Kudos to MMs

Quote from nitro in the Psychology.. Has anyone thought about how much you SHOULD make thread:

06-10-13 02:49 PM

I just look at what my bots make, then I look at what fraction of the liquidity I participate in. Then it is simple arithmetic.

There are only three variables in trading success imo:

1) A consistantly profitable system.
2) The liquidity to execute that system.
3) The confidence to hit hard when the odds are in your favor. The discipline to scale back when things seem wrong.

Theorem: The technological know-how to automate 1. This is important to me since my psychology would not allow me to sit in front of a computer vegitating.

In fact, if you start your search with these three things as axiomatic, you can work your way backwards to a profitable system that fits your psychology. Really, since most people have never seen a profitable system, the hardest part is #3.

I can tell you that even though I have 1, 2, and 3, it is amazing how much of my skill as a programmer I needed in order to make it work. Worse, I needed knowledge of the mathematical sciences to make it work (if I had access to institutional order flow - this affects 2 above, this is less true). Even now, I still struggle to improve it, without making it worse. It is frightening to me when I see people aimlessly trying to succeed trading as a substitute for steady income. Once you have walked down this path, you realize just how hard it is. The greatest chance of success from trading is to not need the income from it, even if you have 1,2, 3 above!

Based on this criteria, I see no reason why I shouldn't be making $500,000 year from just trading, with an relatively painless extrapolation to $20M a year. But it is pointless to talk about it until I have walked THAT path.
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Hmm.... quite interesting.... Clearly I have missed something between this thread and the one mentioned in the post above...
 
Quote from arbs-r-us:

Hmm.... quite interesting.... Clearly I have missed something between this thread and the one mentioned in the post above...
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I believe he'd pass a polygraph regardless. Nitro is the only type of phony with the ability to get past me undetected, because if he whole-heartedly believes what he's saying, is it really lying?

He's just the world's most optimistic man, actually believing he 'has' things he never had. I'd take delusional optimism over soul-sucking pessimism any day of the week, wouldn't you?
 
Quote from Rearden Metal:

I believe he'd pass a polygraph regardless. Nitro is the only type of phony with the ability to get past me undetected, because if he whole-heartedly believes what he's saying, is it really lying?

He's just the world's most optimistic man, actually believing he 'has' things he never had. I'd take delusional optimism over soul-sucking pessimism any day of the week, wouldn't you?
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Party on Garth!!!
 
speculation has nothing to do with trading

over the long term, the market will decide if 1600 holds or not

no one knows what the market will do .

the only thing you know is ... is there an up trend or a down trend and over what time frame.

Quote from nitro:
Odds of 1600 holding are nearly zero. I have no idea when it breaks, but break it will. Then it will go to 1572 with a possible stop at 1592.
Longer term, what is stopping 1480?
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Quote from nitro:

World Bank cuts growth forecasts

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2013/jun/13/nikkei-stock-markets-world-bank-growth-forecast

Hard to gauge, but I estimate the market has priced in only 50% to 75% of this news. I estimate the other 25% to 50% or so is worth between 5% and 8% lower for SPX from today's close of 1626.

5% would put it at support 1542.
8% would put it very close to my target of 1480 and near strong support at 1472.
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I thought your "fair value" of S&P 500 was about 900.
 
September 12, 2011 :

Quote from nitro:

Calibrated FV, 1070.12. FV 1195.12. Mid 1132.62.

Briefly considered taking some profits by buying ES 1127 ish pre-market, but decided against it. I don't see what can stop 1100 or lower. It may go higher first, but western market fates are sealed imo.
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Note the similarity to Nitro's current posts.
 
FOMC will be another non-event. They will announce the same pace of bond purchase and the same interest rates. They may say inflation signs are appearing but remains well below the threat of 2.2. Unemployment at 7.6 instead of 6.5 and this FOMC is not even worth paying attention to.

Stocks will probably ring [up and down] for about half and hour and end higher, towards their ultimate resting stop of 1672 sometime soon [EOM?].
 
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