Kyle Bass Warns "All Hell Is About To Break Loose" In China

[beerntrading]

I think the critical difference is that with a mortgage, principal gets paid down every month. With government, the best you can hope for is a balanced budget in the best of times, and of course, more deficits most other years. Its kind of like those mortgages where you only pay the interest and not the principal.

You hit at the crux of the issue here...and I wish I'd said this with the post you quoted.

People age, populations don't. Mort-gage is literally "death paper" (read: contract or agreement). There's profound implications for that when the population in aggregate is continuously in their earning prime.

There's of course a very instructive examples of an aging population (Japan), but the manifest differences between there and the US makes our debt burden sustainable. IMHO.

 

[Gotcha]

makes our debt burden sustainable. IMHO.

I would actually argue against this. Now I wouldn't bet that it will blow up tomorrow or next year, but I do not for one second believe that it is the type of debt that will ever be paid back in the traditional sense for individuals. The worst part about the debt is that its a debt that people have to "supposedly" pay back who didn't get the benefit from whatever that money was spent for.

But in terms of sustainability, this can only be if the interest rates are really low, but this does nothing to actually reduce the debt. Its hard enough for the government to agree on a budget to fund everything they want to fund, never mind actually letting some of the revenue go towards paying down the principal.

It will never be paid back, only rolled over, until some major crisis, hopefully years down the road, where some event causes the whole issue to go away so that civilization can start again, just like all the other great civilizations from the past who went bust. All that matters is remaining solvent, and as long as you're a big enough player, like the US, nobody is going to question your credit worthiness.

 

[beerntrading]

Now I wouldn't bet that it will blow up tomorrow or next year, but I do not for one second believe that it is the type of debt that will ever be paid back in the traditional sense for individuals.

My bold. You're comparing apples and oranges (instead of Apple and national debt...lol)

People age, populations don't.

 

[Gotcha]

You're comparing apples and oranges

So you're saying this is a debt that never has to be paid back? Because this certainly is I'm sure what the officials think as well.

Edit: This to me would be the only way to claim that its apples to oranges. Of course there are lots of differences between consumer debt and government debt, but if the idea is that it eventually has to be paid back, then its a fair comparison. Of course maybe its a well guarded secret that government debt never has to be paid back, in which case, fine, its comparing apples to oranges, but surely this statement should have some pretty bad implications.

 

[Humpy]

The national debt is like the trader's martingale system. Can look good for a while until interest rates go up a lot and then it's bankruptcy time.
I can see Trump vastly increasing spending as he says he will and if times get tough reneging on the debt. If that happens other countries will nationalise US assets in their reach.
Could flog off California I suppose. lol.

 

[beerntrading]

So you're saying this is a debt that never has to be paid back? Because this certainly is I'm sure what the officials think as well.

Edit: This to me would be the only way to claim that its apples to oranges. Of course there are lots of differences between consumer debt and government debt, but if the idea is that it eventually has to be paid back, then its a fair comparison. Of course maybe its a well guarded secret that government debt never has to be paid back, in which case, fine, its comparing apples to oranges, but surely this statement should have some pretty bad implications.

That was exactly my point. And what's the bad implication of that?

 

[Gotcha]

That was exactly my point. And what's the bad implication of that?

What's bad about debt never getting paid back? Well, if the US maintains being a super power, then nobody is gonna question it much I'm sure. But this won't last forever, and the minute that confidence in the system is tested, it can all go down hill very quickly.

 

[beerntrading]

What's bad about debt never getting paid back? Well, if the US maintains being a super power, then nobody is gonna question it much I'm sure. But this won't last forever, and the minute that confidence in the system is tested, it can all go down hill very quickly.

...like...if China had a real estate crash, called in it's US debt holdings and essentially remove 7% of the market's capital from the US debt markets and sent interest rates skyward?

And poof, just like that we're back on topic in the thread.

All debt carries risk, but the risk of an individual turning 70 and still having a mortgage is much different than government debt risk.

 

[Gotcha]

...like...if China had a real estate crash, called in it's US debt holdings and essentially remove 20% of the market's capital from the US debt markets and sent interest rates skyward?

And poof, just like that we're back on topic in the thread.

All debt carries risk, but the risk of an individual turning 70 and still having a mortgage is much different than government debt risk.

I'm no expert on US debt or the treasuries they own, but I imagine they would have to sell them into the open market to get access to funds, and not exactly call the debt in. Once too much floods the market, then certainly this would be quite destabilizing.

Of course the individual is much more likely to default on a loan, and governments would never default in the traditional sense since they can always print money, but what I remember learning about all of this, is that its all about trust and confidence. You don't need a default in order to have major problems, you just need to lose faith in the value of whatever you invested in. This can come in many forms I'm sure and typically, when you're told to have faith that everything will be ok, this is exactly when problems accelerate.

Think Cypress, and the run on the banks, that sort of thing. Imagine another repeat of 2008/09. Will the public really stand for another bail out of the financial system if it ever comes to this? I can certainly envision an event like this which crushes the markets, sends interest rates soaring, etc. Capital fleeing the US, although I'm not sure into what, can easily happen and cause major problems, even if the US doesn't default on any debt obligations.

 

[SteveM]

I can certainly envision an event like this which crushes the markets, sends interest rates soaring, etc. Capital fleeing the US, although I'm not sure into what, can easily happen and cause major problems, even if the US doesn't default on any debt obligations.

For this scenario to play out, you'd need the world to suddenly start believing that the USA is no longer the biggest kid in the neighborhood who runs all of the games on the block.

Lots of things would need to happen for USA to get there - weaker military presence globally, weaker alliances, US dollar no longer the reserve currency, stronger relationships between European and Asian financial centers/companies, massive civil unrest in the United States.

But as far fetched as it seems, there was once a time where the UK ran the world to the same degree that the US does today, and that certainly is no longer the case, so anything can happen.