Kudos to MMs

Quote from nitro at 10:23 am:

Calibrated FV, 1015.46. FV, 1151.26. Mid 1083.36.

Perfect timing, that is when the ES bottomed. Since then it is up almost 20 pts.

I am going to sell the reverse strategy, don't change anything!!!
 
"Italy's Debt Downgraded by S&P; Outlook Still Negative"

http://www.cnbc.com/id/44586211

For the first time it doesn't feel like this was leaked. Who in their right mind buys 1192 SPX lifting it 15 handles with this news on the burner? If SPX had ended on its lows (imo it was a down 30 day in the making whose -12 reality makes no sense), I would have been very weary of inside information.
 
Calibrated FV, 1000.25. FV, 1151.95. Mid 1076.10.

Markets going higher, FV going lower. This is the market hoping the FED will do something. Markets have a way of putting blinders on, and it may go higher on the same news. I argue that the near 100 handle gain from about 1125 to here has FED action priced in, but markets have a multiplier, and then they tend to price things in at least once. So, it remains to be seen....
 
Quote from nitro:

Calibrated FV, 1000.25. FV, 1151.95. Mid 1076.10.

Markets going higher, FV going lower. This is the market hoping the FED will do something. Markets have a way of putting blinders on, and it may go higher on the same news. I argue that the near 100 handle gain from about 1125 to here has FED action priced in, but markets have a multiplier, and then they tend to price things in at least once. So, it remains to be seen....

This analysis is absurd. Good luck.
 
Quote from nitro:

Calibrated FV, 1000.25. FV, 1151.95. Mid 1076.10.

Markets going higher, FV going lower. This is the market hoping the FED will do something. Markets have a way of putting blinders on, and it may go higher on the same news. I argue that the near 100 handle gain from about 1125 to here has FED action priced in, but markets have a multiplier, and then they tend to price things in at least once. So, it remains to be seen....

No, FV is the ultimate fade system giving the all clear to put max longs on.
 
Quote from nitro:

"Italy's Debt Downgraded by S&P; Outlook Still Negative". Who in their right mind buys 1192 SPX lifting it 15 handles with this news on the burner?

Haven't you been around long enough to know that the market does not move intuitively?
 
Calibrated FV, 941.55. FV, 1154.58. Mid 1048.06.

Calibrated FV has imploded, and I am not sure I trust it. Calibrated FV is pricing in at least a 65% of recession at this point.
 
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