Kudos to MMs
- Thread starter nitro
- Start date
I am begining to believe that the good intentions (or so it seems) of keeping IRs low may actually be hurting rather than helping. Granted, if IRs are allowed to rise naturally to market induced levels instead of being kept artificially low by the FED, the stock market will probably initially be hit. There are theories that in fact it would not, not even immediately, as bond holders that have doubled on bonds to keep their utility constant, wouldn't need as many bonds yields to live on, and in fact may sell bonds to enter the stock market once their incomes from less bonds can pay bills. Interestingly, inflation would also come down on higher IRs->Stronger dollar, making those dollars go a longer way to buying necessities. This is the right positive feedback loop to get into, and once ignited it becomes self-sustaining.
Not only that, but if US companies will not hire US workers, one way around that is to strengthen the dollar. That means more investment from overseas, where those companies [may] have a very different outlook [can it be worse than our corporations?] on hiring, and it will also force US companies to try to get their profits at home, probably requiring hiring here. It also [may] solves the repatriation of the $1T in overseas accounts by US corporations since it is naturally attractive to them. I am really beginning to like this idea.
So, at first, it may appear that allowing IRs to rise may be a poison pill, but paradoxically, over the intermediate to longer term it may be exactly the solution to what appears to be an impossible task of getting people back to work, with the side effect of higher taxable-income for the government. A domino of good side-effects may follow suit.
A weak dollar is only in the interest of a very few titanic corporations that have sold the idea of a weak dollar is "good" to the unsuspecting public.
Not only that, but if US companies will not hire US workers, one way around that is to strengthen the dollar. That means more investment from overseas, where those companies [may] have a very different outlook [can it be worse than our corporations?] on hiring, and it will also force US companies to try to get their profits at home, probably requiring hiring here. It also [may] solves the repatriation of the $1T in overseas accounts by US corporations since it is naturally attractive to them. I am really beginning to like this idea.
So, at first, it may appear that allowing IRs to rise may be a poison pill, but paradoxically, over the intermediate to longer term it may be exactly the solution to what appears to be an impossible task of getting people back to work, with the side effect of higher taxable-income for the government. A domino of good side-effects may follow suit.
A weak dollar is only in the interest of a very few titanic corporations that have sold the idea of a weak dollar is "good" to the unsuspecting public.
F*ck! You just killed this rally Nitro. Think about your dad and niece.
Nothing to do. Stop remains 1159 SPX. Profit targets, let's not get ahead of ourselves...
Since I am long options, a natural question becomes, why not scalp gamma, especially in this environment of high vola? That is a very good question and I agree.
Mostly the reason is that I am trying not to complicate the issue here. The goal is to prove to myself that I can predict both direction and level in the SPX. If I can do that consistently (about 80% accuracy is what I am shooting for), everything else falls into place.
So far, the results have been no better than random albeit with pockets of eye-popping precision. The model has removed inappropriate panic and greed completely from my karma since I trust its general direction over longer (months) time frame, making it an outstanding investment indicator. As it improves, it will probably also help me on shorter time frames, which is where traders live.
Since I am long options, a natural question becomes, why not scalp gamma, especially in this environment of high vola? That is a very good question and I agree.
Mostly the reason is that I am trying not to complicate the issue here. The goal is to prove to myself that I can predict both direction and level in the SPX. If I can do that consistently (about 80% accuracy is what I am shooting for), everything else falls into place.
So far, the results have been no better than random albeit with pockets of eye-popping precision. The model has removed inappropriate panic and greed completely from my karma since I trust its general direction over longer (months) time frame, making it an outstanding investment indicator. As it improves, it will probably also help me on shorter time frames, which is where traders live.