Another article on another bull how the economy is going to race forward toward 4% GDP, says home prices are at a bottom and a "V" shaped recovery is on the way.
I'm laughing at this article and thinking how the tide has turned completely in the other direction in only 2 short months, in march every bank was getting nationalized and martial law was days from taking place and now we have bulls jumping up and down as if were headed back to an economy thats going to provide real growth. Lets get real people, nothing has changed over the last 2 months, in fact things have gotten worse, of course you wont see it because of the 30% run up in stocks, how can it be any worse, as long as the market charges ahead the economy is in great shape. Remember this is a bear market rally and nothing else.
Bull Predicts
Robert Lenzner, 05.07.09, 05:00 PM EDT
Lakshman Acuthan says it's a bull market in stocks; home prices are at bottom and the economy will grow by 4% at year end.
Pay attention. This is a major turn of events.
The stock market is in a cyclical bull market, not a rally in a bear market. Stock prices and economic activity will rise in a "V" shape, not in a U-shaped, or more ominously L-shaped, fashion as many experts have predicted, and some of us have feared. This trend should continue until at least the end of this year.
Housing prices have hit bottom--and the economy is in the midst of shifting dramatically from a 6% annualized loss in GDP to a 4% gain by the end of 2009. That is a 10% turnaround--with a value of $1.4 trillion more economic activity. Not even the Obama administration is predicting 4% growth by year end. If correct, it could put a dent in the expected budget deficit next year.
Predicting this is Lakshman Acuthan, a highly prominent forecaster at the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI), a consulting company whose research is used by many corporate chieftains and investment managers.
"The harder you throw a ball at the ground, the higher it bounces," says Acuthan in an exclusive interview with Forbes. "You can use this dynamic to predict the economy. There's an 80% correlation between the depth of the recession and the strength of the recovery," says Acuthan, who predicts that the U.S. economy will be growing at a 4% annualized rate by the end of this year.
Acuthan says growth rates bottomed in November and have been less negative since December. The ECRI's leading indicator index and its coincidental index have been signaling an easing of the recession for a sufficient number of weeks to make this major call.
Acuthan has tended to be more positive as his economic indicators signaled an easing of the recession last December.
"The pessimists were too influenced by credit markets freezing, by bank balance sheets and by the precipitous fall in home prices," he maintains. "You don't have to fix these problems before you can have a recovery."
I'm laughing at this article and thinking how the tide has turned completely in the other direction in only 2 short months, in march every bank was getting nationalized and martial law was days from taking place and now we have bulls jumping up and down as if were headed back to an economy thats going to provide real growth. Lets get real people, nothing has changed over the last 2 months, in fact things have gotten worse, of course you wont see it because of the 30% run up in stocks, how can it be any worse, as long as the market charges ahead the economy is in great shape. Remember this is a bear market rally and nothing else.
Bull Predicts
Robert Lenzner, 05.07.09, 05:00 PM EDT
Lakshman Acuthan says it's a bull market in stocks; home prices are at bottom and the economy will grow by 4% at year end.
Pay attention. This is a major turn of events.
The stock market is in a cyclical bull market, not a rally in a bear market. Stock prices and economic activity will rise in a "V" shape, not in a U-shaped, or more ominously L-shaped, fashion as many experts have predicted, and some of us have feared. This trend should continue until at least the end of this year.
Housing prices have hit bottom--and the economy is in the midst of shifting dramatically from a 6% annualized loss in GDP to a 4% gain by the end of 2009. That is a 10% turnaround--with a value of $1.4 trillion more economic activity. Not even the Obama administration is predicting 4% growth by year end. If correct, it could put a dent in the expected budget deficit next year.
Predicting this is Lakshman Acuthan, a highly prominent forecaster at the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI), a consulting company whose research is used by many corporate chieftains and investment managers.
"The harder you throw a ball at the ground, the higher it bounces," says Acuthan in an exclusive interview with Forbes. "You can use this dynamic to predict the economy. There's an 80% correlation between the depth of the recession and the strength of the recovery," says Acuthan, who predicts that the U.S. economy will be growing at a 4% annualized rate by the end of this year.
Acuthan says growth rates bottomed in November and have been less negative since December. The ECRI's leading indicator index and its coincidental index have been signaling an easing of the recession for a sufficient number of weeks to make this major call.
Acuthan has tended to be more positive as his economic indicators signaled an easing of the recession last December.
"The pessimists were too influenced by credit markets freezing, by bank balance sheets and by the precipitous fall in home prices," he maintains. "You don't have to fix these problems before you can have a recovery."
