Lack of volatility in ES getting brutal

[Handle123]

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Maybe right, H123; most likely slop+ chop will not last for year$.....OCT can be a real bear killer. NOt a prediction; + congrats on your new system.Beside$ Modern Trader magazine noted average MAR, S& P gain is 20%[LOL + most likely meant 2.o %]. Wisdom is profitable to direct

I require low volatility as am scalping "noise", I use what I define as trend but also do counter-trend which means my price or nada. I recall seeing charts in 1930s after the crash, and markets often went in sideways for long time. But, if one doesn't learn to adapt to different market action, one can go poor waiting for what some require and too often lose trying other things instead of back testing unhappy data to develop methods, lose when they don't have to do so. Low volatility takes work but once learned, then you get better ad be able to trade more than less.

I finally developed a system that has potential to make longer profits and still be able to take profit of a point to pay for fees and loses, only took me 32 years to do this, LOL I just detest having losing percentages too high, reason it taken me so long. But I know when volatility gets too low, system will not have signals which is good for me too as well.

 

[ADONAI1ST]

I wish I knew what the hell yall were talking about. Have a gut feeling this is a good learner. I understand the scalp part, but the low volatility is something I'm trying to figure out. Does this type of market mean when you buy there is not that many sellers or the price isn't moving very much or both? How do you know this is going on?

 

[W.J. Feathermaker III]

Look at the YM, GC or heck look at the ES overnight session during EU opening hours. There is more tradeable movement than during RTH with all the back and forth.

I agree with this although it has decreased noticeably since last year...There is almost always a trade between 2-3am ET and it will usually follow a particular pattern towards the US RTH opening. Recently, it's been a steady decline towards the open, but the pattern can obviously flip frequently.

 

[W.J. Feathermaker III]

GC can certainly accommodate up to 10 without an issue also...? So why the hang-up with ES from so many people? Drives me batty.

In the old days it was a favorite of traders who hated trends. The irony is that it is always trending these days. That's not to say that 10-15-20 years ago it was devoid of a lot of trending activity, but it was more of a "two way market" with a lot of ebbing and flowing. Nowadays, minimal volatility and a lot of "ramp and camp" behavior.

 

[Handle123]

In the old days it was a favorite of traders who hated trends. The irony is that it is always trending these days. That's not to say that 10-15-20 years ago it was devoid of a lot of trending activity, but it was more of a "two way market" with a lot of ebbing and flowing. Nowadays, minimal volatility and a lot of "ramp and camp" behavior.

You are so right, until recently, almost all my intraday trading was scalping and faster market conditions, trend, would make consistent losses for me, but like anything you watch long time, you either develop a sense, which is not me, or develop indicator that shows me price in chop before most others who seeking trend. For me, there is much more low volatility overall chop than fast trend, after 2 hours price can be trending up slowly all day and since I scalp more with trend, can make my buck, but if price going fast, have to stay out for scalping and flip to other method that does better for longer profit. Yea, back in the 80s, huge day was 4 points, which was $2,000 range.

 

[i960]

ES back in 2015 when tons of other stuff was going on:

 

[speedo]

Tears of nostalgia..

 

[Mtrader]

The problem is no the market. The problem is that 99% of all traders use static systems. Systems should be dynamical, adapting to the market.

Bad drivers don't use the gearbox depending on the speed or the road they drive on, they just put it in highest gear and drive like that, no matter the speed or circumstances.
Good drivers start in first gear and change gears depending on the situation. They drive much more comfortable and never have to get angry that it is difficult to start driving in fifth or sixth gear. They use the adapted, first, gear to start driving.

A lot of traders do the same: trade 1 (simple) system in all markets and all circumstances. and then they wonder why they don't make money.
Different marketbehavior requires different solutions.

 

[EsKiller]

I still do not understand the appeal of the ES as opposed to other instruments. Its range is often so so terrible, yet so many folks insist on trading it to the exclusion of everything else out there. And there is a LOT of "everything else out there" to trade.

Why is it so popular?

The reason why I choose the ES over other instruments is because due to the volume, many of the price structures will repeat over time with similar behavior. I'm not talking about price action, Im talking about price structures.....past price history whose structures provide a high level of certainty where we will get a 'test'. Substitute pattern for structure if you want...its similar. Even if said test is only 2 ticks before blowing through the level, to me I find value with this instruments behavior. Said 'structures' don't test out as well with instruments of lower volume or those instruments that are more speculative in nature rather than heding-based.

If I know with 90% certainty that price is going to halt at a specific price structure for a tick or two, can you find value in this ? Some traders can, some can't. For me, the answer is yes even though Im looking for much more than a tick. Even still, Im humble enough to realize that 1 tick on a 20 lot is not bad whatsoever

 

[algofy]

Agree with you brother, I usually bang out 80 ticks on average.

You bang out 20 ES points on average when it's more volatile?? That's pretty healthy.