Quote from nonlinear5:
That's a good observation. However, to use this analogy, your model should be a sand of pile that can cause a bidirectional avalanche. Think of a pile of sand in a gravitational field which can change the polarity. With this model, another grain of sand can cause the avalanche in either direction, depending on the field orientation. In fact, one can argue that this is exactly what we have been observing in the last 4 years, with the S&P 500 going from the low of 666 to all time highs, exceeding them, and reaching 1687 recently.
This bull market may as well continue for another six months. What are you going to do with your increasingly martingaled position? You know how all martingale-based trading strategies end up, don't you?