Linear charts of new cases is of no use in realizing the peak of an epidemic. The chart will continue to rise until there are zero new case. Zero new cases is not the peak.
No, but the slope will show it. And right now it does not.
Linear charts of new cases is of no use in realizing the peak of an epidemic. The chart will continue to rise until there are zero new case. Zero new cases is not the peak.
Slope of new cases and total cases in a linear chart holds no relationship to the peak. In order to see a peak on a chart, the slope has to then trend down, which it will never do on a total cases chart. It will only go up until it is flat. That is not the peak. In addition a linear chart of new cases will not show a peak until the actual number of new cases drops. The peak happens well before the number of new cases each day drops in absolute number.
Now, you are beginning to get it.
from BBC
Coronavirus: Deaths rise sharply in Spain while infection rate stabilises
Spain has seen a sharp rise in the number of deaths caused by coronavirus but the rate of new infections is stabilising, officials say.
- 47 minutes ago
Confirmed cases of Covid-19, the disease caused by the virus, rose to 64,059, a 14% increase compared with 18% a day earlier and 20% on Wednesday.
In 24 hours, 769 people died, a daily record, taking the total to 4,858.
Deaths among vulnerable people seem to be mounting, with residents at elderly nursing homes particularly affected.
Spain, Europe's second-worst-hit country after Italy, has extended the state of emergency until at least 12 April, with stringent restrictions on people's movement in place and most shops and businesses closed.
The latest figures raised hopes that the measures were beginning to take effect, with health emergency chief Fernando Simón saying they showed a "clear stabilisation". He added: "It seems that we're approaching the long-awaited peak".
The army has been deployed to deep clean hospitals and other facilities as well as some 900 nursing homes, where at least 1,517 deaths have reportedly been recorded.
Meanwhile, the health ministry said some 9,000 rapid diagnostic tests imported from China through a Spanish company had proved defective. It said the kits had European approval and their use had been suspended.