Kudos to MMs

Well it has been a long time, but all things change. Calibrated FV, 1122.34. FV 1283.39. SPX 1165.24.

Shorting the market is more complicated because if i just go long the 55 delta puts, I would be buying very high vola. So for now I will use ES with stops at resistance.

S Sep ES 1164.75

I am not getting tons of edge. This is new territory for Calibrated FV, so it will be a learning experience.
 
Quote from nitro:

Well it has been a long time, but all things change. Calibrated FV, 1122.34. FV 1283.39. SPX 1165.24.

Shorting the market is more complicated because if i just go long the 55 delta puts, I would be buying very high vola. So for now I will use ES with stops at resistance.

S Sep ES 1164.75

I am not getting tons of edge. This is new territory for Calibrated FV, so it will be a learning experience.
More...

Ok, so let me get this straight... you have been bullish for nearly 200 handles straight down and now, after numerous & substantial losses you want to be short? A learning experience? Past tense, yes a learning experience and a very expensive one at that. The wildest and potentially most profitible period for trading since the gyrations of late 2008/early 2009 and you call it a learning experience? You seem to be quite an intellectual, yes I will give you that. But as a trader you don't rank. Not even bush league.
 
Quote from nitro:

Well it has been a long time, but all things change. Calibrated FV, 1122.34. FV 1283.39. SPX 1165.24.

Shorting the market is more complicated because if i just go long the 55 delta puts, I would be buying very high vola. So for now I will use ES with stops at resistance.

S Sep ES 1164.75

I am not getting tons of edge. This is new territory for Calibrated FV, so it will be a learning experience.
More...

And as for "buying very high vola", how is it any different than the "very high vola" you have been buying with each successive call purchase??? In fact EVERY SINGLE 55 DELTA CALL PURCHASE YOU WOULD HAVE MADE WOULD HAVE BEEN AT A HIGHER IV THAN THE 55 DELTA PUT AT THAT INSTANCE IN TIME. GUARANTEED.
 
delusions-of-grandeur-kitty-demotivational-posters-1308769935.jpg
 
Quote from nitro:

Well it has been a long time, but all things change. Calibrated FV, 1122.34. FV 1283.39. SPX 1165.24.

Shorting the market is more complicated because if i just go long the 55 delta puts, I would be buying very high vola. So for now I will use ES with stops at resistance.

S Sep ES 1164.75

I am not getting tons of edge. This is new territory for Calibrated FV, so it will be a learning experience.
More...

I consider it a near statistical impossibility to be wrong this many times in a row.
 
could the model be in fact backward looking? a lag of ~30 days? have you run tests to see if it is a good predictor of past market moves?
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top