Quote from Algorithm:
I always love these posts and discussions. It was only 4 years ago or so and we were all worried about deflation. The U.S. was running a surplus in the late 90's and the Euro was about .80 to the dollar. Now five years later the U.S. is going to be a third world nation and a truck load of dollars are going to be necessary to buy a loaf of bread.
US never had a surplus in the 1990s, the budget omitted SS and Medicare obligations. But there was an operating surplus, unlike todays budget.
US is slowly becoming more and more like Mexico, with the fastly widening rip between the rich & the poor, corruption and overinflated assets out of reach of the vast majority of the population
I gotta tell ya, it's worth a chuckle or two. There have been more jobs created in this "jobless" recovery of the last 3 years than Europe has created in the last decade. There's a reason for dollar denomination. Sure we could dry up the money supply jacking interest rates through the roof in a year and become just like Europe, a strengthening currency and an economy that grows at 2% per year and double digit unemployment.
Europe is socialist and provides a decent standard of living even to the unemployed. Europe is also not dependent on perpetual growth in order to keep their debt afloat.
US job creation over the last 5 years is reported by engineered governemnt reports. They are almost always revised down and take many creative calculation approaches, such as counting temp jobs as longterm under optimistic assumptions.
Any real job grown is backed by real estate bubble, a.k.a. debt. Construction, which is a cyclical industry has been a big growth driver but now that has ended. Same goes for related contracting work such as electricians, plumbers, architects. I'm not even gonna get into real estate & mortgage brokers, those are fly by night industries.
You don't think that there are countries out there that manipulate their currencies and keep them artificially low so their products stay cheap in the market place? China would never do anything like that, would they? Japan wouldn't be engaged in protectionist policies regarding lending and who can and can't own businesses which has kept their economy in a decade long recession? There's much more to currency valuation other than deficits, interest rates and how much money is printed.
Yes but this country does not produce anything significant anymore. US name brand products only get branded here, not made. Economy growth over the last 10-15 years has been from financial services since all those printed dollars needed to be put to work in a creative way. Technology also, like the ever so valuable and vital search engines. And don't forget Pharma, gotta keep the pill popping nation going.
At some point, simple math will take over. You cannot keep spending more than you produce because eventually the debt load becomes critical. It's not a question of "if" but a question of when.
Something to think about, there are 2 times more dollars outside of the US (Eurodollars) than there are in the US. I hope some of you can figure out what that suggests.