Kudos to MMs

stock777 · Oct 27, 2011

even KY jelly not enough for the shorts here

arbs-r-us · Oct 27, 2011

Quote from nitro:

SPX, 1276.87. FV, 1179.95. OFV, 1192.36.

Hmm.... SPX 1292.14 DAMN!!! 100 HANDLES OF EDGE STILL!!! THAT'S __WITH__ THE 70 HANDLE BOOST IN OFV THIS MORNING!!!! HOLY FLYING BAT DUNG BATMAN!!!

With that said, I'm exiting my 220 handle winner at the close as the 3x guys have some MASSIVE buyin to do!!!

nitro · Oct 27, 2011

SPX, 1284.59. FV, 1207.18. OFV, 1225.47.

GTS · Oct 27, 2011

Quote from nitro:

10-26-11 10:24 AM SPX, 1232.05. FV, 1107.08. OFV, 1125.32.
10-27-11 12:59 PM SPX, 1276.87. FV, 1179.95. OFV, 1192.36.
10-27-11 05:17 PM SPX, 1284.59. FV, 1207.18. OFV, 1225.47.

It appears your model is converging to the market rather than predicting it.

FV is now much higher than your position basis. At what point do you exit?

Maverick74 · Oct 27, 2011

Quote from GTS:

It appears your model is converging to the market rather than predicting it.

FV is now much higher than your position basis. At what point do you exit?

Nitro is calling for a crash on Monday of epic proportions that will bring him back into the black on this position.

I've asked him several times on this thread how he stops himself out of losing positions and he never answers. At that point I realized this was not going to be a serious thread.

stock777 · Oct 27, 2011

Lucrum · Oct 27, 2011

Quote from Maverick74:

Nitro is calling for a crash on Monday of epic proportions that will bring him back into the black on this position.

I've asked him several times on this thread how he stops himself out of losing positions and he never answers. At that point I realized this was not going to be a serious thread.

C'mon Nitro, you're better than that.

nitro · Oct 28, 2011

SPX, 1277.68. FV, 1188.57. OFV, 1201.04.

nitro · Oct 31, 2011

SPX, 1266.83. FV, 1196.58. OFV, 1231.96.

There are huge divergences going on, and it is all very confusing. Large moves higher in FV and OFV, delayed by a few days to SPX. This is the worse that could happen, convergence to SPX, opposite a position. At this point, if SPX was at 1196 converging to FV, I would have to take a loss on the three units. Hard to believe I am saying that when the position was put on, it had (well over) a 100 handles of (theoretical) edge!

Some consolation that it took a monthly move not seen in 45 years.

nitro · Oct 31, 2011

Quote from nitro:

...There are huge divergences going on, and it is all very confusing. Large moves higher in FV and OFV, delayed by a few days to SPX. This is the worse that could happen, convergence to SPX, opposite a position. At this point, if SPX was at 1196 converging to FV, I would have to take a loss on the three units. Hard to believe I am saying that when the position was put on, it had (well over) a 100 handles of (theoretical) edge!

Some consolation that it took a monthly move not seen in 45 years.

I am convinced as to the viability of the FV model. What I am realizing is that I don't have complete flows. The dimensionality of markets is amazing to a model like FV, but of course to a bank that can see the flow and can tell if the counter party is smart or not, it is trivial.

That is why you see that the best traders follow price when it is grounded in flow. Unfortunately, it is extremely difficult to situate yourself in between that flow so as to be able to tell the real deal from fakes. Being in pits used to get you this flow, now it is the privy of the biggest (electronic) players that are in the middle of it.

I continue to plow forward, seeking more and more information that I can incorporate into the model...