Kudos to MMs

ES red premarket. It will be bought. Take quick profits if short (1172 if not slightly higher will be bought imo), and then pick your entries short higher. Build a cushion so that when the big short comes (if it comes), you can't be shaken from the position.
 
Quote from nitro:

Don't short 1200. It is the disciplined entry, but 1220 seems unstoppable.
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You're holding short positions from 1140 & 1172 but are convinced the market is going to 1220?

I guess if the market goes down you will be right and if the market goes up you will also be right.

Quote from nitro 10-07-11 09:07 AM:
This rally will continue for probably another few days, maybe until early next week, but the gains will be meager, perhaps reaching 1200. I would be genuinely surprised to see a 1220 print.
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Quote from GTS:

You're holding short positions from 1140 & 1172 but are convinced the market is going to 1220?

I guess if the market goes down you will be right and if the market goes up you will also be right.
More...
Only amateurs are interested in being "right". Professionals understand that it is a war and not a battle - they know what pieces to sacrifice to gain advantage. That markets are averaging mechanisms and our results are therefore averaged as well. All of this is well within the maintainability of risk of those averages. In a nine inning game, a batter gets an average of four at bats. Maintaining discipline on each step to the plate is imperative, no matter how many times you have struck out.

Every tick the market goes up I lose money. The greatest learning happens at the intersection of contradictions, at the boundary at what you suspect, and what you know. Clearly, I understand (intuit) much more than the model, but can not quantify it, yet.
 
Note to self: The multiple equilibria of SPX (or probably any market) is possibly equal to the genus of the "curve" in some n-dimensional hyper-complex space (manifold).

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hypercomplex_manifold
http://www.ams.org/notices/200906/rtx090600713p.pdf

It is likely that the surface morphs continuously, and reduces and expands the number of holes. The higher the number of holes, the higher the number of equilibria, and hence the higher the VIX. This should relate to Boltzmans equation

S = k ln W

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boltzmann's_entropy_formula
 
Quote from nitro:

Note to self: The multiple equilibria of SPX (or probably any market) is possibly equal to the genus of the "curve" in some n-dimensional hyper-complex space.

http://www.ams.org/notices/200906/rtx090600713p.pdf

It is likely that the surface morphs continuously, and reduces and expands the number of holes. The higher the number of holes, the higher the number of equilibria, and hence the higher the VIX. This should relate to Boltzmans equation

S = k ln W
More...

OMG!
 
I've always admired the art of combining mathematics to the psychology of the markets. Afterall, history does repeat itself and if one could mathematcically model human psychology at two very significant emotional states .. fear & greed .. then one can develop an edge to trade these markets.

Keep up the good work nitro, I believe you're on the right path.
 
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