initial post in comparison to your recent post...

That means your initial questions were just rhetorical and had nothing to do with you seeking help because you already knew the answer???

Quote from buzz:

...So let the discussion begin and how to get in to the YM.Dow before everyone else sees it on an intraday basis. The time frames would be from a tick chart to a 10 min chart.

What can we use?

What to look for?
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Simply, maybe nobody is answering now because they don't want to reveal the answer just like you don't want to reveal the answer.

Confusing. :p

What's up with the increasing number of cat-n-mouse threads here at ET???

Mark
 
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