United States has +328 million citizens (illegals not counted).
1/3 of its population does not know that they can become a victim of Covid-19 and a large percentage of them are not the elderly.
Currently, about
+326,000 Covid-19 deaths...now averaging about +1k to +2k Covid-19 deaths per day...should continue that way for 2 -3 weeks after the Christmas Holidays...
Rising more quickly due to several million travelers over the Christmas holidays until about 30% are vaccinated before the deaths begin to
slow its deaths pace until 60% vaccinated are reached assuming the anti-vaxxers do
not interrupt the 60% vaccinated process.
You need
Vaccinated > 60% of the population to reach "vaccinated herd immunity" because "natural herd immunity" is a failure unless you're a willing idiot to wipe out 1/3 of the United States population that most likely will include yourself.
Self-preservation will kick in...you'll most likely hide inside your house while 1/3 of the population are being wiped out from natural herd immunity unless you're a scientist and can control your
viral load to Covid-19...increasing your chance for survival.
United States
should reach vaccinated herd immunity by end the summer of 2021 or the fall if there's enough vaccine.
Below are the Covid-19 Forecasts by the experts...they've been accurate so far since after the first month of the Pandemic.
- Observed and forecasted new and total reported COVID-19 deaths as of December 21, 2020.
Interpretation of Forecasts of New and Total Deaths
- This week, CDC received forecasts of COVID-19 deaths over the next 4 weeks from 36 modeling groups that were included in the ensemble forecasts. Of the 36 groups, 33 provided forecasts for both new and total deaths, two groups forecasted total deaths only, and one forecasted new death only.
- This week’s national ensemble forecast predicts that the number of newly reported COVID-19 deaths will likely increase over the next 4 weeks, with 16,400 to 27,600 new deaths likely to be reported in the week ending January 16, 2021. The national ensemble predicts that a total of 378,000 to 419,000 COVID-19 deaths will be reported by this date.
- The state- and territory-level ensemble forecasts predict that over the next 4 weeks, the number of newly reported deaths per week will likely increase in 16 jurisdictions and decrease in 7 jurisdictions, which are indicated in the forecast plots below. Trends in numbers of future reported deaths are uncertain or predicted to remain stable in the other states and territories.
- The top row of the figure shows the number of new COVID-19 deaths reported in the United States each week from October 17 through December 19 and forecasted new deaths over the next 4 weeks, through January 16.
- The bottom row of the figure shows the number of total COVID-19 deaths in the United States each week from October 17 through December 19 and the forecasted number of total COVID-19 deaths over the next 4 weeks, through January 16.
- Models make various assumptions about the levels of social distancing and other interventions, which may not reflect recent changes in behavior.
Merry Christmas...keep it to your own household...stay safe to increase your chance or increase the chance of a loved one being here for next year's Merry Christmas.
wrbtrader
