Larry Williams update: "Now on the run" - Daily Telegraph
- Thread starter travelingtrader
- Start date
fwiw: Any post by Austin P in this forum is no one else but me... Austin P.
I do not believe in the use of any alias myself. I only write inside here exactly what I'd say face to face with the people I'm talking to. I simply pretend we are talking over a diet coke or beer, and that's how I elect to share my words in this forum. To each their own... live & let live.
I often wonder if there is a difference in words between personal conversation face to face versus the use of alias on the web.
**
Specific to the topic of this thread, I built some trade systems in the FX akin to logic used by Larry in his 1987 trading. Two of those systems would have made +/- $75,000 per single GBPUSD contract (AFTER bid/ask spread and commissions) from April 2003 thru April 2004 in real time, walked forward.
In early 2004 I wrote and began trading one-lot GBP with $10k via mechanical system, which pyramided to almost $100K balance in less than three months, early 2004.
The breakout system used a +200 pip profit exit and -120 pip stoploss. No trailed stops were used... any attempts at that degraded the bottom line and profit per trade aspects. Believe me, we tried them all.
The next trade taken after account was up +1,000% was 20-lot position that went exactly +196 pips past entry. It needed a measly +8 pips more (cover bid/ask) and +$40,000 on that trade was realized. Didn't happen... trade went back down thru the stoploss for max loss, whole swing happened overnight while I slept.
***
Here's the point: had I discovered & used that specific system design from early 2003 thru 2004 in the GBP or EUR FX, it would have been a cinch to make several $million on the initial $10k. The only losing months were Oct and Dec 2003, other months were all profitable, some huge. I'd have maxed out whatever contract size is tops for GBPUSD and pressed it all the way from there... until profit size became significant.
After mid-2004? Volatility waned, big directional surges turned into sideways contraction. System logic went from printing money to burning money in a flash. The 10k to 100k account was closed out at 20k when it gave back the rest. The system logic is no longer net profitable, will not be until volatility and large trend action resumes.
See the parallel to what Larry did in S&P and bonds? Caught favorable market action that worked in harmony with very aggressive contract management. Timing is everything!
Lessons learned in that whole mechanical system foray were invaluable to me now, but costly then.
Hope this helps
Austin P
I do not believe in the use of any alias myself. I only write inside here exactly what I'd say face to face with the people I'm talking to. I simply pretend we are talking over a diet coke or beer, and that's how I elect to share my words in this forum. To each their own... live & let live.
I often wonder if there is a difference in words between personal conversation face to face versus the use of alias on the web.
**
Specific to the topic of this thread, I built some trade systems in the FX akin to logic used by Larry in his 1987 trading. Two of those systems would have made +/- $75,000 per single GBPUSD contract (AFTER bid/ask spread and commissions) from April 2003 thru April 2004 in real time, walked forward.
In early 2004 I wrote and began trading one-lot GBP with $10k via mechanical system, which pyramided to almost $100K balance in less than three months, early 2004.
The breakout system used a +200 pip profit exit and -120 pip stoploss. No trailed stops were used... any attempts at that degraded the bottom line and profit per trade aspects. Believe me, we tried them all.
The next trade taken after account was up +1,000% was 20-lot position that went exactly +196 pips past entry. It needed a measly +8 pips more (cover bid/ask) and +$40,000 on that trade was realized. Didn't happen... trade went back down thru the stoploss for max loss, whole swing happened overnight while I slept.
***
Here's the point: had I discovered & used that specific system design from early 2003 thru 2004 in the GBP or EUR FX, it would have been a cinch to make several $million on the initial $10k. The only losing months were Oct and Dec 2003, other months were all profitable, some huge. I'd have maxed out whatever contract size is tops for GBPUSD and pressed it all the way from there... until profit size became significant.
After mid-2004? Volatility waned, big directional surges turned into sideways contraction. System logic went from printing money to burning money in a flash. The 10k to 100k account was closed out at 20k when it gave back the rest. The system logic is no longer net profitable, will not be until volatility and large trend action resumes.
See the parallel to what Larry did in S&P and bonds? Caught favorable market action that worked in harmony with very aggressive contract management. Timing is everything!
Lessons learned in that whole mechanical system foray were invaluable to me now, but costly then.
Hope this helps
Austin P
My apologies. Marketsurfer is not nearly as discerning.
No apology needed, <b>thunder</b>. I've been called a lot worse by many more. Back in August 2000 I wrote a column for OptionInvestor (since sold and new ownership) that predicted a big market slide pending. The COT report was all-time historical bearish, trend charts looked terrible, sector breakdowns loomed everywhere.
I literally got death threats amongst the flame mails there. I was asked to soften my bearish stance, lest cancellations would surge. Didn't change my outlook, and then September 2000 arrived.
I've often wondered how many of those go-go tech option bulls would have actually threatened my life had we been face to face. Some perhaps, but not many of them :>)
I literally got death threats amongst the flame mails there. I was asked to soften my bearish stance, lest cancellations would surge. Didn't change my outlook, and then September 2000 arrived.
I've often wondered how many of those go-go tech option bulls would have actually threatened my life had we been face to face. Some perhaps, but not many of them :>)
Actually, it is needed. When I believe I made a mistake, I own up to it. However, our differences of opinion as it relates to Larry will continue.
I've been to three Larry Williams seminars ($6k total) and really haven't used anything learned there to make one dime. I'm not saying his info is worthless, but to me it didn't offer any real benefit. There are literally 1,000s of past students, so some number must be happy with material presented.
I know a lot of traders who hang their financial futures on his system signals and predictions. I'd prefer to base my future on my own learned decisions... not third-party mechanical picks. Personal experience has sure taught me that.
As for why Larry has not historically dominated or even placed well in said public contest? I myself think the answer lies in description of my own FX system travails. Timing is everything, and sometimes there is no second chance.
The same contest has recently been won twice by a trader who was up 600+% to end 2004, but has merely tread water ever since.
Times change, markets change... mechanical systems remain the same.
I know a lot of traders who hang their financial futures on his system signals and predictions. I'd prefer to base my future on my own learned decisions... not third-party mechanical picks. Personal experience has sure taught me that.
As for why Larry has not historically dominated or even placed well in said public contest? I myself think the answer lies in description of my own FX system travails. Timing is everything, and sometimes there is no second chance.
The same contest has recently been won twice by a trader who was up 600+% to end 2004, but has merely tread water ever since.
Times change, markets change... mechanical systems remain the same.
true. he freely admits that the contest win was the result of huge risk and tons of luck. larry is just a regular guy with lots of knowledge about trading, certainly not a market wizard. he imparts a system in his training that actually can work if applied correctly--no magic here. if someone wants to pay for it, what's wrong with this??
thunderdog--- i am not using any aliases. it is quite telling that you and steve o think everyone is me, i must make quite the impression! LOL !
surf
nice to meet you, austin. i think we may know the same people.
i have had the same experience as you relate above.
regards,
Yes, you do marketsurfer/hank rollins/austin powers/bunnypink. There are others, but life is too short. So, I'll just refer to you as marketsurfer et al.