Large time frames...............

[intradaybill]

Quote from Eddiefl:

So my question is how many of you guys and gals have seen the same observations, gathered the same data, have come to the same conclusions.??? Or maybe have different observations. I am open to discussions. ??

Just because you have these observations that does not mean they apply to everyone or they are valid for all. Trading has changed a lot and traditional methods of intraday trading no longer work because of HFT robots who milk the cows out there to death. Swing trading methods have not changed. No matter what happens intraday, you get that single bar or candle that basicaly obscures intraday action. I have come to the same conclusions as you, not because swing trading is better but because this is what I can do given my resources. If you have the resources to run robots on collocated servers maybe intraday trading is better.

I think for the retail guy swing or position trading are the only routes. Those who insist daytrading the old way have little chance to compete.

 

[Eddiefl]

Quote from deadbroke:

If you're trading off Weekly for real-life positions, you are already a winner. I look at Yearly/Q/M/W twice a month mostly for insight esp. to see if something was missed.

But trading off the Weekly with occassional use of Daily for timing is the ultimate way to go. It can't be beat.

But here at ET anything above 5-min. timeframe is a foreign language - you should teach them the grammar first before conversing, otherwise its akin to talking to autistic kids in a video arcade.

Yea, i hear ya.

The win/loss ratio on weekly time frame and i know win/loss is not everything, but i would say win/loss win ratio on weekly 401k positions is 88% wins, from the last 9 trades since 2007, 8 out of 9 are winners, haha,,,

I am sure you would find the same results in many markets using weekly charts. with worse and worse win/loss ratios the smaller time frame you go.

It comes down to patience, i think. Trading attracts mostly aggressive, impatient and driven individuals. So they are presented with swing trading and it seems to slow to them. they have to hurry up and wait, and they dont have the patience for swing trading/postition trading.

MOst spend time looking at weekly gains, daily p+l etc.. I only say that because thats where I was for several years.

I would say to remedy, for example: take 200k, get a 65% return= 130k divide by 12, divide by 4, divide by 5= 541.00 avg daily gain. They can factor, ok, here is one system that can make me an avg of 541.00 per day....... everyday..... net win every single day, net win every single month..... i would say pretty hard if not impossibloe to do that daytrading every single day.

It comes down to patience, really.

EF

good post

EF

 

[Eddiefl]

Quote from The_Gekko:

Can't tell you how many times I've heard that analogy put different ways over the years. Truthfully it's a matter of how well equipped/capable your trading platforms are and your time commitment. I've seen systems built where 10 minutes is considered to correspond with a year of trading, with high end everything, surrounding it, to make it succesful. On the other hand I've seen some really good things pop out of tradestation that swing trade pretty vigorously on the back of institutional level money. So it's more a question of if your willing to take your dingy out on the Atlantic and hope that it takes you too where the wild things are ,or if you want to sail on a yacht with a party of others while someone else steers the ship.

Well said GEkko,

i would think the sailing on a yacht party letting other steers sounds better. Especially if there is a OIl tanker infront of you clearing the way, just follow the big ships.

EF

 

[Eddiefl]

Quote from intradaybill:

Just because you have these observations that does not mean they apply to everyone or they are valid for all. Trading has changed a lot and traditional methods of intraday trading no longer work because of HFT robots who milk the cows out there to death. Swing trading methods have not changed. No matter what happens intraday, you get that single bar or candle that basicaly obscures intraday action. I have come to the same conclusions as you, not because swing trading is better but because this is what I can do given my resources. If you have the resources to run robots on collocated servers maybe intraday trading is better.

I think for the retail guy swing or position trading are the only routes. Those who insist daytrading the old way have little chance to compete.

Intraday, your right, there observations dont apply to everyone, and I stated that in the first post. And there are many making $$$ money intraday. So dont change anything guys, keep doing what works.

BUt you bring up a good point, the HFT have also changed the equities world, i am not in that micro arena, the smallest i trade is 10mim time frame, but i am sure they have affected it.

And you speak of resources, swing positions may be the better place to allocate resources, due to costs, time restrictions other business etc..

For example making: 1.75 points per trade avg on the qqq is being smarter with your resources than going for a .17 gain per trade on short term.

