Latest unskewed electoral votes projection.

[Epic]

Quote from jem:

I was suggesting the previous elections serve as templates... every time.
If they are outliers fine... people will understand.


If you wish to present the argument they are outliers fine.
If you explain your weighting... people might even prefer your polls.

so what do you suggest is the proper
template of D R and I for
PA
OH

PA--

DEM -- 42%
GOP -- 39%
IND -- 17%
Other - 2%

OH--

DEM -- 37%
GOP -- 36%
IND -- 22%
Other - 5%

[edit] These are based on the 2000, 2004, and 2008 exit polls in those states and accounts for realistic increases in GOP turnout and somewhat depressed DEM turnout this year. In the end it is a 5 point swing in turnout toward GOP in PA and a 7 point swing toward GOP in OH.

What this means is that in order to win PA, Romney would need a 19 point edge with Indies. To win OH he needs a 8 point edge with Indies.

 

[jem]

by the way I think your numbers are a responsible template.
it you apply those templates to the polls... Romney is winning in Ohio... I have not done the unskewing in PA.

But I think the D turnout will be weaker.

or as the DEM lady said in one of luntz polling groups.

this debate is about whether some dems are going to vote for Romney or stay home.

 

[Epic]

Quote from jem:

by the way I think your numbers are a responsible template.
it you apply those templates to the polls... Romney is winning in Ohio... I have not done the unskewing in PA.

But I think the D turnout will be weaker.

or as the DEM lady said in one of luntz polling groups.

this debate is about whether some dems are going to vote for Romney or stay home.

Yeah, I've tried the best I could to get a fair forecast. The turnout in 2008 was;

Pennsylvania
DEM -- 44
GOP -- 37
IND -- 17
Other -- 2

Ohio
DEM -- 39
GOP -- 31
IND -- 27
Other -- 3

It is possible that DEM turnout in PA drops to about 41%, but in 2000 and 2004 it was 42 and 41 respectively. Most of the boost in '08 was an increase in minority vote, and a good portion of that will stay. There are actually only 4 counties there that are DEM. Obviously it is around Pitt and Philly. I know many people in the more rural areas there and they are quite conservative.

Doesn't really matter for R whether they vote for him or just stay home. Either way he wins in OH. My numbers above only count on a 2% drop in DEM turnout which is actually probably a low estimate. Then it counts on a good portion of uninterested IND like college students who don't really have a cause to get behind this year.

Very realistic numbers I think. And I think it accurately shows the uphill battle that R faces. In most of the swing states he must win IND voters by a margin of 6-10 points. My theory is that IND voters from state to state won't differ all that much. If R is ahead by 12 with IND in national polls, that is where he will fall in most swing states. That would give him OH, IA, CO, NC, FL, and VA.