Kudos to MMs

Quote from kinggyppo:

I can't understand the discounting mechanism, obviously something in the model is discounting a lower future value. I mean is fair value what the mkt should be based on todays price or what it should trade at in some future point?
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FV = "Fair Value" Market price of SPX if markets were left to their own devices without trillions of dollars being thrown at them to artificially hold them up. Extremely steady, occasional big moves.

OFV = "Fair Value" Market price of SPX counting the trillions of dollars being thrown at them, but with time lag. Very volatile.

POFVF = Predicted "Fair Value" price of OFV some time in the future based on information now. This is the most agile of all. Very volatile.

CFV = Calibrated FV, the "Fair Value" of SPX if you think we go into recession. Extremely steady, occasional big moves.
 
Quote from nitro:

The numbers I quoted are accurate, FWIW.
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The numbers you posted were accurate but incomplete and out of context. The numbers I posted are accurate as well - they were exact quotes of yours taken verbatim.

The three opening trades I listed were the positions you took with the FV model. Around mid-November you decided suddenly to do some rapid trading using the OFV model but rather than treating that short-term trading separately you simply realized the losses two of the longer-term FV positions and ended up back with three units short at much higher basis (having banked the losses).

For one of the trades you said as much:
Quote from nitro 11-01-11 10:44 AM:
OFV went above SPX almost right out of the open. Out unit 3 at 1222.
Even though this is unit three against unit three, I have to mark-to-market the way my statements do. So even though systemically this is paring the exit at 1221 against the entry at 1220 or -2, in the real world it is matched against the entry at 1142.

So, in my mind, I see it as -2, but in the real world that is -80.
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As far as I can tell you never posted the trade (and corresponding loss) when you closed out the second FV short 1172 position again due to short-term OFV trading. That also would have had heavy losses (since the market was well north of 1200)

Making claims like "Total on three trades +172 handles" without disclosing the realized losses you took along the way on this same sequence is disingenuous.

Since you stopped posting the OFV trades there is no way for me to know what the real P/L was from 10-05-11 to 11-28-11 but for you to give the impression that trading during that period produced a big gain is misleading, just looking at the FV trades you clearly took a loss of ~25 handles.
 
Quote from nitro:

SIFs (ES) down 7 on this news after hours:

http://www.cnbc.com/id/45482560

That is serious, but the market has an upward bias (just look at POFVF) and I doubt it implodes the way it would had this news come out at some other time (with POFVF neutral or below SPX) .

Therefore, I say, short if you must, imo just be nimble.
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Well, with all these flames on the SPOOZ +31 handles, I'm breaking out the aged filet mignon. Going to enjoy some tasty lunch watching the shorts in agony on their massive blowout.
 
Note that POFVF is keeping us from shorting, and is screaming for going long. As the system currently stands, I cannot go long given the way the FVs are aligned, but I have known it is correct ever since I go the POFVF theory.

When the short comes, it will be super juicy. I can't really tell when as POFVF can't see too far, but I fully expect that it will collapse sometime early next year. At that point, we look at OFV to go below SPX (I might anticipate and use POFVF for the actual entry - we'll see). However, SPX may reach 1300+ ish before then!
 
Quote from nitro:

Note that POFVF is keeping us from shorting, and is screaming for going long. As the system currently stands, I cannot go long given the way the FVs are aligned, but I have known it is correct ever since I go the POFVF theory.

When the short comes, it will be super juicy. I can't really tell when as POFVF can't see too far, but I fully expect that it will collapse sometime early next year. At that point, we look at OFV to go below SPX (I might anticipate and use POFVF for the actual entry - we'll see). However, SPX may reach 1300+ ish before then!
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"When the short comes????" YOU ARE SHORT, UNLESS WE ARE ALL READING THIS BASSACKWARDS?

"You have known it is correct" that POFVFXYABANCNFEV is indicating a long position yet you are short????

"Going to 1300 but since I'm not really a trader but a ?????" I'll stay short????
 
Quote from stock777:

So you gave 10-1 odds and were wrong
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777, he's a shill for the other side of the market. Posing as the ultimate intellectual and making a case for exactly the OPPOSITE of the trades they are making. Mental espionage, 101.
 
Quote from arbs-r-us:

Well, with all these flames on the SPOOZ +31 handles, I'm breaking out the aged filet mignon. Going to enjoy some tasty lunch watching the shorts in agony on their massive blowout.
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Between the nitro & tyler followers, it was a tasty day!
 
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