I agree with your points, thanks for the inputs.

EF

 

[The_Gekko]

Quote from Eddiefl:

Well said GEkko,

i would think the sailing on a yacht party letting other steers sounds better. Especially if there is a OIl tanker infront of you clearing the way, just follow the big ships.

EF

Yeah it's pretty obvious... If you know you're working with a dingy of a trading platform you damn sure better be sailing behind something big.

 

[LEAPup]

Here's a weekly of the SPY.

Once we reach the 121x level...

 

[Eddiefl]

Quote from LEAPup:

Here's a weekly of the SPY.

Once we reach the 121x level...

Excellent chart,, thats what i am talking about.

great use of caiptal. i see 3-4 long term trades in that charts.

lower risk, larger gains. JUst need patience

 

[Wallace]

I think intraday trading is similar to roulette betting and even that can be slow, but
there's also the matter of trading margin

being on the west coast and not a naturally early riser I've traded the 6E from the
afternoon thru evening and into the night, same for eurusd
and as syspool has pointed out, many 4H signals occur during the US night hours
similarly the ES and others but I think the fx pairs lend themselves to overnight and
longer term trading in part because there's no increase in margin

if someone has an intraday profit target of 30, 40 or 50 pips/ticks during whatever
his/her trading hours are, that's a considerable sum of money - $375 $500 $625 @
$12.50 per pip/tick especially when trading x multi contracts so it's an understand-
able reason to trade intraday

I think Eddiefl's points are accurate, I also believe it's the 'nature/psyche' of the
individual which timeframe s/he might be inclined to use, and importantly, their
trading method/system, how good the B/S signals are

 

[Eddiefl]

Quote from Wallace:

I think intraday trading is similar to roulette betting and even that can be slow, but
there's also the matter of trading margin

being on the west coast and not a naturally early riser I've traded the 6E from the
afternoon thru evening and into the night, same for eurusd
and as syspool has pointed out, many 4H signals occur during the US night hours
similarly the ES and others but I think the fx pairs lend themselves to overnight and
longer term trading in part because there's no increase in margin

if someone has an intraday profit target of 30, 40 or 50 pips/ticks during whatever
his/her trading hours are, that's a considerable sum of money - $375 $500 $625 @
$12.50 per pip/tick especially when trading x multi contracts so it's an understand-
able reason to trade intraday

I think Eddiefl's points are accurate, I also believe it's the 'nature/psyche' of the
individual which timeframe s/he might be inclined to use, and importantly, their
trading method/system, how good the B/S signals are

Wallace all good points. And your post made me think of a couple more viable reasons to use larger time frames or why somebody would use larger time frames.

I think the maturity may play a factor in choosing a larger time frame.

Take a 24 yr old guy, with a 100k account, just getting into trading. He reads some books, some newsletters, subscribes to some dayttrading sites, etc.. will he be inclined to daytrade or swing trade. HE will say to himself, I am aggresive, ambitous young man, i want to scalp some 3 min charts and make 1000% per year.

He wont say, "hmmm let me sit back and think this out, i want a system that gives me 2-3 triggers per month max, so there is a lot of sitting around time. and i am looking to compound my returns and see where i am after 3-4 years of 60-70% returns.

Take a 55yr old guy, that is more patient, that is not in for the excitment, says hell, All i need is 60-70% per year swing trading, let that grow in 2-3 years I will be sitting fat and happy.

I think it comes to expeirnce and maturity on why some time frames are choosen.

Also, I would say another good reason is account size. I have read and beleive most day trading accounts are blown up, because a person with a small account tries to hit the fences, they go for 1000% or more. they kinda have to. Take a 25k account and you do a very decent 60-70% return in a year, that is too small they cant live off that or pay bills etc. So with a small account you kinda have to go for the fences.

This very good pit trader that i used to follow said, "when he started trading 30yrs ago, all the guys that went for 400-500% per year , blew up and are out of the business, all the guys that just tried doubling thier money every year are still in the business and are all mulit-millionaires.

So, yea, swing trading is much easier to do with a larger account, obviously the first year if you made 50-60% on a 2million account, is sufficient to live with. and you dont have to swing for the fences every week or month.

So account size and patience that comes with maturity are big factors in swing/position trading successfully.

EF