Kudos to MMs

[shortie]

looks like FV system is working now. Does anybody want to chip in and back up the system? I may only have $500 to invest

 

[stock777]

 

[arbs-r-us]

Quote from nitro:

09-01-11 02:03 PM

Calibrated FV 1258.67. FV 1385.26.

Note that FV is going higher, calibrated FV is going higher, and the market is going lower. The market is probably wrong and we go higher from here, green by EOD.

L SPY 121.01, just for fun.

Less than 4 weeks ago FV was 1385. Now its 923. Subtract out the book value of the SP500(611) and you have "premium to book" of $774 on Sep 1 and now its just $312? Stocks have lost 60% of their extrinsic value in 4 weeks? Ok. Sign me up for a subscription.

 

[kinggyppo]

Quote from arbs-r-us:

Less than 4 weeks ago FV was 1385. Now its 923. Subtract out the book value of the SP500(611) and you have "premium to book" of $774 on Sep 1 and now its just $312? Stocks have lost 60% of their extrinsic value in 4 weeks? Ok. Sign me up for a subscription.

well someone is going be wrong, its seems mkt pricing in no GDP growth and possible double dip recession, the latter appears to be already at the door. I could see the mkt getting back down to 1000 in a panic move. I am betting against it but it could happen.

 

[arbs-r-us]

Quote from kinggyppo:

well someone is going be wrong, its seems mkt pricing in no GDP growth and possible double dip recession, the latter appears to be already at the door. I could see the mkt getting back down to 1000 in a panic move. I am betting against it but it could happen.

My comment had nothing to do with "what the market might do" but rather what use is a model that has 60% swings in valuation in 4 weeks? 60% on a biotech stock? sure. 60% on the SP500, give me a break.

 

[shortie]

it is possible that FV hit a snag this summer but it actually works in 90% of market conditions. unfortunately, there is no way of knowing if this is true. going through the pains of forward testing seems very tough.

what level of the performance going forward would convince somebody like arb-r that the system is working?

 

[kinggyppo]

Quote from arbs-r-us:

My comment had nothing to do with "what the market might do" but rather what use is a model that has 60% swings in valuation in 4 weeks? 60% on a biotech stock? sure. 60% on the SP500, give me a break.

the model is pretty strange, I was talking in general terms. When nitro put up the Goldman research I thought he may have returned to sanity. Worse case scenario 2012 sp earnings 95 x 10 pe is 950 on the spx.

 

[nitro]

Quote from shortie:

it is possible that FV hit a snag this summer but it actually works in 90% of market conditions. unfortunately, there is no way of knowing if this is true. going through the pains of forward testing seems very tough.

what level of the performance going forward would convince somebody like arb-r that the system is working?

I don't think FV hit a snag this summer, although because you saw it work when it was nearly miraculous, to you anything that doesn't go back to those days will be a "snag". Over the summer, FV essentially broke even. The models is up again and is up for the year, although we gave back some today. Such is the nature of the animal.

My goal is not to convince anyone, but to continue to improve my understanding of markets until it is clear that I have something. At that point it won't be hard to get backing.

Ask yourself why these people continue to "contribute" to this thread who don't believe in it, and you will [may] come to your own truths as to their continued presence here.

 

[iceman1]

I'll tell you what is working now... my Winmau dartboard is out performing every other indicator...

the truth is... classic T/A, S/R, gaps, volume etc... simple concepts that worked back in the early 90s... IMHO still work today.

 

[nitro]

Quote from kinggyppo:

the model is pretty strange, I was talking in general terms. When nitro put up the Goldman research I thought he may have returned to sanity. Worse case scenario 2012 sp earnings 95 x 10 pe is 950 on the spx.

http://www.distressedvolatility.com/2011/08/secular-pe-ratio-bears-vs-earnings.html

I only link to it to show that there are differing opinions. Non of it means anything to me. I only post these things because it is the sort of thing you guys look at, and may find it of interest (I do too to some extent) and makes you feel confident that when someone agrees with you, it gives you emotional support that your positions may bear out, or if they don't you can blame it on consensus. I couldn't care less who agrees with me, only that the market eventually does. Sometimes I will be completely opposite consensus, and sometimes not. It is not a parameter in FV that I give more weight if more people agree with it or not.