Leading Economic Indicators and Kasriel Recession-Warning Indicators Flashing Red

[ByLoSellHi]

*Paul Kasriel is the recipient of the 2006 Lawrence R. Klein Award for Blue Chip Forecasting Accuracy.

In 45 years, the KRWI has never flashed a false signal.

In 45 years, the LEI has only flashed a false signal once (1967).

Words for the wise.

http://web-xp2a-pws.ntrs.com/content//media/attachment/data/econ_research/0703/document/ec032207.pdf

 

[duard]

Bernanke and Paulsen are just to swimmingly ebullient in their FED Speak. I say we are tanking. But it will be tempered by a low interest rate environ in addition to poor real estate and bond returns going forward as well as pokey emerging equities markets whcih brings us back to chasing alpha in the domestic equities markets.

Buy the big dips and trade the small dips I say. But yes a bigger dip than 5 % is coming so keep some powder dry and start researching names to buy for a long holder

 

[Trader5287]

Good article on falling trade deficit and an explanation of the disconnect between performance of the economy and the markets.

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

 

[crgarcia]

Military spending flashing green.
Keynesianism moves the US econmoy.

Half a trillion yearly certainly generates instant demand, and jobs.

No recession.
Maybe a sideways market but not bearish, for now.

 

[dandxg]

I see enough to say, as objectively as I can, we are heading down. Chances are the Dems are taking control and that is no good for defense spending.