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Yes, so why is 1572 too high for you to bet? I am curious to know what you think. Is that number too much too fast for Friday this week end?
Kudos to MMs
- Thread starter nitro
- Start date
Yes, so why is 1572 too high for you to bet? I am curious to know what you think. Is that number too much too fast for Friday this week end?
Kind of, maybe too high- Didn't even pause to think about it.
I didn't come here looking to place bets. I was really just calling out Nitro for saying shit here he doesn't even truly believe himself. I'd never do something like that, would you?
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Maybe his model show the chance is high for SPX at 1520? I really do not know why nitro see that.
I know from reading the ET you have a lot of trading experience, so I just want to read your opinion of the SPX.
Rearden, I am not trader really, I just like to watch some traders working.
Well, it might be helpful for you to know that my opinion is still the same thing it was when I posted it right here on March 5th.
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Yes ok. You are bullish and buy when price is go down. Do you buy on this uptrend when the price go down, then sell when the price go again up? Or do you hold all the dips you buy because you see long term uptrend?
The first one.
Except for that I like to keep at least a tiny (practically symbolic) open position long at all times, week after week, so that I'm never fully completely flat or disengaged from the uptrend. Basically I'm always long, but also always playing around with the position size. It will almost certainly continue through April, unless I suddenly find a reason to stop doing this (not likely).
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Aaah ok, thank you! You take some profits always.
FWIW the all-time high on the S&P is fairly close. It would be incredible to me if this were not breached, triggering the huge number of stops and uncle points (not to mention Bloomberg headlines) that are dying to get set off above this level. I can just imagine the collective gnashing of teeth of all the permabears, followed by resigned throwing in of towels.
If you want to get short, or you want to book profits, is a new all-time high not THE most obvious time to do so? And, if wrong, it will become obvious fairly quickly, at a minimal loss. There are only really 3 scenarios IMO - either the market has a quick 5-10% swoon (or worse) shortly after hitting 1580-1620, or it continues to rally to 1625+, in which case the short sale is wrong and you can exit (or let your puts expire - puts are clearly the better way to play this) for a small loss.
If you want to get short, or you want to book profits, is a new all-time high not THE most obvious time to do so? And, if wrong, it will become obvious fairly quickly, at a minimal loss. There are only really 3 scenarios IMO - either the market has a quick 5-10% swoon (or worse) shortly after hitting 1580-1620, or it continues to rally to 1625+, in which case the short sale is wrong and you can exit (or let your puts expire - puts are clearly the better way to play this) for a small loss.