No, I distinguish between what my model says, and the market. I realize that my model could have just gone into the typical get stuck mode, but this time it truly feels different. I have acquired a kind of intuition for it, and I am confident that it has some truth to it.This version has been right so many times until very recently I can't even count.
As the old saying goes though, the market can stay "irrational" longer than you can stay solvent. I just shrug my shoulders...You know, this is nowhere near as crazy as 1999 - 2001 with the NAZ at 5000. That was truly the height of hubris, but lots of people got incinerated along the way shorting it at every turn...
Look at PCLN. You think that piece of shit is worth $460? I don't think it is worth $50!!!! GOOG? On a lucky day $400. CME? $200. NFLX? maybe $100. The list is endless. As long as there is a bigger fool to sell to, that is the price of whatever it is you are trying to sell something at, and the world is bursting with idiots. In fact, I am beginning to believe that the stupider you are, the better trader you are likely to make. Amazing that nature would optimize for morons.
What is the "right" price for SPX? IMO About 1280, and that is being gracious.
