Larry Williams still in the ring...

[MKTrader]

%% Thanks for your comment; filled with errors.
And also proves my point,MKT, depending on start; QQQ started in 1999 + ran up from $55 to$ 120 area. I have so many charts on that one-no sir= you may get 4% .
But You're right on buy + hold, on a top trender.,

Not sure what "errors" there were. I admitted 2000 is a bad start date. However, from 1972-2017 (45 years = realistic lifetime investment), the NASDAQ returned 10.8 vs. 10.5% for S&P 500. Not much difference and honestly that was a quite bullish period. It included the 80s, 90s and post-2008 run-up.
https://fourpillarfreedom.com/sp-500-vs-nasdaq-100-which-index-is-better/

The previous 45 years (1926-1971) would've had a much smaller 1-digit return due to the Great Depression. Again, we're talking Ramsey's idea on mutual funds over a lifetime (original discussion)--not cherry-picked periods where an index has an 18% CAGR.

 

[murray t turtle]

Not sure what "errors" there were. I admitted 2000 is a bad start date. Not much difference and honestly that was a quite bullish period. It included the 80s, 90s and post-2008 run-up.
https://fourpillarfreedom.com/sp-500-vs-nasdaq-100-which-index-is-better/

The previous 47 years (1926-1971) would've had a much smaller 1-digit return due to the Great Depression. Again, we're talking Ramsey's idea on mutual funds over a lifetime (original discussion)--not cherry-picked periods where an index has an 18% CAGR.

%%
QQQ started @$55 area+ ran up to $120 area, 1999 not 2ooo; one huge error among many.Glad to hear you dont think much of QQQ/difference ; markets dont work well when all think alike.So when you pick the peak ,worst; i tend to pick the best + 1999 start . I like mine more than yours.
Another big error of yours, 1980s are quite typical .
Even more important,USA stock market is in a 200+ year uptrend. And with the number of millionaires made in USA stockmarket long term; who cares if its ''quote, quite bullish'' or just plain uptrend/ bullmarket for 200 plus years.,

 

[MKTrader]

%%
QQQ started @$55 area+ ran up to $120 area, 1999 not 2ooo; one huge error among many.Glad to hear you dont think much of QQQ/difference ; markets dont work well when all think alike.So when you pick the peak ,worst; i tend to pick the best + 1999 start . I like mine more than yours.
Another big error of yours, 1980s are quite typical .
Even more important,USA stock market is in a 200+ year uptrend. And with the number of millionaires made in USA stockmarket long term; who cares if its ''quote, quite bullish'' or just plain uptrend/ bullmarket for 200 plus years.,

No, dude, I provided long-term irrefutable data. You've provided opinions ("I like mine 1999 more than yours."). You only get to choose favorable start dates in hindsight.

As for the 1980s, a 17.5% return isn't "typical" when the average decade had a 9.6% return.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/t...best-decades-for-stocks-ever-uh-oh-2018-04-11

Again, facts/data > unsupported opinions. Nice talking. I'm done.

 

[murray t turtle]

No, dude, I provided long-term irrefutable data. You've provided opinions ("I like mine 1999 more than yours."). You only get to choose favorable start dates in hindsight.

As for the 1980s, a 17.5% return isn't "typical" when the average decade had a 9.6% return.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/t...best-decades-for-stocks-ever-uh-oh-2018-04-11

%%
You may do better with a study of trends ; not just trend failures .That is unless you like bear or bull failures ; in that case keep on the way you do it.You made another error-''only chose favorable start dates in hindsight.'' LOL ;AS if there is only one or few favorable start dates??LOL

 

[MKTrader]

%%
You may do better with a study of trends ; not just trend failures .That is unless you like bear or bull failures ; in that case keep on the way you do it.You made another error-''only chose favorable start dates in hindsight.'' LOL ;AS if there is only one or few favorable start dates??LOL

That's not an error. Look up the word "pedantic."

 

[murray t turtle]

That's not an error.

%%
Sure; + you dont like QQQ, good .Then stay away from it. IF all i could get from QQQ was your 4% average annual -i would stay away from it.,

 

[Steve Alexander]

"I started trading my E-mini S&P AutoTrade® program on WorldCupAdvisor.com on 3/11/2014 to trade one contract of the E-Mini S&P with a starting balance of $20,000. The Net-Profit generated since then has been $19,378 after deducting all commissions and fees in 61.45 months of trading with a Drawdown of -47.8% (6/30/14 to 1/31/15).

That’s a Net-Return of 96.9% showing that mechanical strategies can hold up in real time. You can make the same trades at the same time in your own account automatically at WorldCupAdvisor.com."


How many of you would sit through or have sat through a a near 50% drawdown or to make 100%?

I write and trade my own systems. Currently, I have a 30% profit since November, 2018, and a 3.25% draw down during that time. That is an annualized return of 60%, with a draw down of 7%. All commissions and fees are included. I tweet all my trades the day BEFORE I make them. See @RandomFour

 

[MKTrader]

I write and trade my own systems. Currently, I have a 30% profit since November, 2018, and a 3.25% draw down during that time. That is an annualized return of 60%, with a draw down of 7%. All commissions and fees are included. I tweet all my trades the day BEFORE I make them. See @RandomFour

Congrats on a good 6 months. Join the club of many, many others with short-term success. And seriously, those are good results. But as I said earlier on this this thread: "if you're saying you made 25-30% with a 4% MDD in a single year, I believe that's possible. I did it myself one year. Occasionally all the stars line up and you have the perfect system for the current market. But if you believe you can do this year after year, that's not realistic at all."

Your results will either heavily degrade or you'll be a billionaire in under a decade.

 

[ironchef]

I think Ramsey wants people to avoid what he considers risky investments (flipping houses, trading options or cyptos, etc.) so he overstates his case.

Trading options is no riskier than day trading or swing trading stocks, commodities, futures.... In fact because of limited losses, can be less risky.

 

[MKTrader]

Trading options is no riskier than day trading or swing trading stocks, commodities, futures.... In fact because of limited losses, can be less risky.

I'm talking about Ramsey, not my own views. As for options, sure--depending how you trade, how small you trade, etc., they can be safe. But I will say option premium sellers are among the worst at going belly up: Karen the "Supertrader," Optionsellers.com and many lower profile firms and individual traders. It's so easy to pick up pennies in front of a train, i.e., make 5% per month through periods like 2016-17, then suddenly a month like Feb 18 or Dec 18 comes along. Ironically, Karen busted before that...in a stock market downturn that wasn't even very severe (fall 2014 I think).