Kudos to MMs

stock777 · Mar 3, 2011

most models are just justifications of bad opinions

Specterx · Mar 3, 2011

Quote from nitro:

I am beginning to believe that for the sake of the rest of the world, oil should not be priced in dollars anymore. Real suffering by tens of millions (hundreds of millions ?) people that are living hand to mouth is the result of current coupling. That is unacceptable.

The dollar is going, MUCH MUCH lower until the FED raises interest rates.

What does oil being "priced in dollars" have to do with anything?

Oil is a liquid (get it?) internationally traded commodity, just like the major currencies and gold. Its value in terms of those other commodities has nothing to do with the exchange value of the dollar - or at least, not in the linear and direct way implied here.

tradingjournals · Mar 3, 2011

Quote from nitro:

1. I never understood how in the 21st century, we have "Kings."

2. These countries belong to their people, not some guy with a title. But they have been brainwashed since birth to believe this crap.

1. Security of israel-- King and dictators are friends with israel (they have common enemies--arab street).

2. Brainwashed..= a myth that was washed away from the minds who observed the Egypt revolution. Every human loves freedom.

tradingjournals · Mar 3, 2011

Quote from shortie:

then your model may not reflect the realities of our civilization...

"A model is a lie that tells the truth"

adaption of Picasso's saying: "Art is a lie tha tells the truth".

stock777 · Mar 3, 2011

this model is dead. long live the model

tradingjournals · Mar 3, 2011

Quote from nitro:

When it rains, it pours on the poor.

Well said! I would also add that the poor, after the return of the sun, is the last one to get dry if he ever gets dry before the next rain.

tradingjournals · Mar 3, 2011

Quote from stock777:

this model is dead. long live the model

Do you mean as in the King-related saying, or do you mean something else?

nitro · Mar 4, 2011

The model and SPX are now almost in complete agreement:

FV 1315.71. SPX 1,317.58.

FWIW. I know that it went off the rails, and therefore can't really be trusted. I am still wrapping my head as to why it went bad, and I think I understand (a comment by Bernanke actually led me down the right path), but I don't know what to do with my knowledge, yet, so the model could easily go off the rails again.

It is amazing that having FV working again can put me in a good mood

stock777 · Mar 4, 2011

the notion that you can 'call' fv will either make you money by accident or cause you great pain and loss as expected.

theres a reason hedge funds play with opm

nitro · Mar 6, 2011

Quote from nitro:

Oil is too cheap by $50. One wonders what the real price would be if there weren't a cartel divisively keeping oil prices low. More interesting, what would the price of oil be if it weren't owned by "Princes" ?

Oil is getting scary (oil futures already up in the overnight market!). It is on a march that could easily take if parabolic and come to some sort of parity with the rest of the complex. This is one situation where I wish I were wrong. It devastates the poor. The rich just write it off.

Let's price oil in Yuan, see what happens. The world doesn't have the balls.

Sigh.