Kudos to MMs

[Pekelo]

Quote from nitro:

I believe the concept is correct, .

You never really explained why there should be a FV. Look at it this way. If there was such a thing, chances are, someone beside you would have discovered it by now, and would be a billionaire.

Now you could say that might be some HFs are using this holy FV, but I really doubt it. Or you could say, it does exist, but NOBODY discovered it yet.

In that case, good luck discovering it, 3 years and at least 6 versions in the making....Oh yeah, and a couple of bucks lost....

But we would still like to hear the theory, what is the explanation for the FV's existence?

 

[trendlover]

Quote from Pekelo:

But we would still like to hear the theory, what is the explanation for the FV's existence? [/B]

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This is what nitro say on page 33 of the thread.
So maybe the "notion" FV is nitro's secret?

Quote from nitro:

I have nothing more to add.

Ok, I do have more to add. The unemployment # will be horrendous imo, or it will be revised to be so. I would not buy 820 this time around. I might take a shot at 782. I will always buy 742.

SPX closed extremely efficiently yesterday. ~842 was very close to Fair Value yesterday, all other things being equal.

NOTE: Fair Value is a terribly overloaded term in finance. I mean my notion of FV, not anything that you can point to and say he means that.

 

[nitro]

Quote from trendlover:

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This is what nitro say on page 33 of the thread.
So maybe the "notion" FV is nitro's secret?

:eek: :eek: :eek:

No? Really? You got that on page 33! Imagine that

 

[nitro]

I didn't participate in this rally, but my daughter and dad did

It was tough going - this was a trillion dollar day in swings back and forth. The equity markets become the FOREX market in terms of capital moved through it when VIX goes nuts.

 

[shortie]

Quote from shortie:

1392.25

we must see at least 100 rally really soon (by soon i mean tomorrow), or FV model must be scratched and rebuilt from the ground up.

almost exactly 100 pts from overnight lows! the model shall LIVE!

 

[nitro]

Calibrated "FV" on the close 1294.14.

It moves much faster to the upside than the downside. I need to rethink much.

 

[nitro]

I am laying low until I see a cross above 1172. People have asked in private as to why I am blind to the downside. I do not see it, I really don't. I believe this is a correction, and not the start of a new bear. Structural perhaps equal to anything else.

Some people are saying that the entire rally from 666 to 1370 is the mother of all dead cat bounces. If that is true, we are in for a monster move down. I am worried as to the right thing to do/councel for the investors in my family.

People say that the FED will step in under such dire circumstances, but markets, like human bodies, build immunity to each round of penicillin.

 

[Maverick74]

Quote from nitro:

I am laying low until I see a cross above 1172. People have asked in private as to why I am blind to the downside. I do not see it, I really don't. I believe this is a correction, and not the start of a new bear.

Some people are saying that the entire rally from 666 to 1370 is the mother of all dead cat bounces. If that is true, we are in for a monster move down. I am worried as to the right thing to do/councel for the investors in my family.

People say that the FED will step in under such dire circumstances, but markets, like human bodies, build immunity to each round of penicillin.

So now you're scrapping your model?

 

[nitro]

Quote from Maverick74:

So now you're scrapping your model?

No. I said I would not fade markets below 1172. That is what I am standing by.

That said, the model is about to become far far far more sophisticated. I am beginning to understand how and why the markets shifts and what it keys on the rotation in parameters and the clues thereof - even the politics behind it. The hard part is understanding how the equations fit together. It is not easy believe me - I am not even sure it is completely possible to program full automation at this time frame. It may require intervention by a human at some point...The hard part is that markets sometimes lead themselves because of inside information is very much a part of markets, like it or not. I have to realize that part and override (or at least proceed with caution) the model when something "smells."

Strangely or perhaps not, I have become a better trader because of it.

 

[nitro]

I feel like Nick Cage in "National Treasure" in the quest to find the treasure. Always one more clue, that just leads to another clue and never to the treasure itself. Entire generations of his family spent their lives...I hope this treasure search has a happy ending like that one does