Cutten, while you totally just gave me an 'Oh shit! He could be right' moment, the right question to ask next would probably be: "Was the 2007 new highs and then plummet pattern typical, or was it an anomaly from an historical perspective"?
Kudos to MMs
- Thread starter nitro
- Start date
Oh I don't expect a huge bear market this time. But I do think a quick swoon (5%, maybe 7-10% even) is on the cards. Maybe hit 1600 then down to low 1500s, for example. It's a purely technical observation - low vol, long steady bull trend, the inevitable "S&P reaches new all-time high" headlines...if I had been smart enough to be heavily long on the way up the last few months, I would definitely be booking some profits.
Let's put it this way - even if we are in the middle of a bull market to 2000 S&P, there would typically be some 5-10% corrections en route. The first new closing high above the 2000 and 2007 highs would surely be a more likely place & time than most to see such a pullback? At least that's how I see it.
You misunderstood me- I wasn't expecting a massive drop like from the '07 peak either. I'm actually expecting pretty much the same thing as you are- 10% down or a bit less.... but very soon. I just think the $VIX being where it is, plus the whole seasonal May thing... well, you know.
While I'm already giving this shit away for no good reason, for the first time in over a decade I'm also no longer long-term bullish on gold. Quite the opposite now, actually.
With the way I'm able to nail call after call here, you'd think some high-level Chicago area trading group would recognize my value and scoop me right up... but alas, I still work solo and still have my eyes wide open looking for a local, uber-successful trading group to join. Yeah, I do come with some mad-genius type baggage, but I still think I'm a great catch regardless. Is anyone relevant reading this? Anyone? Bueller?
(Apologies for the tasteless bragging content above. It was just difficult finding a better way to say any of that.)
(Apologies for the tasteless bragging content above. It was just difficult finding a better way to say any of that.)
Out SPX 1541 +31. [Note that SPX is not open so this is only an estimate of where it would be were it open. SPX is trading about 4 ES handles higher than ES at this time. All contracts are traded using the front month ES, but I post entries using SPX so I don't have to worry about rolls.]
The other short from 1541 has a target of 1520, and now a stop loss on it is moved to 1565.