Kudos to MMs

Quote from kinggyppo:

the issue is what will be the next catalyst up or down, otherwise rallies will be sold, not sure what that will be at the moment.
More...
I agree but see below. Right now the market is probably giddy on a Jackson Hole announcement. Still, I am playing FV, not any of that.

The biggest worry I have is a recession. Stocks lose on average 40% of their value during a recession. So since we had lost nearly 20%, you can tell that the market has about a 37% probability of a recession.

I am increasing the complexity of the model to take GDP and other things into consideration soon. It is easy to say, but coming up with the equations to fit everything else is what counts. I have an idea of how to do it.

Here will be some inputs (I will discuss these, but not what is in it now)

Real GDP (Y/Y)
Monthly GDP
Chicago Fed National Activity Index
Chicago PMI
The Streettalk ISM Composite Index
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Survey
Philly Fed Survey
Dallas Fed Survey
Kansas City Fed Survey
The National Federation of Independent Business Survey
Leading economic indicator

The whole purpose of these indicators will be to give me some discount factor that will scale FV.
 
Quote from Maverick74:

Nitro, if you are open to criticism, I'll give you some. Otherwise, feel free to ignore this. In my opinion you are too focused on p&l and not enough on process. There is something very wrong with your process yet you cheer lead when the market goes up, and your critical of what you are doing when the market goes down. The process itself should not be correlated to your p&l. The p&l is just a by product. I've given this advice to all new traders that I talk to because I think they all fall into the same trap of "if I'm making money I'm doing something right and if I'm losing money I'm doing something wrong".
More...
I hear you and I appreciate your input.

I am not really cheering up or down because tomorrow FV could be below the market. But I do enjoy when I am making money and I don't like losing it. I am made up of blood and bones and tissue, and I am a very passionate person. I realize this about me, and I try to maintain a level head the best I can.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top