Kudos to MMs

Calibrated FV 1258.67. FV 1385.26.

Note that FV is going higher, calibrated FV is going higher, and the market is going lower. The market is probably wrong and we go higher from here, green by EOD.

L SPY 121.01, just for fun.
 
Quote from nitro:

One more note on this chart. Look at 2008:Q1. Compare with 2011:Q2. The GDP number is almost identical, whereas every other metric in 2011 is stronger. Yet, look at the SPY level, we are lower in 2011:Q2 than in 2008:Q1.

Clearly there is something that is not captured by these fundamentals that is captured by price. It would be interesting to dig deeper - I am guessing business cycle, but that is far too vague...

I really like this chart.
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looking at bls stats, we haven't had this type of gdp contraction ever. 4 straight quarters down, there was continuous growth for 10-20 years at a pop, then the 2008-2009 period, take a look.

http://www.bea.gov/national/index.htm#gdp
 
Quote from nitro:

Calibrated FV 1258.67. FV 1385.26.

Note that FV is going higher, calibrated FV is going higher, and the market is going lower. The market is probably wrong and we go higher from here, green by EOD.

L SPY 121.01, just for fun.
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FAIL.
 
Quote from nitro:

Calibrated FV 1258.67. FV 1385.26.

Note that FV is going higher, calibrated FV is going higher, and the market is going lower. The market is probably wrong
More...

Let's say you have a model which predicts a specific day when Jesus comes down to Earth. The day comes, and Jesus is not here. Quite undisturbed, you say, "Jesus is probably wrong".
 
Quote from kinggyppo:

looking at bls stats, we haven't had this type of gdp contraction ever. 4 straight quarters down, there was continuous growth for 10-20 years at a pop, then the 2008-2009 period, take a look.

http://www.bea.gov/national/index.htm#gdp
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Thanks. More interesting data to digest! I don't immediately see what you are saying, but I just looked at the data in a cursory way.
 
Calibrated FV, 1316.30. FV 1404.55.

Believe it or not, model is not backing out a bigger % chance of recession out of market today than yesterday. Hmmmm.....Model is definitely saying that market is poised for a big move higher into year end, less exogenous events.

Standing bids at 1172, and 1142. I have a small SPY position that I put on, but it is inconsequential.
 
Quote from nitro:

Thanks. More interesting data to digest! I don't immediately see what you are saying, but I just looked at the data in a cursory way.
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look at the quarter to quarter gdp declines, they are pretty rare historically, from 2008-2009 there were at least 4 quarter to quarter declines in a row, I will let you parse the data.
 
Quote from nonlinear5:

Let's say you have a model which predicts a specific day when Jesus comes down to Earth. The day comes, and Jesus is not here. Quite undisturbed, you say, "Jesus is probably wrong".
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Nitro has you on ignore, has completely lost his marbles!
 
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