Kudos to MMs

90-delta FED says nothing that changes anything they haven't already said, at one meeting or another. Another yawner.

1372. scratch-skip. 1372. scratch-skip. 1372...
 
Nothing to stop SPX from 1372 except the "unknown unknowns" now. That is just short term. Longer term, 1450 is _easily_ imminent. At least as per model as of today. But there will be some profit taking at 1372. FWIW.
 
Should take profits here at ESM1 1370 (SPX would open about 1373 ish which is a zone of resistance).

Hope for a pullback so you can get long again, because this is going much higher still....
 
Where to get in on the pullback? Ideally no higher than 1342, but it may easily go to say 1350 and take off again. On the other hand it may go back to somewhere around 1320 ish before heading higher.

Who knows? Pick a spot where you are comfortable. If you use ITM 75 delta call options to get long, at say when SPX goes to 1350 (if), a drop to 1320 won't hurt that much. On the other hand, after going to 1350, the market may rally back to 1372, only to form double topish looking patterns that may stall it. Now you are sitting on a wasting asset. So perhaps sell a (ratio'ed ?)14xx (1425 ?) call against the ITM 75 delta call to alleviate theta, and buy back the short call(s) on a breakout of 1372.

That is the art of trading! Choose an instrument, choose an entry, and forgive yourself because no one knows. I am pretty certain SPX goes much higher from here, but HOW it goes higher is just as important as when when using options.

Note that the R/R here is beginning to get thin. In the above scenario, we are probably risking 30 handles * slowing delta, (probably 20) to make hopfully 75 from 1350 to say 1425. This is decent for sure, but not like it was before when you were risking 20 to make 100.
 
SPX ~1343. Must enter back long here imo. See above post as to an opinion on one of the multitude of ways on how to do it.

You can sell the 1425 SPX call(s) options now (at the same time you go long a DIM call) in addition to being long a DIM call, if you think this is more likely to go sideways to lower, than it is to go back higher. Imo, I would not sell the 1425 call(s) until SPX was well on its way back to 1372, say at SPX 1365 to 1370, because I believe the market (SPX) is (quite) undervalued, within a strong trend higher in place. So sharp turns are likely. So when you go long here, I would not make it a spread initially. I would simply be 75 delta long, but you might choose to put on a spread at once. In this case, remember to do the long side first.

We will remember to buy back the sold calls on a clean breakout of 1372 and let the long DIM call run, if we get there.
 
Quote from nitro:

No, I distinguish between what my model says, and the market. I realize that my model could have just gone into the typical get stuck mode, but this time it truly feels different. I have acquired a kind of intuition for it, and I am confident that it has some truth to it.This version has been right so many times until very recently I can't even count.

As the old saying goes though, the market can stay "irrational" longer than you can stay solvent. I just shrug my shoulders...You know, this is nowhere near as crazy as 1999 - 2001 with the NAZ at 5000. That was truly the height of hubris, but lots of people got incinerated along the way shorting it at every turn...

Look at PCLN. You think that piece of shit is worth $460? I don't think it is worth $50!!!! GOOG? On a lucky day $400. CME? $200. NFLX? maybe $100. The list is endless. As long as there is a bigger fool to sell to, that is the price of whatever it is you are trying to sell something at, and the world is bursting with idiots. In fact, I am beginning to believe that the stupider you are, the better trader you are likely to make. Amazing that nature would optimize for morons.

What is the "right" price for SPX? IMO About 1280, and that is being gracious.

And suddenly its "grossly undervalued"????
 
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