Last Few Minutes of the Day

[flipflopper]

I noticed there is a spike in volume and large price move near the close on most days.

Today the YM gained 40 points from 3 minutes before the close to 30 minutes after. This was based on nothing meaningful that I could see.

My guess is that the big players try to settle large trades at the close. This move is usually more violent on volatile days and in the direction of the last hour trend.

I also noticed that if you fade that move a few minutes before the globex closes at 5:00pm you would make money covering the next day a large percentage of the time.

Anyone have any thoughts, comments, trading strategies based on this occurrence?

 

[Cdntrader]

Quote from flipflopper:

Today the YM gained 40 points from 3 minutes before the close to 30 minutes after. This was based on nothing meaningful that I could see.


Anyone have any thoughts, comments, trading strategies based on this occurrence?

"The market often moves contrary to apparent common sense and world events, as if it had a mind of its own, designed to fool most of the people, most of the time. It is therefore foolish to try and anticipate the movement of the market based on curren economic news and current events."

Jesse Livermore

 

[flipflopper]

Quote from Cdntrader:

"The market often moves contrary to apparent common sense and world events, as if it had a mind of its own, designed to fool most of the people, most of the time. It is therefore foolish to try and anticipate the movement of the market based on curren economic news and current events."

Jesse Livermore

Very true. It's errie how relevant philosophies from over 100 years ago still are.

I downloaded "Reminiscence's of a Stock Operator" on my ipod and listen to it everynight before sleeping. Anyone who made a 100 million in one year in 1929 is worth listening to.

Scariest thing is he lost it all and filed for bk in 34 and blew his brains out a few years later!!

I guess its something to look forward to!!

 

[kinggyppo]

Quote from flipflopper:

I noticed there is a spike in volume and large price move near the close on most days.

Today the YM gained 40 points from 3 minutes before the close to 30 minutes after. This was based on nothing meaningful that I could see.

My guess is that the big players try to settle large trades at the close. This move is usually more violent on volatile days and in the direction of the last hour trend.

I also noticed that if you fade that move a few minutes before the globex closes at 5:00pm you would make money covering the next day a large percentage of the time.

Anyone have any thoughts, comments, trading strategies based on this occurrence?

Today was follow thru on the rally. Yes this happens alot, you could have opened up a postion around the close. The emini sp for example traded down before the open and then rallied. It is hard to say to what extent it is manipulation, volume spikes in thinner markets, etc. The trick is to be on the right side. The end of the day scalp is a good idea on the YM when you clearly have momentum on your side. Just my .02 cents.

 

[flipflopper]

Quote from kinggyppo:

Today was follow thru on the rally. Yes this happens alot, you could have opened up a postion around the close. The emini sp for example traded down before the open and then rallied. It is hard to say to what extent it is manipulation, volume spikes in thinner markets, etc. The trick is to be on the right side. The end of the day scalp is a good idea on the YM when you clearly have momentum on your side. Just my .02 cents.

I would have guessed follow through would be 10 to 15 points above closing price in the most extreme cases.

This was a hell of a move but I'm wondering if it's based on a trade imbalance and why if that's the case is it usually so fadeable if planning to cover the next day.

 

[stock_trad3r]

You guys are over analyzing things

goes up and down

 

[blackchip]

Noticed that and similar weird things - spooz move down on heavy volume then takes back all that move and more on negligible volume. Short covering? Doesn't act like it.

Maybe the market is prepping to do a 1999.

Quote from flipflopper:

I noticed there is a spike in volume and large price move near the close on most days.

Today the YM gained 40 points from 3 minutes before the close to 30 minutes after. This was based on nothing meaningful that I could see.

My guess is that the big players try to settle large trades at the close. This move is usually more violent on volatile days and in the direction of the last hour trend.

I also noticed that if you fade that move a few minutes before the globex closes at 5:00pm you would make money covering the next day a large percentage of the time.

Anyone have any thoughts, comments, trading strategies based on this occurrence?

 

[flipflopper]

Quote from stock_trad3r:

You guys are over analyzing things

goes up and down

Never ever respond to any post I make ever again. You are total waste of space space and add no value to anything you do or have ever done. I'm sure you post to annoy traders and you do a great job. You should think about why you are alone in life. You have a repulsive being and personality and I wish I never had to interact with such worthless waste of life.

 

[flipflopper]

Gonna put my money where my mouth is short YM 13694.

 

[SiSePuede!]

Quote from flipflopper:

I would have guessed follow through would be 10 to 15 points above closing price in the most extreme cases.

This was a hell of a move but I'm wondering if it's based on a trade imbalance and why if that's the case is it usually so fadeable if planning to cover the next day.

Honestly looks like lack of sellers and buyers buying. Not much there though in my opinion...good earnings will see the market push on, albeit less than before, and bad earnings might finally lead to a selloff.

I will say that after this earnings run, if it moves the markets higher, will be a great time to short because the world and markets have become much more unstable seeming and as the economies problems unfold the markets will be more likely to sell off as bonds are turned to for the rest of the year.

The only thing helping the economy now is that the dollar is falling apart and emerging markets are growing and large caps are moving into those markets and making money in them. You can see that any of the blue chips reporting good growth are doing it thanks to overseas sales.

Markets look much less steady than they have for the last year...it's perhaps time to see some deflation in the markets. I do think a bull rush is on for commodities still...metals can probably push higher since China has ridiculous demand.

Cheers bro.