Kudos to MMs
- Thread starter nitro
- Start date
There is talk that there is some resistance around 1300 SPX. Maybe minor resistance, 1302 ish, but this is mostly coincidence. There is no technical reason markets should pause here except for extraneous events.
This area will easily be taken out if these events begin to be memory and get priced in.
This area will easily be taken out if these events begin to be memory and get priced in.
On the other hand, there are economic reasons to worry:
"Why Housing Is Going Through a Double Dip"
http://www.cnbc.com/id/42231348
and
"Fed's Fisher: U.S. debt situation at tipping point"
http://en.news.maktoob.com/20090000...S_debt_situation_at_tipping_point/Article.htm
Hard to believe these are not priced in at this point, but markets often react to both the rumor and the news.
There is definite inflation in the US, but with at least 20 million people unemployed, wage inflation is almost an impossibility, at least on the low job skill end of the spectrum.
"Why Housing Is Going Through a Double Dip"
http://www.cnbc.com/id/42231348
and
"Fed's Fisher: U.S. debt situation at tipping point"
http://en.news.maktoob.com/20090000...S_debt_situation_at_tipping_point/Article.htm
Hard to believe these are not priced in at this point, but markets often react to both the rumor and the news.
There is definite inflation in the US, but with at least 20 million people unemployed, wage inflation is almost an impossibility, at least on the low job skill end of the spectrum.
I am sorry, I cannot. As I stated earlier, if I had money, I would just write a paper and describe the model in detail and some of the amazing (but hard won) discoveries I have made along the way, because my interest in life isn't how many pieces of paper with presidents printed on them I can acquire, but to discover truth and beauty (I know sounds like I am a nut..). On the other hand, I have to pay rent and save for retirement and save for college education and, you get the drift. My personality is that if I can help "you" (everyone) without hindering myself, I do it ten thousand times over. I do this in the hope that I can help in some small way without hurting myself.
I am very anxious because at any time this one parameter can invert on me again and I may be eating crow (although I now realize that is giving important information too, but it makes the model look bipolar and in general, you want functions with small inputs give you small outputs, etc, i.e., not chaotic). I still don't know what the right way to do it is. But for now, we gooooood.
BTW, I agree unbelievable is also a reasonable description. Were it not for the link that gave predictions close to the current FV, I don't know that I would have the courage to post it with a straight face. I laughed at those predictions when they came out too! It is clear that my model is not as sophisticated as theirs...although I wonder if theirs can give you the shorter term ups and downs...
http://www.distressedvolatility.com/2010/12/2011-s-forecasts-1250-to-1450-10y-yield.html
