Large part of profitability is the spotting of trend, and that is difficult

[padutrader]

The problem is, that however you define a trend, when they start and when they end are randomly distributed in time. You need to backtest your definition of a trend in order to get an idea if it has a statistical edge and thus lead to a positive expectancy method. Otherwise you are shooting in the dark.

back testing is over rated

unless you have a basic technical reason for what you are back testing, that may just be not there in the future, simply because it has no reason for being there and which is why most patterns disappear.

the basic problem with traders is all of them want easy money-which is there for the taking in markets-but they also want big money. easy money cannot be big money.

if you think this trade can make easy money and it is obvious and so it is high probability. which also means low reward.

you cannot ask for something which is not there.

a trend is something that goes on and on and so you can make big money.........but relatively speaking these are not so common. and the strongest of trends, for most of their life, grind and are painfully slow for those looking for a fast buck.

counter trends on the other hand are viciously fast and so all traders are attracted to them.

i trade mainly these

but i am very much aware of what i am doing: i take the small reward that is offered, in absolute terms it is small, but because it is obtained in very little time, it is worth it. you do not need to spend hours in the market watching your position.........

they say market ranges 70% of the time so why search for the elusive trend... big one......the pot at end of the rainbow

 

[padutrader]

Those who day traded gold would most likely lose money.

i made 300% trading it

but i stay out of trends

so i like gold.......it is lovely for a hard core trader......

trading requires that you understand exactly what you are doing.

obviously you do [undertand] so you stay out of gold.........

i understand exactly what i do, so trade only gold and make money, lots of it every day.

you do not need a lot of knowledge to make money in trading but you do need a lot of understanding

bulls make money bears make money pigs get slaughtered

 

[padutrader]

A guy (Polish who thought he was Italian) my younger brother used to work with would say about his teenage daughter, effen a she don'ta listen ina one ear and ina the other. My brother just laughed and never corrected him because he didn't think it would help any.

Like some of the posts I read here and many other trading related topics.

do not criticize others needlessly

why do you not post and show how it should be done

why do you not let us benefit from your wisdom.

come on have a heart

 

[padutrader]

The problem is that almost all beginners don't have skills to identify trends at early stage of making until it becomes too late.

the problem with beginners is that they want fast money AND big money.

they leave out the easy money because easy money cannot be big....i accept that all day: easy money.... small money......it may all add up... but it is easy money.

i want easy money

the beginners want the impossible....the pot of gold at end of the rainbow

easy money cannot be big because a trade that looks easy.... is easy.... but who ever got huge money for doing easy things?.

take the low reward it is worth it because you did not have to work for it....it was ....well easy !!!!!!!!!!!!

high probability trades give low reward.

this the novice trader does not understand.....they see easy money and think they will get millions........

 

[padutrader]

Markets have 4 states, trending, ranging and 2 others.

You have to figure out which state the market is in, and trade only if your strategy can make money in that state.

you are a profitable trader.

well said trading made simple

yes trading needs focus

if you know what state the market is in........then it is simple....the state of market dictates the strategy

trends buy and hold ....ranging buy low sell high.

i just taught you how to trade in one line...i do not know why so many books are written on trading

i hate to buy and hold.....so i do not do trends unless it is is an absolute bomb of a trend and then i usually scalp out......i want easy money ..not big money

 

[padutrader]

the state of market dictates the strategy

so i am wondering what back testing...searching for strategies.... secret strategies.......edges......have to do with anything

 

[padutrader]

i too make a lot of money because i understood one part of the market but lose it because i do not understand the whole. this is almost every traders dilemma.......that is why you have trend traders and range traders......but what happens when the market is in a transition phase in between the two. smart profitable traders know when to stay out when it does not suit their method..........but the really master trader is one who understand the whole......there are not many....and most do not make the effort to understand the market or even think it is not necessary to.. they think risk management protects them and it does protect them from losses BUT THE IRONY IS IT PROTECTS THEM FROM PROFITS TOO.....because a stop is triggered only when the trader does not understand that he should reverse and when he does not understand that he is NOW on the wrong side of the market

 

[padutrader]

spotting a trend is easy if you know how the different parts of a market form, or come together, as a whole.
if you know a part of the whole then you can still make a lot of money trading that part you know well.
i made good money when the market was in a range but lost it when the market started transitioning into a trend........because i did not understand this transition. this thread was obviously started because of the same lack of understanding

this happened for almost 13 years

i had a lot of knowledge about all different parts but could not see the whole........

it took a lot of time but now i do

 

[padutrader]

the main problem with trading is that your knowledge is of little benefit unless enough traders know it too

 

[murray t turtle]

the main problem with trading is that your knowledge is of little benefit unless enough traders know it too

%%
That can be a big problem if you have too sell by 3rd Friday;
not a problem for investors.And really spotting a trend is not that hard/regardless of volume of traders.[I have paid a bigger bid/ ask spread for lower volume/but thats life+ business...……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..]]]]]]]