Kudos to MMs
- Thread starter nitro
- Start date
I tested your theory as proposed. I'll be happy to validate any others for you.
nonlinear,
Thanks I appreciate it. You did not test my theory as proposed, not even by a long shot. As I said, you don't have access to FV, nor are you using the same S/R levels that I use. You have a bias (subconsciously ?) that S/R levels can have value, and certainly that FV can have value.
The whole reason I initiated these thoughts is because I have a very good feel for how to get into a market, even fading one as difficult as this one. What I noticed is that my positions initially would almost always be proven correct by the market. My failure came because the market never crossed FV so that I would wait take profits far too long (like never recently since they all turned into losses).
The conclusion I came to is, either the entries are random and don't appear to be (in other words, coincidence), or they are not random, I have a genuine edge, but I ruin it by not taking very decent profits. I thought that the "system" you tested would help take profits, and maybe even point as to how to enter a market in light of volatility.
You may be interested in coding ACD in JBookTrader. Look at that thread if you want something similar to what I propose here, but one that is followed by many many traders.
Part of me thinks you're simply f*cking with us for a good laugh. The rest of me knows you well enough to know you're serious. I think you're a decent guy and you actually helped me in the past with hardware issues (colo-stuff).
Trading is 90% exits. How many times are you going to repeat that your entries were profitable at some point? 20 points in this market is a 30m bar on the chart.
Good entries and bad exits means that you need to tighten your vol-stop and take more than 1:1 risk. It's really that simple. With any luck your expectancy will actually improve due to an improvement in your hit-rate.
Not to berate you, but you did the same thing some years ago on ET chat. You went long ES and added on the way down which resulted in your looking for gainful employment. The point is that you may very well average yourself into oblivion. WTF wants to start over in their 40s?
What happens on your 1190 fairval figure (calibrated? wtf?)? Are you going to fade 1200, 1220....1245? I can't imagine what you're using for nodes/inputs and beyond some entertainment-value I have little interest, but this sh*t is doomed. How do you calibrate a hierarchical and complex model with many orders of convexity? (joking).
It's cliche, but trade what you see, not some arbitrary output from some bullsh*t model.
Trading is 90% exits. How many times are you going to repeat that your entries were profitable at some point? 20 points in this market is a 30m bar on the chart.
Good entries and bad exits means that you need to tighten your vol-stop and take more than 1:1 risk. It's really that simple. With any luck your expectancy will actually improve due to an improvement in your hit-rate.
Not to berate you, but you did the same thing some years ago on ET chat. You went long ES and added on the way down which resulted in your looking for gainful employment. The point is that you may very well average yourself into oblivion. WTF wants to start over in their 40s?
What happens on your 1190 fairval figure (calibrated? wtf?)? Are you going to fade 1200, 1220....1245? I can't imagine what you're using for nodes/inputs and beyond some entertainment-value I have little interest, but this sh*t is doomed. How do you calibrate a hierarchical and complex model with many orders of convexity? (joking).
It's cliche, but trade what you see, not some arbitrary output from some bullsh*t model.
a good trader once told me, never let a winning trade turn into a loser.